“一带一路”有效实施:经济规模、地理与文化距离

发布时间：2018-05-13 05:06

本文选题：一带一路 + 经济规模　；参考：《经济学动态》2017年04期

【摘要】："一带一路"是我国经济发展新常态时期面对的可以增加贸易量的主要区域合作新模式。本文侧重从贸易层面探讨"一带一路"的有效实施机制,通过扩展引力模型,创建动态地理距离等指标,设计出能反映中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间贸易流量影响机制的不同层次的动态面板计量模型,运用面板数据广义矩(GMM)估计方法,分析了关键指标影响我国向主要国家出口可持续性的动态效果。本文的结论是,经济规模对贸易流量有显著正向影响;中线和南线样本的估计结果可以证明"地理位置上越相近的国家之间贸易流动规模越大";文化距离会对贸易流量有一定负向影响。因此,打造开放共赢的合作模式以及缩小文化差别能确保我国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易的可持续性增长,最终增进"一带一路"实施效果。
[Abstract]:"Belt and Road" is a new mode of regional cooperation which can increase the volume of trade in the new normal period of China's economic development. This paper focuses on the effective implementation mechanism of "Belt and Road" from the trade level. By extending the gravity model, it creates dynamic geographical distance and other indicators. This paper designs a dynamic panel econometric model which can reflect the influence mechanism of trade flows between China and the countries along "Belt and Road", and applies the generalized moment of panel data estimation method. The dynamic effects of key indicators on the sustainability of China's exports to major countries are analyzed. The conclusion of this paper is that the economic scale has a significant positive impact on trade flows; The estimation results of the samples from the central and southern lines can prove that "the larger the scale of trade flows between countries with similar geographical location", and the negative effect of cultural distance on trade flows. Therefore, to build a win-win cooperation model and reduce cultural differences can ensure the sustainable growth of trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road", and ultimately enhance the implementation effect of "Belt and Road".
【作者单位】：华侨大学统计学院;华侨大学数量经济研究院;厦门大学嘉庚学院国际经贸系;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十三五’时期供给侧改革与需求侧协同下的我国产业结构调整与升级研究”(16ZDA004) 华侨大学高层次人才科研启动项目“能源、环境政策与中国承接离岸外包比较优势——基于线性/非线性面板模型的经验研究”(16SKBS202)联合资助
【分类号】：F125

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