经济全球化逆流:挑战与应对

发布时间：2018-07-13 14:14

【摘要】：2016年三季度以来中国经济出现了稳中向好的势头,然而中国经济将面临一个乱象丛生的国际经济和金融环境。本文将当前国际经济的乱局置于经济全球化的视野之下,认为国际贸易增长放缓和世界各国经济严重分化引发了经济全球化逆流及全球化前景的不确定性。特朗普试图通过进口替代战略和有控制的双边贸易,打乱正在发展中的基于多边协议和自由贸易的全球化经济体系,以强化美国在世界经济中的主导格局。面对美国贸易保护主义的巨大挑战,中国短期内应多管齐下,务实解决资金外流与汇率贬值问题;未雨绸缪,沉着应对局部贸易战可能带来的不利局面。长期内应深化改革,打造富有活力的大国增长模式;高举多边协议和自由贸易的大旗,以"一带一路"为抓手,促进形成多元合作的全球化经济新格局。
[Abstract]:China's economy has stabilised and improved since the third quarter of 2016, but the Chinese economy will face a chaotic international economic and financial environment. This paper puts the current chaotic situation of international economy under the view of economic globalization, and holds that the slowing growth of international trade and the serious economic differentiation of various countries in the world have caused the reverse current of economic globalization and the uncertainty of its prospect. Trump is trying to strengthen the United States' dominance of the world economy through import substitution strategies and controlled bilateral trade to disrupt the evolving global economic system based on multilateral agreements and free trade. In the face of the huge challenge of U.S. trade protectionism, China should take a multi-pronged approach in the short term to pragmatically solve the problems of capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation, and prepare ahead of time to deal with the possible adverse situation caused by a local trade war. In the long run, we should deepen the reform, build a dynamic growth model of great powers, hold high the banner of multilateral agreement and free trade, take "Belt and Road" as the starting point, and promote the formation of a new pattern of pluralistic cooperation in the global economy.
【作者单位】：清华大学经济管理学院;中国证监会博士后科研工作站;
【分类号】：F114.41

【参考文献】