“一带一路”视角下中国-海合会FTA经济效应研究——基于GTAP的模拟分析
发布时间：2018-09-19 17:46
【摘要】：本文基于最新的GTAP9数据库,将石化产业作为敏感产业并设定3种不同的模拟情景分析了中国-海合会FTA对不同国家的经济影响,结果显示:中国-海合会FTA对成员国有较强的正面效应,但对双方共同的主要贸易伙伴和"一带一路"其他沿线国家产生不同程度的反向冲击。中国和海合会应加快谈判进程以早日获得贸易自由化收益,并规避受损国家可能的暗中掣肘,同时发挥中国-海合会FTA的示范效应和"多米诺骨牌"效应,拓展与"一带一路"沿线FTA的广度和深度,深入推进"一带一路"倡议。
[Abstract]:Based on the latest GTAP9 database, this paper takes petrochemical industry as a sensitive industry and sets up three different simulation scenarios to analyze the economic impact of China-GCC FTA on different countries. The results show that the China-GCC FTA has a strong positive effect on the member countries, but it has different degrees of reverse impact on the main trading partners and other countries along Belt and Road. China and GCC should speed up the process of negotiations in order to achieve early gains from trade liberalization, and avoid the possible hidden constraints of damaged countries, and at the same time bring into play the demonstration effect and "domino" effect of the China-GCC FTA, Expand the breadth and depth of FTA along Belt and Road, and push on the Belt and Road initiative in depth.
【作者单位】： 海南大学外国语学院;海南大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71563010) 海南省教育厅高等学校科学研究重点项目成果(项目编号:Hnky2017ZD-7) 海南省哲学社会科学2015年规划课题成果(项目编号:HNSK(ZC)15-24)
【分类号】：F744
本文编号：2250867
[Abstract]:Based on the latest GTAP9 database, this paper takes petrochemical industry as a sensitive industry and sets up three different simulation scenarios to analyze the economic impact of China-GCC FTA on different countries. The results show that the China-GCC FTA has a strong positive effect on the member countries, but it has different degrees of reverse impact on the main trading partners and other countries along Belt and Road. China and GCC should speed up the process of negotiations in order to achieve early gains from trade liberalization, and avoid the possible hidden constraints of damaged countries, and at the same time bring into play the demonstration effect and "domino" effect of the China-GCC FTA, Expand the breadth and depth of FTA along Belt and Road, and push on the Belt and Road initiative in depth.
【作者单位】： 海南大学外国语学院;海南大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71563010) 海南省教育厅高等学校科学研究重点项目成果(项目编号:Hnky2017ZD-7) 海南省哲学社会科学2015年规划课题成果(项目编号:HNSK(ZC)15-24)
【分类号】：F744
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