中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业出口潜力实证与增长空间估计

发布时间：2018-10-21 15:32

【摘要】：基建关联产业是支撑"一带一路"倡议推进的主要优势产业和依托。本文纳入中国与东南亚国家间文化、地缘相近及中国-东盟自贸区建成等因素,利用面板引力模型首次量化估计中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业的出口潜力和未来出口增长空间。研究发现,中国和东南亚国家的经济增长和文化联系纽带显著促进中国的基建关联产业出口,中国对泰国、印尼和菲律宾等国基建关联产业的出口潜力较大,而其余东南亚国家因经济规模和市场容量较小,出口潜力有限。2017-2021年内中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业出口增长空间大,应重点选取经济规模和市场容量较大、地缘和文化相通性高的合作对象,以充分发挥中国对东南亚国家基建关联产业的出口潜力。
[Abstract]:Infrastructure related industry is the support of "Belt and Road" initiative to promote the main advantages of industry and rely on. This paper takes into account such factors as culture, geographical proximity and the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area between China and Southeast Asian countries. The panel gravity model is used to estimate the export potential and future export growth space of China's infrastructure related industries to Southeast Asian countries for the first time. The study found that the economic growth and cultural ties between China and Southeast Asian countries significantly promote the export of China's infrastructure-related industries, and that China's export potential to infrastructure related industries such as Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines has great potential. However, the other Southeast Asian countries have limited export potential due to their small economic scale and market capacity. In 2017-2021, China's exports of infrastructure related industries to Southeast Asian countries have a large growth space, so we should focus on the economic scale and market capacity. In order to give full play to China's export potential to infrastructure related industries of Southeast Asian countries.
【作者单位】：浙江科技学院经管学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“微观企业视角的‘一带一路’国际产能合作风险防范研究”(项目编号:17BJY012)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F752.62

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