中国与中东欧国家贸易效率及潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的分析
发布时间：2018-11-05 20:39
【摘要】："一带一路"背景下,中国与中东欧国家之间的贸易发展迅速,中东欧成为中国"陆上丝绸之路"建设中非常重要的贸易伙伴。该文选取了中国与22个国家2007年至2014年的贸易面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型着重分析了中国与中东欧各国的贸易效率与贸易潜力。结果表明:中国与中东欧各国的贸易效率总体较低,在0.3-0.5之间波动。未来,双边贸易潜力及中国对中东欧的单向出口潜力都较大。从中国与中东欧贸易效率的影响因素来看,GDP、双方人口、双方人均收入差异、"一带一路"策略等因素促进双边贸易,距离、关税水平、欧盟一体化等因素阻碍双边贸易。未来,应从"一带一路"建设、贸易便利化、优势产业合作等方面着手,进一步提高双边贸易效率,释放贸易潜力。
[Abstract]:Under the background of Belt and Road, the trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries has developed rapidly, and Central and Eastern Europe has become a very important trade partner in the construction of China's "land Silk Road". In this paper, the trade panel data of China and 22 countries from 2007 to 2014 are selected, and the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are analyzed by using the stochastic frontier gravity model. The results show that the trade efficiency between China and Central and Eastern European countries is generally low, fluctuating between 0.3 and 0.5. In the future, bilateral trade potential and China's one-way export potential to Central and Eastern Europe are great. From the point of view of the influence factors of trade efficiency between China and Central and Eastern Europe, the population of GDP, and the difference of income per capita of both sides, the strategy of "Belt and Road" and other factors to promote bilateral trade, distance, tariff level, European Union integration and other factors hinder bilateral trade. In the future, we should further improve bilateral trade efficiency and release trade potential from the aspects of "Belt and Road" construction, trade facilitation and superior industrial cooperation.
【作者单位】： 青岛理工大学经贸学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“汇率不对称变动、异质性传导与中国对外贸易结构演进研究”(项目编号:16BJL087) 山东省名校工程专业建设与教学改革项目“国际经济与贸易专业与职业标准相衔接的课程与教学内容体系探索”(项目编号:HY9080) 青岛理工大学校人文社科专项基金“中国与拉美双边贸易的生态成本与利益研究”(项目编号:203000100070005-c2014-205)的资助
【分类号】：F752.7
[Abstract]:Under the background of Belt and Road, the trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries has developed rapidly, and Central and Eastern Europe has become a very important trade partner in the construction of China's "land Silk Road". In this paper, the trade panel data of China and 22 countries from 2007 to 2014 are selected, and the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are analyzed by using the stochastic frontier gravity model. The results show that the trade efficiency between China and Central and Eastern European countries is generally low, fluctuating between 0.3 and 0.5. In the future, bilateral trade potential and China's one-way export potential to Central and Eastern Europe are great. From the point of view of the influence factors of trade efficiency between China and Central and Eastern Europe, the population of GDP, and the difference of income per capita of both sides, the strategy of "Belt and Road" and other factors to promote bilateral trade, distance, tariff level, European Union integration and other factors hinder bilateral trade. In the future, we should further improve bilateral trade efficiency and release trade potential from the aspects of "Belt and Road" construction, trade facilitation and superior industrial cooperation.
【作者单位】： 青岛理工大学经贸学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“汇率不对称变动、异质性传导与中国对外贸易结构演进研究”(项目编号:16BJL087) 山东省名校工程专业建设与教学改革项目“国际经济与贸易专业与职业标准相衔接的课程与教学内容体系探索”(项目编号:HY9080) 青岛理工大学校人文社科专项基金“中国与拉美双边贸易的生态成本与利益研究”(项目编号:203000100070005-c2014-205)的资助
【分类号】：F752.7
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