中国与“一带一路”国家贸易潜力及影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-16 19:51

【摘要】：2013年习近平总书记提出构建“丝绸之路经济带”和21世纪“海上丝绸之路”简称“一带一路”的战略构想。在“一带一路”战略的大背景下,如何发挥本国优势,尽力排除阻碍双边贸易的各种因素,充分挖掘与沿线国家和区域的贸易潜力,加强与沿线国家的贸易往来成为中国发展国际贸易的重点。本文选取“一带一路”沿线77个国家为研究样本,对中国与沿线国家贸易发展情况、潜力和影响因素进行研究。首先通过现状分析,分析了2001-2015年“一带一路”国家在中国对外贸易中的地位变化,中国与沿线贸易的区域结构和贸易商品结构以及贸易差额变化。研究发现“一带一路”沿线是中国重要的进出口市场,中国对“一带一路”沿线进出口商品中,化学制品、塑料和橡胶和交通运输设备等产品未来贸易潜力较大。不同国家和区域由于资源禀赋不同,中国与之贸易的商品结构也有所差异。然后将随机前沿方法运用到传统的引力模型中,建立时变随机前沿引力模型,通过实证研究,探讨影响中国与“一带一路”国家贸易的自然影响因素和贸易潜力,最后在此基础之上采用一步法建立贸易非效率模型分析了影响贸易的人为因素。实证研究表明,两国人均GDP、人口和距离是影响中国与沿线贸易的重要因素,共同边界争端问题处理好的基础上,两国具有共同边界能够促进贸易往来。由于中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易受到是否签订自由贸易协定、贸易及运输相关基础设施质量、海关手续效率、经济自由度和班轮运输相关指数等人为阻碍因素的影响,中国与沿线国家的贸易仍有较大的潜力,“一带一路”各国中属于潜力巨大型的国家较多。为了进一步提高贸易效率,应加强贸易基础设施的建设和改善,妥善处理国家边界争端问题,提高贸易便利化水平,并针对不同区域采取相应的贸易策略等。
[Abstract]:In 2013, General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the strategic idea of constructing "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "Maritime Silk Road" for short "Belt and Road" in the 21st century. Against the background of the "Belt and Road" strategy, how to give full play to our national advantages, try our best to remove all kinds of factors that hinder bilateral trade, and fully tap the trade potential with countries and regions along the route, Strengthening trade with countries along the route has become the focus of China's development of international trade. In this paper, 77 countries along Belt and Road are selected as research samples to study the development, potential and influencing factors of trade between China and the countries along the route. Firstly, the paper analyzes the status change of "Belt and Road" country in China's foreign trade from 2001 to 2015, the regional structure of China's trade with China along the route, the commodity structure of trade and the change of trade balance. It is found that Belt and Road is an important import and export market in China, and China has a great potential for future trade in chemical products, plastics, rubber and transportation equipment. Different countries and regions have different commodity structure because of different resource endowment. Then the stochastic frontier method is applied to the traditional gravity model, and the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model is established. Through empirical research, the natural factors and trade potential that affect the trade between China and Belt and Road are discussed. Finally, a one-step trade inefficiency model is used to analyze the human factors affecting trade. The empirical study shows that the average GDP, population and distance are the important factors that affect the trade between China and China along the route. On the basis of dealing well with the issue of common border dispute, the common border between the two countries can promote trade exchanges. China's trade with "Belt and Road" countries is affected by man-made obstacles such as whether to sign free trade agreements, the quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, the efficiency of customs procedures, the degree of economic freedom and the liner shipping related index. China's trade with countries along the route still has great potential, and Belt and Road is a large potential country. In order to further improve trade efficiency, we should strengthen the construction and improvement of trade infrastructure, properly deal with national border disputes, improve the level of trade facilitation, and adopt corresponding trade strategies for different regions.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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