中国外贸增速变化的行业差异性——基于全球价值链参与度视角

发布时间：2018-11-17 15:50

【摘要】：当前,中国出口贸易增速虽然在整体层面上出现大幅下滑,但从行业层面看却表现出巨大的差异性。通过特征事实的考察和初步的相关性分析可以发现,行业层面出口增速变化表现出的差异性与全球价值链分工参与程度的差异性有关。因此在全球经济进入深度调整期,尤其是全球价值链分工边际深化难度逐步加大的背景下,以及中国经济发展进入"新常态",尤其是步入传统比较优势逐步丧失的新阶段后,中国需要依托技术进步等构筑新型比较优势,夯实进一步融入乃至扎根全球价值链的基础;另一方面,应抓住和充分利用"一带一路"倡议提供的机遇,尽快构建起中国自身的全球价值链。这不仅是实现中国出口贸易"稳增长"的战略举措,也是实现出口贸易转型升级和发展更高水平开放型经济的关键所在。
[Abstract]:At present, although the growth rate of China's export trade has dropped sharply on the overall level, it has shown great differences at the industry level. Through the investigation of the characteristic facts and the preliminary correlation analysis, it can be found that the difference of export growth rate at the industry level is related to the difference of the degree of participation in the division of labor in the global value chain. Therefore, the global economy has entered a period of deep adjustment, especially in the context of the increasing difficulty of deepening the marginal division of labor in global value chains, and China's economic development has entered a "new normal", especially after entering a new stage of gradual loss of traditional comparative advantage. China needs to rely on technological progress to build a new comparative advantage and consolidate the basis for further integration and even take root in the global value chain; On the other hand, we should seize and make full use of the opportunity provided by Belt and Road's initiative to construct China's own global value chain as soon as possible. This is not only a strategic measure to realize the "steady growth" of China's export trade, but also the key to the transformation and upgrading of export trade and the development of a higher level of open economy.
【作者单位】：南京审计大学政府审计学院;南京审计大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球经济深度调整背景下我国外贸增速变化机理及对策研究”(项目编号:16AJY018) 江苏高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“苏南资本市场研究中心”项目(项目编号:17ZD018)
【分类号】：F752

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