“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国出口的影响
发布时间：2018-11-25 18:53
【摘要】：自2013年中国国家主席习近平提出"一带一路"战略以来,我国与"一带一路"沿线国家的联系日益紧密,与该区域国家的贸易逐年增加。但同时应该注意的是,我国与沿线大多数国家之间的贸易水平还处于比较低的阶段,还存在着很大的提升空间。自2008年美国"次贷危机"以来,我国经济的发展速度逐渐放缓。增加我国的贸易出口,使我国经济的增长速度保持在一个合理范围之内,已成为我国现阶段经济发展的主要任务。在现代国际贸易中,贸易双方通常会选择采用提高两国贸易便利化水平的方法来促进双方的贸易增长。为了提高我国对"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易出口,对沿线国家的贸易便利化水平进行测算并找出我国向这一地区出口过程中的主要制约因素,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文在研究过程中,主要拟解决三个问题:"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易便利化水平如何?贸易便利化水平对我国的出口是否具有促进作用?贸易便利化指标体系中的四个一级指标对我国的出口所起的作用是否相同?针对这三个问题,本文通过对相关理论和文献的学习,结合"一带一路"沿线国家的实际情况,构建了一套包含四个一级指标(口岸效率、海关与贸易环境、规制环境、金融与电子商务)和二十个二级指标的贸易便利化指标体系。之后使用层次分析法及yaahp软件对所构建的二级指标进行了权重赋值,最后测算出了"一带一路"沿线47个主要国家在2011-2015年的贸易便利化水平。从测算结果中可以看到,"一带一路"沿线大部分国家的贸易便利化水平程度还比较低,仅有新加坡、阿联酋等少数国家处于十分便利的阶段,其他国家都处于一般便利和不便利的阶段。我国的贸易便利化水平处于一般便利阶段,但与贸易便利化水平较高的国家相比还存在着很大的差距。在贸易便利化水平与我国出口之间的实证分析中,本文使用了扩展的引力模型的分析方法,对"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易便利化水平与我国向"一带一路"沿线国家整体以及三个国家区域(东亚、东南亚及南亚国家区域,中亚、西亚及非洲国家区域,中东欧国家区域)的出口分别进行了混合最小二乘法分析,得出贸易便利化水平的提高能够促进我国向"一带一路"沿线国家整体和三个国家区域的贸易出口。最后,又分别使用组成贸易便利化指标体系的四个一级指标对我国向"一带一路"沿线国家整体及上述三个国家区域的出口进行回归分析,得出了以下结论:贸易便利化各一级指标均对我国的贸易出口起着促进作用;对于不同区域的国家,贸易便利化各一级指标所起作用不同。最后,针对前面分析所得出的结论,分别从国内和国外两个角度给出了相关政策建议。在国内建议方面,应该积极提高我国自身的贸易便利化水平;在国外建议方面,我国应该积极加强与"一带一路"沿线国家的合作力度来不断优化双方之间的贸易便利化水平。
[Abstract]:Since the first strategy of President Xi Jinping of China in 2013, China has become more and more closely related to the country along the road, and the trade with the countries in the region has increased year by year. At the same time, it should be noted that the level of trade between China and the majority of the countries along the line is still at a relatively low stage, and there is also a large lifting space. Since the "subloan crisis" of the United States in 2008, the speed of our country's economy has gradually slowed. To increase our country's trade export, keep the growth rate of our economy in a reasonable range, has become the main task of our country's economic development at the present stage. In modern international trade, the two parties will often choose to adopt a method of improving the trade facilitation level of the two countries to promote the trade growth of both sides. In order to improve our country's trade export to the country along the road, the trade facilitation level of the country along the line is calculated and the main restriction factor of our country's export process is found out, which is of great practical significance. In the course of the study, the paper mainly intends to solve three problems: how is the trade facilitation level of the countries along the "One Belt and One Road" line? Does the level of trade facilitation play a catalytic role in the export of our country? Are the four first-level indicators in the trade facilitation indicator system the same for our country's exports? In view of these three problems, this paper constructs a set of four-level indicators (port efficiency, customs and trade environment and regulatory environment) through the study of the relevant theories and the literature, in combination with the actual situation of the country along the "One Belt and One Road" line. The index system of trade facilitation for finance and e-commerce) and twenty-two indicators. Then, using the analytic hierarchy process and the yahp software, the weights of the constructed secondary indexes are given, and the trade facilitation level of the 47 major countries along the "One Belt and One Road" line in 2011-2015 is calculated. From the results of the calculation, it can be seen that the level of trade facilitation in most countries along the "One Belt and One Road" is still low, and only a few countries such as Singapore and the United Arab Emirates are in a very convenient phase, and other countries are in general and inconvenient phases. The level of trade facilitation in our country is at a general convenience stage, but there is still a large gap between countries with higher levels of trade facilitation. In the empirical analysis between the level of trade facilitation and our country's exports, this paper uses the extended gravity model to analyze the trade facilitation level of the country along the one-way line and the whole country along the one-way line and three countries (East Asia, The export of South-East and South-Asian countries, Central Asia, Western Asia and the African countries, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries, respectively, is subjected to a mixed least-square analysis, It is concluded that the improvement of the level of trade facilitation can promote the trade exports of our country to the national and three national regions along the "One Belt and One Road". Finally, four first-level indicators, which make up the index system of trade facilitation, are used to carry out the regression analysis to the country in the "One Belt and One Road" and the export of the above-mentioned three countries, and the following conclusions are drawn: The first-level indicators on trade facilitation play a catalytic role in the export of trade in our country; for countries in different regions, trade facilitation has a different effect on the first-level indicators. Finally, for the conclusion from the previous analysis, the relevant policy suggestions are given from both domestic and foreign angles, respectively. In terms of domestic suggestions, we should actively improve the trade facilitation level of our country; on the other hand, we should actively strengthen the cooperation with the countries along the "One Belt and One Road" to optimize the trade facilitation level between the two countries.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62
本文编号：2357092
[Abstract]:Since the first strategy of President Xi Jinping of China in 2013, China has become more and more closely related to the country along the road, and the trade with the countries in the region has increased year by year. At the same time, it should be noted that the level of trade between China and the majority of the countries along the line is still at a relatively low stage, and there is also a large lifting space. Since the "subloan crisis" of the United States in 2008, the speed of our country's economy has gradually slowed. To increase our country's trade export, keep the growth rate of our economy in a reasonable range, has become the main task of our country's economic development at the present stage. In modern international trade, the two parties will often choose to adopt a method of improving the trade facilitation level of the two countries to promote the trade growth of both sides. In order to improve our country's trade export to the country along the road, the trade facilitation level of the country along the line is calculated and the main restriction factor of our country's export process is found out, which is of great practical significance. In the course of the study, the paper mainly intends to solve three problems: how is the trade facilitation level of the countries along the "One Belt and One Road" line? Does the level of trade facilitation play a catalytic role in the export of our country? Are the four first-level indicators in the trade facilitation indicator system the same for our country's exports? In view of these three problems, this paper constructs a set of four-level indicators (port efficiency, customs and trade environment and regulatory environment) through the study of the relevant theories and the literature, in combination with the actual situation of the country along the "One Belt and One Road" line. The index system of trade facilitation for finance and e-commerce) and twenty-two indicators. Then, using the analytic hierarchy process and the yahp software, the weights of the constructed secondary indexes are given, and the trade facilitation level of the 47 major countries along the "One Belt and One Road" line in 2011-2015 is calculated. From the results of the calculation, it can be seen that the level of trade facilitation in most countries along the "One Belt and One Road" is still low, and only a few countries such as Singapore and the United Arab Emirates are in a very convenient phase, and other countries are in general and inconvenient phases. The level of trade facilitation in our country is at a general convenience stage, but there is still a large gap between countries with higher levels of trade facilitation. In the empirical analysis between the level of trade facilitation and our country's exports, this paper uses the extended gravity model to analyze the trade facilitation level of the country along the one-way line and the whole country along the one-way line and three countries (East Asia, The export of South-East and South-Asian countries, Central Asia, Western Asia and the African countries, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries, respectively, is subjected to a mixed least-square analysis, It is concluded that the improvement of the level of trade facilitation can promote the trade exports of our country to the national and three national regions along the "One Belt and One Road". Finally, four first-level indicators, which make up the index system of trade facilitation, are used to carry out the regression analysis to the country in the "One Belt and One Road" and the export of the above-mentioned three countries, and the following conclusions are drawn: The first-level indicators on trade facilitation play a catalytic role in the export of trade in our country; for countries in different regions, trade facilitation has a different effect on the first-level indicators. Finally, for the conclusion from the previous analysis, the relevant policy suggestions are given from both domestic and foreign angles, respectively. In terms of domestic suggestions, we should actively improve the trade facilitation level of our country; on the other hand, we should actively strengthen the cooperation with the countries along the "One Belt and One Road" to optimize the trade facilitation level between the two countries.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62
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