“一带一路”战略下中俄双边贸易的竞争性、互补性及发展潜力

发布时间：2018-12-29 20:27

【摘要】：中俄双边贸易额近期下降明显,但两国经济结构互补性强及合作空间广阔的局面没有改变。首先,本文利用显示性竞争优势指数估算了中俄两国出口竞争优势,指出中国在劳动密集型产品出口方面存在很强显示性竞争优势,而俄罗斯在初级产品出口方面存在很强显示性竞争优势。其次,本文利用贸易互补性指数估算了两国贸易的互补性。就中国对俄罗斯的出口互补性来看,两国间劳动密集型制成品的互补性较强。从俄罗斯对中国的出口看,其初级产品综合互补性指数呈现上升趋势。再次,本文使用拓展引力模型,以新兴市场国家为样本,估算了中俄双边贸易发展潜力。从贸易潜力分析结果看,中俄间具有显著贸易合作潜力。最后,本文给出"一带一路"战略下加强中俄经贸合作的对策。
[Abstract]:The bilateral trade volume between China and Russia has declined markedly recently, but the situation of the two countries' economic structure is highly complementary and there is broad scope for cooperation has not changed. First of all, this paper estimates the export competitive advantage of China and Russia by using the index of display competitive advantage, and points out that China has a strong competitive advantage in the export of labor-intensive products. Russia has a strong competitive advantage in the export of primary products. Secondly, the trade complementarity index is used to estimate the trade complementarity between the two countries. In terms of the complementarity of China's exports to Russia, the labor-intensive manufactured goods between the two countries are highly complementary. From Russia's exports to China, its primary product comprehensive complementary index shows an upward trend. Thirdly, using the extended gravity model, we estimate the potential of bilateral trade between China and Russia with emerging market countries as a sample. From the results of trade potential analysis, China-Russia has significant potential for trade cooperation. Finally, this paper gives the countermeasures of strengthening the economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia under Belt and Road's strategy.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“构建开放型经济新体制的重点及基本框架研究”(15ZDA056),主持人:崔日明辽宁省社科基金重点项目“一带一路战略下辽宁对外开放格局研究”(L16AJL005),主持人:刘志中辽宁大学亚洲研究中心项目“中韩自由贸易协定生效后东北地区对韩经贸合作研究”(Y201601),主持人:刘志中
【分类号】：F752.7;F755.12

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