“一带一路”背景下中国出口三元边际特征及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2019-03-22 20:20

【摘要】：本文利用HS6分位商品贸易数据分析了中国与"一带一路"沿线国家商品出口贸易增长的三元边际特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明:虽然"以量取胜"依然是拉动出口增长的主要模式,但是价格边际对贸易增长的促进作用也逐步显现;进一步划分7个区域的研究发现,数量边际带动贸易增长的作用在大部分区域都很显著;从影响因素来看,出口经验和经济制度的相关变量成为影响三元边际增长的重要因素;由于不同区域对三元边际影响的反应差异较大,政府可以根据各区域对三元边际的不同反应,出台一系列相关指导意见,引导企业有重点地对各区域实施出口,逐步改变出口增长模式。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the three-dimensional marginal characteristics of the growth of commodity export trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" and its influencing factors by using the HS6 quantifiable commodity trade data. The results show that although "winning by quantity" is still the main mode of promoting export growth, the role of price margin in promoting trade growth also appears gradually. The study of further dividing seven regions shows that the effect of quantity margin on trade growth is significant in most regions, and from the perspective of influencing factors, export experience and related variables of economic system become the important factors that influence the marginal growth of three variables. Because the response of different regions to the ternary marginal impact is quite different, the government can issue a series of relevant guidance in accordance with the different responses of each region to the ternary marginal, so as to guide enterprises to implement export to each region in a focused manner. We will gradually change the pattern of export growth.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：教育部国别和区域研究2016-2017年度指向性课题“亚欧会议(ASEM)成立20周年背景下机制未来10年发展方向及我方建议”(17GBQY114) 国家自然科学基金项目“基于价值链的‘一带一路’经贸投资和产业转移研究”(71441039) 陕西省社会科学基金项目“上海自贸区示范效应推进陕西对外经济发展的对策研究”(2016D053)
【分类号】：F752.62

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