中国水储量时空变化及其对气象水文因素的响应研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 16:23

本文选题：GRACE + GLDAS　；参考：《鲁东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着气候变化影响的加剧和社会经济的高速发展,中国水资源短缺与人们需求之间的矛盾越来越突出。因此,掌握中国陆地水储量的时空变化规律,研究水储量变化与气象水文因素的响应关系,具有巨大的经济效益和社会意义。GRACE卫星广泛应用为陆地水储量变化的研究提供了一种新的途径。本文以GRACE、GLDAS数据为主要数据源,采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验法和经验正交函数(EOF)等方法,分析2003-2015年中国水储量的时空变化特征。然后,利用线性相关分析、偏相关和复相关分析方法,分析了中国各地区水储量对降水、蒸散发、径流变化的响应关系。最后,根据水储量异常量和水储量异常所持续的时间,对典型区旱涝灾害事件进行定量的描述。本文的主要结论如下:(1)研究发现经过比例系数校正的GRACE Tellus陆地栅格数据,恢复了局部地区水储量变化的细节特征。对比GRACE和GLDAS水储量数据可以发现,中国大部分地区GRACE和GLDAS估算的水储量变化规律具有很好的一致性,但是由于GLDAS模型数据缺少陆地水循环的部分环节,并且模型参数设置有限,导致两者在局部地区存在一定的差异。(2)由于受自然和人为因素的影响,中国各地区水储量的年内和年际变化规律存在明显差异,在水储量年内变化中,全国除了东北和青藏高原,其他地区均表现出明显的季节性变化特征;在年际变化中,东北、华南、藏北高原水储量呈增加趋势,增加速率分别为0.36cm/a、0.72cm/a、0.38cm/a,局部地区的水储量增加速率达到2.7cm/a。(3)在水储量年内变化过程中,降水对水储量的影响比较明显,方差解释量为69.2%,而受气象水文因素综合影响较大的区域主要分布在湿润半湿润区,部分分布在内蒙古高原东部、新疆西南部、甘肃西北部地区;在年际变化中,径流是影响水储量变化主要因素,方差解释量为62.1%,水储量变化受气象水文因素综合影响较大的区域主要集中在中国东北、东南沿海以及广西、贵州等地,部分分布在青藏高原可可西里地区和新疆西北部地区。(4)观测时段内中国的水储量异常的时空分布,具体表现为自西向东的地域变化特征,与地形、气候的梯度变化具有较好的一致性。对比分析东北地区水储量异常指数(TWSA)和scPDSI干旱指数时空变化的相关关系,验证了GRACE数据可识别旱涝灾害的能力。通过后相差分法计算各时段水储量的变化速率,结合水储量的亏损/盈余量,可以定量描述水储量异常状态下的水文过程,研究结果将有助于政府防洪、抗旱工作的实施以及水资源合理分配。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the intensification of the influence of climate change and the rapid development of social economy, the contradiction between the shortage of water resources and the demand of people is becoming more and more prominent. Therefore, it is of great economic and social significance to master the temporal and spatial changes of the reserves of the land water in China and to study the relationship between the changes of water reserves and the meteorological and hydrological factors, which have great economic and social significance.G RACE satellite is widely used as a new way to study the change of land water reserves. This paper uses GRACE and GLDAS data as the main data source, uses Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test method and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the state water reserves in 2003-2015 years. Then, the linear phase is used. The response relationship of water reserves to precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff changes in various regions of China is analyzed by means of correlation analysis, partial correlation and complex correlation analysis. Finally, according to the duration of abnormal water reserves and water reserves abnormality, the drought and flood events in typical areas are described quantitatively. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) research and discovery are compared. The GRACE Tellus land grid data corrected by the example coefficient restore the details of the changes in the water reserves in the local area. Compared with the GRACE and GLDAS water reserves data, it is found that the estimation of the water reserves of GRACE and GLDAS in most areas of China has a good consistency, but because the GLDAS model data lacks the partial ring of the land water circulation. There are some differences in local areas. (2) due to natural and artificial factors, there are obvious differences in the annual and interannual variation of water reserves in various regions of China. In the year of water reserves, the whole country shows a distinct season in addition to the northeast and the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. In the interannual change, the water reserves in Northeast, Southern China and Northern Tibet are increasing, the increase rate is 0.36cm/a, 0.72cm/a, 0.38cm/a respectively. The increase rate of water reserves in the local area is 2.7cm/a. (3) in the process of the change of water reserves, the effect of precipitation on water reserves is more obvious, the variance explanation is 69.2%, and the gas is compressed. The areas of hydrological factors which have a comprehensive influence are mainly distributed in humid and semi humid areas, partly in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia plateau, southwest of Xinjiang, and northwest of Gansu. In the interannual change, the runoff is the main factor affecting the change of water reserves, the variance interpretation is 62.1%, and the change of water reserves is greatly influenced by the meteorological and hydrological factors. The region is mainly concentrated in Northeast China, the southeast coast and Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, which are partly distributed in the cocoa west region of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the northwest of Xinjiang. (4) the spatial and temporal distribution of water reserves anomaly in China during the observation period is specific, which is in good agreement with the terrain and the gradient of climate. The correlation between the water reserve anomaly index (TWSA) and the spatial and temporal variation of the scPDSI drought index is compared and analyzed. The ability of the GRACE data to identify the drought and flood disaster is verified. The variation rate of the water reserves in each period is calculated by the post phase difference method, and the water reserves can be quantified by the loss / surplus of the water reserves. The results of the study will help the government to carry out flood control, drought relief and rational allocation of water resources.
【学位授予单位】：鲁东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P339;TV213

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