雷暴天气下的改航模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 14:59

本文选题：空中交通管理 + 雷暴天气　；参考：《中国民航大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：雷暴天气会威胁飞行安全,影响航班正点率。实施改航飞行可以安排航空器绕过飞行限制区。本文首先对雷暴天气下飞行限制区的划设进行研究,然后以此为基础建立了不同雷暴天气下的改航模型,最后针对航线交叉点受雷暴天气影响建立改航模型。1.提出基于马尔科夫链的飞行限制区划设模型。通过直接处理雷暴图,解析出雷暴的边界,基于马尔科夫状态转移矩阵来模拟雷暴的运动和变化情况,求解出动态飞行限制区,为不同雷暴天气下的改航模型做基础。2.块状雷暴分为单体雷暴和超单体雷暴。针对单体雷暴下的改航问题,首先建立动态危险天气模型,在选定的改航区域内,考虑改航航线整体的危险系数,改航过程中的转弯角度,以及改航航线的长度,寻求最佳的改航点。针对超单体雷暴的持续时间长,覆盖面积大的特点,建立动态多边形模型,并且考虑到改航的可行性和便捷性,以最短航段距离和最大转弯角度为限制条件,从设置的改航点中,寻找最佳改航路径。3.不规则多单体雷暴分为弓形雷暴和散点状雷暴。针对弓形雷暴,首先在飞行限制区顶点处设置限制圆,通过航空器与圆动态相切,规划出不同情况下的改航路径。针对散点状雷暴天气,首先建立航空器与危险天气的接近风险模型,以此为基础,通过求解航空器与危险天气的接近风险和距离变化情况,确定改航航向和飞行时间,建立基于安全性的改航模型。4.针对雷暴天气在交叉航线附近出现,以单架航空器改航模型为基础,生成初始改航航线,再考虑可能发生的飞行冲突,对改航航线进行修正,从而确定新的改航路线。
[Abstract]:Thunderstorms can threaten flight safety and affect flight punctuality. Aircraft may be arranged to circumvent the flight limit area. In this paper, the establishment of flight limit zone under thunderstorm weather is studied, and then the rerouting model of different thunderstorm weather is established. Finally, the rerouting model is established for the route intersection affected by thunderstorm weather. Based on Markov chain, a model of flight restricted zone allocation is proposed. By processing the thunderstorm graph directly, the boundary of thunderstorm is analyzed. Based on Markov state transition matrix, the motion and variation of thunderstorm are simulated, and the dynamic flight limit zone is solved. Massive thunderstorms are divided into monolithic thunderstorms and supermonomeric thunderstorms. In view of the problem of rerouting under single thunderstorm, the dynamic dangerous weather model is first established. In the selected rerouting area, the risk coefficient of the whole route, the turning angle during the course of the rerouting, and the length of the rerouting course are considered. Look for the best change point. In view of the long duration and large coverage of supercell thunderstorms, a dynamic polygonal model is established. Considering the feasibility and convenience of rerouting, the shortest segment distance and the maximum turning angle are taken as the limiting conditions. From the set of change point, find the best route. 3. Irregular multi-cell thunderstorms are divided into bow thunderstorms and scattered point thunderstorms. In view of the bow thunderstorm, the restricted circle is first set at the top of the restricted zone, and the changing route of the aircraft under different conditions is planned by means of the dynamic tangent of the aircraft and the circle. In the light of scattered point thunderstorm, the approach risk model between aircraft and dangerous weather is established at first. Based on this model, the change course and flight time are determined by solving the close risk and distance change between aircraft and dangerous weather. Build a safety-based model. 4. In view of the thunderstorm appearing near the cross route, based on the single aircraft reroute model, the initial route change is generated, and then the possible flight conflict is considered to modify the route to determine the new route.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V355;V321.228

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