黄河上游水资源状况模拟与未来演变

发布时间：2018-10-20 19:17

【摘要】：人类社会进程的快速发展给人类生活带来了严重的生态环境危机,资源、环境和人口问题成为自然、经济与社会协调发展的关键问题。地区的水资源状况越来越受到人们的关注,IPCC在2008年发布了"气候变化与水资源"的技术报告,进一步认知水资源的现状及问题。水资源在关系着粮食安全的同时也对经济运作和人类生活产生影响。其中黄河流域的水资源问题较为严重,水资源供给不平衡,存在水土流失的情况,断流现象也时常发生,而黄河上游的流量占整个流域的38%,因此黄河上游水文过程及要素的研究对黄河流域水资源的管理与保护至关重要。许多学者对黄河上游区域的水资源有较多的研究,多是基于统计分析方法,缺乏物理机制,同时对未来径流的变化采用情景假设的方案,具有较大的不确定性。SWAT水文模型不仅具有较强的物理机制,同时兼有分布计算的特点,能考虑到地理要素在空间分布的差异性,能够详细地模拟物质循环及水文循化过程。因此本文以DEM数据、土地利用、土壤数据和气候数据为基础,构建适用于黄河上游区域的SWAT模型,并对该研究区域的水文循环过程及水文要素进行模拟,还基于未来的气候数据(2041年-2060年)对黄河上游区域未来的径流和水文要素进行预测,并对现在及未来的水资源状况进行分析,也进一步分析了在径流变化过程中人类活动与气候变化的相对贡献。本文的主要结论如下:(1)在建立研究区域的属性数据库及对模型中的参数率定后,构建了适用于黄河上游区域的SWAT水文模型,能较好的对水文过程及要素进行模拟。(2)降水相比较于融雪是黄河上游水量的主要来源,在水量平衡过程中,蒸发是决定性因素,同时也不可忽视地下水对径流的作用。(3)未来黄河上游区域的降水呈增加趋势,温度变化不是很显著,气候的变化在各个子流域变化情况有差异。(4)研究区域未来的径流呈现增加趋势,月径流的峰值有所降低,基流值升高,表明未来的径流值呈现稳定的状态,洪涝灾害有所减缓。(5)未来的降水量、蒸发量和土壤含水量增多,地下水对径流补给增大,未来年内降水更加均匀。(6)现在及未来研究时段的水资源都表现为逐渐增多,湿润指数也逐渐增大,未来研究区域半湿润地区会逐渐向湿润地区转变。(7)径流变化受到人类活动的影响表现为先增大后减少,主要集中在1990-2004年,而气候变化对径流变化的作用一直持续到现在。蒸发量相较于降水量来说,对径流变化的影响更大。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of human society has brought serious ecological environmental crisis to human life. The problems of resources, environment and population have become the key problems of the coordinated development of economy and society. The situation of regional water resources has attracted more and more attention. In 2008, IPCC published a technical report on "Climate change and Water Resources" to further understand the current situation and problems of water resources. Water resources not only affect food security, but also affect economic operation and human life. Among them, the water resources problem in the Yellow River basin is relatively serious, the water resources supply is unbalanced, there are soil and water loss, and the phenomenon of flow breakage also occurs frequently. The discharge of the upper reaches of the Yellow River accounts for 38 percent of the whole basin, so the study of the hydrological process and elements in the upper reaches of the Yellow River is very important for the management and protection of the water resources in the Yellow River basin. Many scholars have more research on water resources in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, most of them are based on statistical analysis methods, lack of physical mechanism, and use scenario scenarios for future runoff changes. The SWAT hydrological model not only has strong physical mechanism, but also has the characteristics of distribution calculation, which can take into account the difference of geographical elements in spatial distribution, and can simulate the material cycle and hydrological process in detail. Therefore, based on DEM data, land use, soil data and climate data, this paper constructs a SWAT model suitable for the upper reaches of the Yellow River, and simulates the hydrological cycle process and hydrological elements in the study area. Based on future climate data (2041-2060), the future runoff and hydrological factors in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are also predicted, and present and future water resources are analyzed. The relative contribution of human activities to climate change in the process of runoff change is also analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) after establishing the attribute database of the study area and determining the parameter rate of the model, the SWAT hydrological model suitable for the upper reaches of the Yellow River is constructed. (2) compared with snowmelt, precipitation is the main source of water in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. Evaporation is the decisive factor in the process of water balance. At the same time, the effect of groundwater on runoff should not be ignored. (3) the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yellow River will increase in the future, and the temperature change is not obvious. The variation of climate is different in different subbasins. (4) the future runoff of the study area shows an increasing trend, the peak value of monthly runoff decreases, the value of base flow increases, which indicates that the future runoff value shows a stable state. (5) the future precipitation, evaporation and soil water content will increase, the groundwater supply to runoff will increase, and the precipitation will be more uniform in the coming year. (6) the water resources will increase gradually in the present and future research periods. The moisture index also increases gradually, and the sub-humid area will gradually change to the humid area in the future. (7) the runoff change is affected by human activities first and then decreases, mainly from 1990 to 2004. The effects of climate change on runoff have continued to this day. Evaporation has a greater effect on runoff than precipitation.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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