个体视角下的云制造生态系统发展及演化关键因素研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 09:23

本文关键词：个体视角下的云制造生态系统发展及演化关键因素研究　出处：《天津大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前中国制造业正面临“腹背受敌”的形式,推动制造企业转型升级,走向价值链高端是促进制造业持续、稳健发展的必由之路。在此背景下,云制造模式的提出有助于带动传统制造型企业向服务型转型,实现模式创新,因而得到学术界以及业内人士的广泛关注。当前对于云制造的研究大部分都集中于云服务模式、框架、技术实现及平台开发,缺乏从系统的角度研究云制造的发展及其影响因素。本文针对这一问题从个体视角借鉴生态学的理论研究了云制造生态系统的概念模型、信任形成机理及评估方法、能力评价及等级划分方法、云制造系统的演化发展等内容。主要工作如下:(1)面向云制造模式建立了生态系统的三层次概念模型。分析了云制造系统的生态特征,阐述了系统内主体间的相互关系,以此为基础提出了包含核心层、支撑层和应用层的云制造生态系统的概念模型,介绍了系统中的各种角色及其生存的环境,深入分析了云制造生态系统中的价值循环、信息循环与知识流动。(2)研究了云制造生态系统中的信任形成机理及评价方法。分别从需求方重视短期收益和服务方看重长期收益的角度分析了云制造环境下的信任博弈特点,建立了两种视角下的支付矩阵,讨论了几种博弈均衡存在的可能性,并以混合视角将两者统一,分析了达到博弈均衡的条件,研究发现交易双方保持信任(守信)的博弈均衡是存在的;针对云制造环境下交易的特点及信任风险问题,基于贝叶斯网模型提出了个体信任评价的方法;通过仿真分析了影响信任形成的主要因素。同时,本文通过模拟仿真技术,验证了所提出的个体信任评价方法的有效性。(3)研究了云制造生态系统中个体能力评价及等级划分方法。在分析能力特征的基础上,分别从内部和外部研究了云制造生态系统中影响个体能力的主要因素;本文引入冰山模型与胜任力模型,构建了面向个体的能力评估体系,讨论了基于ANP的能力评估方法;为了对个体进行有效划分,利用模糊聚类提出了一种能力等级划分方法,并分析了其有效性。(4)研究了云制造生态系统的演化机制与动态发展规律。分析了云制造系统的演化特征,基于网络演化博弈理论和现有研究建立了云制造系统的演化模型,定义了博弈规则、个体迁移规则、策略更新规则等内容;研究了云制造系统的演化动力学特性,讨论了个体迁移、信任机制、能力水平对系统合作水平的影响。研究发现,个体迁移能显著影响合作水平,随迁移半径增大,合作水平提升;信任期望、初始可信度能力期望以及初始能力是影响合作水平的重要因素,并对影响规律进行了量化分析。(5)面向汽车模具行业开展了实证研究。基于某汽车模具产业链云服务平台,分析了模具产业链生态系统框架,将本文所提出的信任评价与能力评价方法应用到该平台的管理规则中,通过平台的应用实施及成效分析,证明了本文所提出的生态模型及应用技术等研究成果的有效性。
[Abstract]:Chinese manufacturing industry is currently facing "form, promote have enemies in front and rear" manufacturing enterprises to upgrade to high-end value chain is the only way which must be passed to promote sustained and steady development of manufacturing industry. Under this background, the cloud manufacturing mode is helpful to promote the transformation from traditional manufacturing enterprises to service oriented mode, and achieve mode innovation. Therefore, it is widely concerned by academia and industry. Most of the current researches on cloud manufacturing focus on cloud service mode, framework, technology implementation and platform development. There is a lack of research on the development and influencing factors of cloud manufacturing from a systematic perspective. Based on the theory of ecology, this paper studies the concept model of cloud manufacturing ecosystem, the formation mechanism and assessment methods of trust, the ability evaluation and grading method, and the evolution and development of cloud manufacturing system. The main work is as follows: (1) the three level conceptual model of the ecosystem is established for the cloud manufacturing model. Analysis of the ecological characteristics of cloud manufacturing system, expounds the relationship among the subjects in the system, based on the concept model including the core layer, support layer and application layer of cloud manufacturing ecological system, introduces the system in a variety of roles and their environment, in-depth analysis of the value of circulation, the circulation of information and knowledge the flow in the ecosystem of cloud manufacturing. (2) the formation mechanism and evaluation method of trust in the cloud manufacturing ecosystem are studied. From the demand side to the short-term benefits and long-term benefits of the service value analysis of the trust game characteristics of cloud manufacturing environment, establish the payment matrix two perspective, discussed the possibility of the existence of several kinds of game equilibrium, and the mixed perspective to unify, analyzed reach game equilibrium conditions, the study found both parties to maintain trust (trust) the game equilibrium exists; and according to the characteristics of trust risk problems under the environment of cloud manufacturing trade, Bayesian network model based on the method of individual trust evaluation is proposed; the main factors influencing the formation of the trust through analysis of simulation. At the same time, this paper validates the effectiveness of the proposed individual trust evaluation method by simulation technology. (3) the evaluation and classification of individual capacity in the cloud manufacturing ecosystem were studied. Based on the analysis of the ability of characteristic, separately from the internal and external research on the main factors affecting the individual ability of cloud manufacturing ecosystem; this paper introduces iceberg model and competency model, construct the competence evaluation system for individuals, discusses the assessment method based on ANP's ability to effectively; partition of individual, using fuzzy clustering presents a capability classification method, and analyzes its effectiveness. (4) the evolution mechanism and dynamic development law of the cloud manufacturing ecosystem are studied. Analysis of the evolution of manufacturing systems, evolutionary game theory and the existing research established the evolution model of cloud manufacturing system based on the definition of the rules of the game, individual migration rules and strategy update rules; to study the evolution dynamics of cloud manufacturing system, the influence of individual migration, trust mechanism, ability level of system level the discussion of cooperation. The study found that individual migration can significantly affect the level of cooperation, and the level of cooperation increases with the increase of radius of migration. Trust expectation, initial credibility, ability expectation and initial ability are the important factors that influence the cooperation level, and the quantitative analysis of the influence rules is made. (5) an empirical study is carried out for the automobile die industry. An automobile die industry chain of cloud service platform based on the analysis of mold industry chain ecosystem framework, application and evaluation of trust evaluation method proposed in this paper to the management rules of the platform, through the analysis of application and effectiveness of the platform, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and application of ecological technology research the.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F424;F49

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