项目治理风险的网络动力分析

发布时间：2017-12-27 09:53

本文关键词：项目治理风险的网络动力分析　出处：《山东大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：项目治理是为项目管理提供目标、资源和制度环境的过程,用以保证利益相关方产生稳定的、符合要求的行为,项目治理风险表现为利益相关方不确定行为的可能性、影响程度和可管理程度。利益相关方及其关系形成组织维度的项目治理网络,该网络对利益相关方行为产生影响,项目治理网络可用以分析利益相关方不确定行为的可能性和可管理程度;同时,利益相关方行为作用于任务维度的风险因素,风险因素水平可来表征利益相关方不确定行为的影响程度。因此,在对项目治理风险进行分析和管控时,需综合考虑项目组织维度和任务维度。然而,当前项目治理风险分析方法局限于组织或者任务中的某个维度。其中,组织维度的治理风险分析方法以社会网络分析(SNA,Social Network Analysis)为代表,SNA通过概念化的网络结构模型来刻画主体间关系,可对治理网络进行静态量化评价,并根据量化结果提出风险管控策略。但是组织维度的治理网络由于受到任务维度风险因素的影响而随着项目推进动态变化,SNA静态的网络量化评价方式不符合项目治理网络的动态性;同时,SNA无法分析任务维度风险因素水平的变化,故不能评价利益相关方不确定行为的影响程度。任务维度的治理风险分析方法以系统动力学(SD,System Dynamics)方法为代表,SD方法具有探究系统要素因果关系和演化过程的功能,可分析风险因素在项目生命周期内的动态变化,并基于风险因素的灵敏度分析结果提出风险管控策略。但是SD方法不能有效刻画项目治理网络,无法将风险管控角色与相应的利益相关方对应,导致管控策略的实施缺乏有效的组织基础,SD无法有效分析利益相关方不确定行为的可管理程度。可见,现有的项目治理风险分析方法主要侧重组织或任务中的某个维度,无法对利益相关方不确定行为的可能性、影响程度和可管理程度进行整体分析,因此需要一种能够打通组织维度和任务维度的治理风险分析方法。本文将SNA和SD结合而提出网络动力分析(NDA,Network Dynamic Analysis)方法。NDA综合考虑了项目治理网络和风险因素,打通了项目的组织和任务两个维度,提高了治理风险分析的准确性和管控的有效性。NDA方法的实现需要解决概念、原理、工具和应用过程等基本问题,因此本文对相关概念进行梳理、拓展和细化以奠定NDA的概念基础,探究治理网络的要素、构建方法和动力过程机理以阐明NDA的基本原理,设计相应的算法并编写程序以为NDA提供数理分析工具,设计NDA的治理风险辅助决策流程并将其应用到协同创新项目中以展示NDA的应用过程。具体研究内容如下:(1)基本概念辨析本文在梳理现有研究和分析NDA特点的基础上,对项目治理和项目治理风险的概念进行辨析。在项目治理概念辨析中,为适应NDA分析的网络性和动态性特点,本文结合动态和网络两个角度细化项目治理含义:在项目立项阶段确定整体的项目目标和实现方式,构造和调整初始治理网络,设置项目过程中阶段治理网络调整规则;在项目过程中不断明确和调整具体的项目目标和实现方式。在项目治理风险概念辨析中,本文从更能体现管理学价值和项目特点的"人"的角度,选择"利益相关方不确定行为的可能性、影响程度和可管理程度"作为治理风险的概念,并根据项目的独特性和临时性特点将利益相关方行为界定为"围绕项目风险因素管控而开展的系列活动"。(2)项目治理网络要素分析和构建该部分包括网络要素分析、网络构建方法两部分内容,其中网络要素分析是提出网络构建方法的前提。本文在网络要素分析部分探讨了网络关系分类和网络节点界定两个问题。由于项目治理网络影响利益相关方行为,因此本文基于利益相关方行为影响因素对网络关系进行分类:首先通过文献分析方法整理归纳现有研究中关系的维度,然后探究利益相关方行为的影响因素,进而通过关联影响因素和不同维度关系的方式对网络关系进行分类,最终将网络关系分为沟通关系和控制关系。同时,本文根据关系分类结果将项目治理网络分为沟通网络和控制网络。治理网络中存在不同"粒度"的节点,例如企业、部门、团队、个人,界定网络节点的"粒度"是将现实中的利益相关方转化为治理网络节点的前提。本文基于SNA中"节点具有刺激反应一致性"的假设,结合关系分类结果提出节点界定规则:以利益相关方内部信息传递有效、内部目标统一作为网络节点界定标准,将未达到标准的利益相关方拆分,重复拆分过程直到新利益相关方满足上述标准。项目治理网络节点和关系均与风险因素相关,项目治理网络的形成具有风险因素依赖性,本文据此设计了治理网络构建方法。构建方法的步骤包括:通过构建风险分解结构、界定利益相关方风险管控角色来识别网络节点,通过分析节点之间的沟通关系、控制关系以识别网络关系,通过设计基于最优最劣方法(BWM)的关系强度判定过程而对网络关系进行量化。(3)项目治理网络动力过程机理该部分通过分析项目治理网络、利益相关方行为、风险因素间的影响关系来探究项目治理网络动力过程机理。利益相关方行为对风险因素的影响。现有研究将项目治理角色分为规划、操作、维护、监督四类,本文据此划分利益相关方行为类型并探究了不同行为之间、行为与风险因素之间的关系。其中,本文采用利益相关方行为与治理主体行为的一致性作为利益相关方行为评价指标,采用分布函数的均值和标准差作为风险因素分析指标,并建立了两类指标间的数理关系。风险因素对治理网络的影响。风险因素水平过高将引起利益相关方对治理网络的调整,根据调整的时机可将网络调整分为初始项目治理网络调整和阶段项目治理网络调整两个类型。本文分析了治理主体调整初始治理网络和设定阶段治理网络调整规则的过程,并探究了利益相关方在项目过程中基于风险因素水平和网络调整规则而对阶段项目治理网络进行调整的过程。治理网络对利益相关方行为的影响。本文通过网络密度、节点网络距离、平均网络距离等指标量化沟通网络和控制网络,并建立了上述指标与利益相关方行为评价指标间的数理关系。(4)项目治理网络动力过程模拟算法该部分通过算法的设计、实现和测试等过程为NDA提供数理分析工具。首先,基于拓展后的治理概念、治理网络要素分析结果和网络动力过程机理明确算法的基本假设,以此作为算法结构设计、关键变量取值分析、算法测试等内容的依据。其次,按照网络动力过程机理设计算法结构,分析算法结构中不同模块的功能和模块间数据传递关系,并据此设计具体的算法流程。然后,根据算法流程在Matlab平台上编写相应的程序,程序编写过程中关注了程序查错、程序运行速度提升、输入输出模块化等问题的解决;同时,根据算法假设分析结构变量的取值,并通过示例展示了算法程序的运行过程。最后,参考SD模型检验方法对算法进行测试,包括算法行为测试、极端情况测试和敏感性测试。(5)案例应用本文选择治理风险较高的工业技术研究院协同创新项目作为案例,首先设计了 NDA辅助项目治理风险管控决策的流程,然后按照流程对案例进行分析。案例应用具体过程如下:首先基于治理网络构建方法得到沟通网络和控制网络,并获得其他变量的取值;然后围绕项目治理网络的调整设计风险管控策略,并通过仿真模拟过程分析策略的效果和成本;进而根据治理主体的风险阈值和管控成本要求确定"满意"的策略;最后总结了 NDA案例应用过程中存在的问题并提出了相应的改进措施。本文创新点主要有:(1)提出了用于项目治理风险分析和管控的NDA方法。项目治理风险的分析和管控需要打通组织和任务两个维度,但是以SNA为代表的组织维度方法和以SD为代表的任务维度方法往往局限于单一维度,从而影响了治理风险分析的准确性和管控的有效性。本文结合SNA网络分析能力和SD风险因素动态分析能力而提出了 NDA方法,为项目治理风险研究提供了新的、更加有效的数理分析方法。(2)结合"网络"和"动态"两个角度拓展和细化项目治理概念。NDA方法具有"网络"性和"动态"性,虽然现有研究分别从"网络"和"动态"两个角度界定了项目治理概念,但是未将两个角度有效结合。因此,本文结合上述两个角度对现有的项目治理概念进行拓展和细化,为NDA的实现提供概念基础并丰富了项目治理理论。(3)针对项目治理网络的特殊性设计了网络构建方法。项目治理网络具有节点多层次性、风险因素依赖性等特点,"滚雪球"法等现有的网络构建方法与上述特点不符,从而影响了网络构建的准确性和效率。因此,本文针对项目治理网络的特殊性设计了网络构建方法。本文提出的NDA方法在理论上为项目治理风险研究提供了新的思路和数理分析工具,可为实践中的治理风险管控决策提供辅助支持。治理概念的拓展、治理网络关系的分类等内容丰富了项目治理理论,网络节点界定规则、治理网络构建方法提高了 SNA的适用性。本文研究不足主要有:通过文献分析和演绎推理的形式对网络关系进行分类,尚未基于实证研究来验证分类结果;网络调整形式中主要分析了网络关系强度变化等主要形式,而未考虑关系方向改变和节点变动等形式。
[Abstract]:Project governance is a process to provide objectives, resources and system environment for project management, so as to ensure stakeholders to produce stable and consistent behavior. Project governance risk is manifested as the possibility, degree of influence and manageability of stakeholders' uncertain behavior. Stakeholders and the relationship between the formation of the dimension of organization project management network, the influence of the network of stakeholders, project management network can be used to analyze the stakeholder uncertain behavior possibility and management level; at the same time, the stakeholders act on the risk factors of task dimension, risk factors to characterize the interest level related party does not determine the degree of influence behavior. Therefore, in the analysis and control of the risk of project governance, the dimension of the project organization and the task dimension should be considered. However, the current approach to the risk analysis of project governance is limited to a certain dimension in the organization or task. Among them, the dimension of organization governance risk analysis method in social network analysis (SNA Social, Network Analysis) as the representative of network structure model of SNA by conceptualization to describe the relationship between the subject, through static quantitative evaluation of network governance, and puts forward the risk control strategy according to the quantitative results. But the network governance dimensions due to the impact of risk factors and the task dimension with the project to promote the dynamic change of network evaluation mode SNA static does not comply with the dynamic project management network; at the same time, SNA is not the variation of the task dimension of risk factors, so it can not evaluate the stakeholders do not determine the degree of influence behavior. The task dimension governance risk analysis methods based on system dynamics (SD System Dynamics) method as the representative, the SD method has the inquiry system causal factors and the evolution process of the function, can dynamic change analysis of risk factors in the project life cycle, and based on the sensitivity analysis of the risk factors put forward risk control strategies. However, the SD method can not effectively describe project governance network, which can not correspond to the risk management role and the corresponding stakeholders, resulting in the lack of effective organizational foundation for the implementation of control strategy. SD can not effectively analyze the manageability of stakeholders' uncertain behavior. Therefore, the existing project management risk analysis method mainly focuses on some dimensions of organizational or task, the influence degree of possibility, to stakeholders of uncertain behavior and management level of the overall analysis, there is a need for the ability to open up the organizational dimension and the task dimension of governance risk analysis method. In this paper, SNA and SD are combined to propose the NDA (Network Dynamic Analysis) method. NDA comprehensively considered the project governance network and risk factors, and cleared the two dimensions of the organization and task of the project, which improved the accuracy of the risk analysis and the effectiveness of the control. NDA method to realize the need to solve the basic problems of concept, principle, tools and application process, so this paper on the related concept of carding, development and refinement in order to lay the foundation of NDA concept, the principle of network governance elements, construction method and dynamic mechanism to clarify the NDA base, design the corresponding algorithm and programming thought NDA provides a mathematical analysis tool, governance risk decision-making process design of NDA and its application to the collaborative innovation project to demonstrate the application process of NDA. The specific research contents are as follows: (1) the basic concepts are analyzed. Based on the existing research and analysis of the characteristics of NDA, this paper analyzes the concept of project governance and project governance risk. In the project management concepts, to adapt to the NDA network analysis and dynamic characteristics, combining with the two aspects of detailed project dynamic and network governance meaning: determine the overall project objectives and implementation of the project in the construction stage, and adjust the initial design phase of the process of network governance, project governance rules in network adjustment; in the process of constantly clear and adjust the specific project objectives and implementation. In the analysis of the concept of risk in project management, the management can better reflect the value and characteristics of the project of "people" point of view, select the possibility and stakeholders of uncertain behavior influence degree and management level "as a concept of governance risk, and stakeholder behavior is defined as" a series of activities around the project management and control the risk factors and carry out according to the special and temporary project". (2) project governance network elements analysis and construction. This part includes two parts: network elements analysis and network construction method. Network element analysis is the premise of network construction method. In this paper, two problems of network relationship classification and network node definition are discussed in the part of network element analysis. Because the project stakeholders influence the governance of network behavior, so the factors based on the stakeholder behavior classification of network relations: firstly summarize the relationship existing in the dimension through the literature analysis method, then explore the effects of stakeholder behavior factors, and then through the correlation factors and the relationship between the different dimensions of classification of network, network relationship will eventually divided into communication and control relation. At the same time, this paper divides the project management network into a communication network and a control network according to the result of the relationship classification. There are different "granularity" nodes in the network, such as enterprises, departments, teams and individuals. Defining the granularity of the network nodes is the premise to transform the real stakeholders into governance nodes. In this paper, SNA "has a node based on stimulus response consistency" hypothesis, combined with the classification results of new node definition rules: to stakeholders internal information effectively and internal unity of purpose as a network node is defined in the standard, stakeholders will not reach the standard split, split the process repeated until the new interest
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F424.3

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