基于低碳经济的我国节能减排路径设计与绩效评价研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 20:36

  本文关键词：基于低碳经济的我国节能减排路径设计与绩效评价研究　出处：《哈尔滨工程大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 低碳经济 节能减排 实现路径 绩效评价 能源消耗 碳排放

【摘要】：发展低碳经济实现节能减排已成为世界各国应对全球气候变暖、环境日益恶化问题的重要途径。我国经济在快速发展的同时,也付出了巨大的环境代价。如何发展低碳经济,实现节能减排,为人民创造更加良好的生活环境,已成为全社会共同关注的问题。本论文试图对基于低碳经济的节能减排实现路径进行分析,并对其节能减排绩效进行实证研究。从低碳经济的角度探讨我国节能减排的耦合机制与发展潜力,分析影响节能减排的驱动因素及各影响因素之间的作用关系;揭示不同层面上的节能减排实现路径,最后围绕绩效评价开展实证研究并提出对策建议。论文主要包括以下七个部分:第一,基于低碳经济的我国节能减排现状与趋势研究。在分析低碳经济内涵、特点以及与绿色经济、循环经济和生态经济区别和联系的基础上,分析我国节能减排的现状及存在问题,总结我国实施节能减排战略以来取得的总体成效以及面临的难点。在进一步剖析低碳经济与节能减排关系的基础上,提出低碳经济下的我国实施节能减排进行的步骤和路线图。第二,进行节能减排的低碳效应与耦合机制研究。分析实施节能减排战略具有的低碳效应,具体包括理念效应、战略效应、技术效应、规模效应;同时实施节能减排具有的低碳机制,具体包括动力与传导机制、激励与约束机制。第三,基于低碳经济的我国节能减排潜力分析。分别对从能源消耗与经济发展关系分析入手,探寻低碳经济下的节能减排潜力,证实中国的经济增长、能源消耗、资本(存量)和劳动力存在长期的均衡关系,在调整能源结构和减少污染排放方面具有巨大的潜力。随后对能源结构和碳排放两个节能减排的关键指标进行分析,首先通过建立能源结构合理度3E模型,实证结果表明对我国能源结构合理度呈“U”状。其次,利用改进的IP AT环境模型,对2009-2020年我国的人口、人均GDP、二氧化碳排放总量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放等指标进行了预测。第四,基于低碳经济的我国节能减排影响因素与作用路径分析。首先运用理论研究与实证研究相结合的方法,梳理和总结基于低碳经济的节能减排影响因素。然后,应用解释结构模型理论(ISM),通过构建基于低碳经济的节能减排影响因素层级结构模型,通过该模型系统地阐明中国基于低碳经济节能减排的影响因素,并着重理顺各因素间层次结构关系及其作用路径。第五,基于低碳经济的我国节能减排路径研究。首先进行节能减排路径的理论设计,构建节能减排路径的理论模型与理论假设,然后运用结构方程模型对理论路径进行实证检验,通过验证对理论模型进行修正,在此基础上验证了实现节能减排的三条路径,即产业结构调整路径、能源结构优化路径与技术创新路径。最后从经济发展情景、社会环境、居民行为、企业行为、政策制度、技术环境等方面对具体的三条路径的实现途径进行定量与定性分析,并提出不同环境下三条路径的实现方式及实现措施。第六,基于低碳经济我国节能减排绩效评价研究。在构建基于低碳经济的节能减排绩效评价体系的基础上,首先运用基于参数的随机前沿分析(SFA)方法测试2001-2014年环境约束下的中国区域全要素能源效率,同时引入能源污染综合指数(EPI),用于衡量我国各省经济发展过程中对环境的影响;然后选择中国低碳建设首批低碳试点省份,利用脱钩方法分析碳排放绩效分析;最后,根据我国30个省的实证数据,通过熵值法对各指标进行权重的确定,运用模糊综合评价法对我国节能减排绩效的实际情况进行综合评价。第七,基于低碳经济的我国节能减排对策研究。分别从调整产业结构、加强技术创新、完善碳税及碳市场化模式、构建低碳消费模式等方面,提出实现低碳经济下的节能减排目标的相应对策。研究成果为低碳经济节能减排的实现路径及绩效评价的相关研究提供了新的思路和参考依据,将有效促进基于低碳经济的我国节能减排工作的进一步实施。
[Abstract]:Developing low carbon economy to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction has become an important way for all countries to deal with global warming and environmental degradation. While China's economy is developing rapidly, it has also paid a huge environmental price. How to develop low carbon economy, realize energy saving and emission reduction and create a better living environment for the people has become a common concern of the whole society. This paper tries to analyze the path of energy saving and emission reduction based on low carbon economy, and make an empirical study on the performance of energy saving and emission reduction. Study on the coupling mechanism and the development potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in China from the perspective of a low carbon economy, the relationships between factors affecting the driving factors of energy saving and emission reduction and the effect of energy saving and emission reduction; to reveal the different levels of the realization of the path, around the final performance evaluation to carry out empirical research and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. The paper mainly includes the following seven parts: first, the current situation and trend of energy saving and emission reduction in China based on low carbon economy. In the analysis of low carbon economy connotation, characteristics and green economy, circular economy and ecological economy difference and relation on the basis of the analysis of the present situation of energy conservation and emission reduction in China and the existing problems, summarize the achievements since the implementation of energy-saving emission reduction strategy in China and facing difficulties. On the basis of further analysis of the relationship between low carbon economy and energy saving and emission reduction, the steps and roadmap of implementing energy saving and emission reduction in China under low carbon economy are put forward. Second, the low carbon effect and coupling mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction are studied. Analysis of the implementation of energy saving and emission reduction strategy has low carbon effect, including the concept effect, strategic effect, technology effect and scale effect, and at the same time, implement the low carbon mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction, including power and transmission mechanism, incentive and restraint mechanism. Third, analysis of energy conservation and emission reduction potential in China based on low carbon economy. Analysis of the relationship of economic development and energy consumption from the start, to explore the potential of energy saving and emission reduction in the low carbon economy, confirmed China economic growth, energy consumption, labor and capital (stock) there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, in the adjustment of energy structure and reduce pollution emissions. There is huge potential. Then we analyze the two key indicators of energy saving and emission reduction of energy structure and carbon emissions. First, by establishing the 3E model of the rational degree of energy structure, the empirical results show that the rationality of China's energy structure is "U". Secondly, we use the improved IP AT environment model to predict the population, per capita GDP, total carbon dioxide emissions and unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions in China in the past 2009-2020 years. Fourth, based on the low carbon economy, China's energy conservation and emission reduction factors and the role of the path analysis. First, we use the method of combining theoretical research and empirical research to comb and summarize the factors of energy saving and emission reduction based on low carbon economy. Then, the application of interpretive structural model theory (ISM), through the construction of energy-saving emission reduction effect of low carbon economy factor hierarchical structure model based on the model system to clarify Chinese influencing factors of energy saving and emission reduction based on low carbon economy, and emphatically straighten out the hierarchical relationship between the factors and effects of path. Fifth, based on low carbon economy, China's energy conservation and emission reduction path research. The first theoretical design of energy saving and emission reduction path, theoretical model and hypothesis building energy saving path, and then use the structural equation model for empirical test of the theoretical path, by means of the theoretical model is verified on the basis of this amendment, verify the implementation of the three paths of energy saving and emission reduction, the adjustment of industrial structure, energy structure optimization of path and path the path of technology innovation. Finally, from the economic development scenario, social environment, residents' behavior, enterprise behavior, policy system and technology environment, we carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis of the three ways to achieve the specific path, and put forward three ways to achieve different environment and implementation measures. Sixth, based on low carbon economy, the performance evaluation of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Based on the low carbon economy energy saving and emission reduction performance evaluation system, using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) method based on the parameters of the test Chinese regional total factor energy efficiency in 2001-2014 environment, and the energy pollution index (EPI), is used to measure the impact on the environment of China's provinces economic development process in Chinese; then choose the low carbon building low carbon pilot provinces, analysis of carbon emission performance by using decoupling method; finally, according to the empirical data of 30 provinces of our country, for each index weight by entropy method to determine the weight, comprehensive evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to the actual situation of the performance of energy saving and emission reduction in china. Seventh, based on low carbon economy in China's energy conservation and emission reduction countermeasures. From the aspects of adjusting industrial structure, strengthening technological innovation, improving carbon tax and carbon marketing mode, and building low carbon consumption mode, we put forward corresponding countermeasures to achieve energy saving and emission reduction targets under low carbon economy. The research results provide a new idea and reference for the related research of energy saving and emission reduction in low carbon economy and performance evaluation, which will effectively promote the further implementation of energy saving and emission reduction in China based on low carbon economy.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X821;F124.5
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本文编号：1347340