我国碳排放因素分析及对应碳经济政策的DSGE模拟

发布时间：2018-01-21 03:40

本文关键词： 碳排放能源消费因素进出口贸易因素 DSGE政策模拟　出处：《北京科技大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现阶段,人类活动导致二氧化碳排放增加,影响社会经济发展已是国际社会共识。作为世界最大二氧化碳排放国,同时也是最大的能源消耗国,我国在平衡社会经济发展与碳排放的事业上任重而道远。政府亟需了解影响我国碳排放的主要因素并对症下药,制定合理、科学的碳经济政策。本文在我国近20年的生产数据和投入产出数据基础上,以碳排放影响因素和碳经济政策为研究对象,构建了在技术冲击下碳经济政策对碳排放影响的动态随机一般均衡模型,并运用该模型模拟了未征收碳税和征收碳税情况下对经济发展的影响。本文的主要研究内容和创新点如下：(1)通过LMDI分析了我国工业能源消费因素对碳排放的影响,结果表明我国碳排放迅速增加的主要原因是经济增长周期的波动和工业生产总值的增加。而根本原因是能源结构总体上没有得到改善,各种清洁能源的使用率较低,主要能源消耗依然以煤炭为主。利用投入产出法对我国居民近30年来生活用能碳排放的测算,定量描述了我国生活用能的基本状况。目前来看,我国居民生活用能碳排放总体处于较低水平,居民生活用能的能源结构有待于进一步改善。从居民消费品载能碳排放的角度来看,此部分的碳排放规模逐年上升,但占排放总量的比重逐年下降,并且排放增速远低于消费价值量增速。本文从间接碳排放的角度研究居民消费品的载能碳排放,比起直接的碳排放研究,更为全面地描述了居民生活用能对碳排放的影响。(2)通过投入产出法利用中国投入产出表和海关最新数据,分析了中国进出口贸易中隐含碳排放问题。结果表明中国是隐含碳排放的进出口大国,随着对外贸易逐渐活跃中国二氧化碳排放量也逐年上升。平均30%左右的总进口排放是为了再出口需求,实际用于国内自身消费需求的进口排放平均为各年总排放的75%左右,从绝对进口排放量看,实际进口排放和进口再出口排放均在不断增加。在经济全球化加速推进的背景下,随着中国在国际分工中的地位的改变,中国因生产排放的碳量远大于因消费排放的碳量,而且2002年中国加入WTO之后,中国出口碳排放的增速尤其迅猛。(3)本章主要通过DSGE模型进行政策模拟,分别对未征收碳税的经济环境和征收碳税的经济环境进行了碳经济政策的模拟,把劳动力市场这一因素加入到理论模型中。经过模拟发现未征收碳税的经济环境下,在面对技术冲击,碳排放尽管增长率是下降的,但增长率一直处于正的方向；征收碳税的经济环境下,其碳排放增长率均小于没有加入碳税的碳排放增长率,即征收碳税有利于降低碳排放增长速度,最后存在一个碳排放的稳态,即碳排放存在动态收敛的趋势。最优碳税值为75.5元／吨,政府实施该碳税可使得政府的减排经济成本最小。
[Abstract]:At present, human activities lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions, which affect the social and economic development of the international community consensus. As the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, but also the largest energy consumer. China has a long way to go in balancing social and economic development and carbon emissions. The government urgently needs to understand the main factors that affect carbon emissions in China and formulate reasonable solutions. Based on the production data and input-output data of nearly 20 years in China, this paper focuses on the factors affecting carbon emissions and the carbon economy policy. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of carbon economic policy on carbon emissions under the impact of technology is constructed. The model is used to simulate the impact on economic development without and without carbon tax. The main contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: 1). The effects of industrial energy consumption factors on carbon emissions were analyzed by LMDI. The results show that the main reasons for the rapid increase of carbon emissions in China are the fluctuation of economic growth cycle and the increase of industrial GDP, while the fundamental reason is that the overall energy structure has not been improved. The utilization rate of all kinds of clean energy is low, and the main energy consumption is still coal. The carbon emission from domestic energy consumption has been measured by input-output method in the past 30 years. Quantitative description of the basic situation of energy use in China. At present, the living energy carbon emissions of Chinese residents are generally in a low level. The energy structure of household energy needs to be further improved. From the perspective of household consumer energy carbon emissions, this part of the scale of carbon emissions increased year by year, but the proportion of total emissions decreased year by year. And the growth rate of emissions is far lower than the growth rate of consumption value. This paper studies the energy carbon emissions of consumer goods from the perspective of indirect carbon emissions, compared with the direct carbon emissions research. A more comprehensive description of the impact of household energy use on carbon emissions. 2) through the input-output method to use China's input-output table and the latest customs data. This paper analyzes the problem of implied carbon emissions in China's import and export trade, and the results show that China is a big import and export country with implied carbon emissions. China's carbon dioxide emissions have been rising year by year as foreign trade has become more active. The average total import emission of about 30% is for re-export demand. The actual import emissions used for domestic consumption demand averaged about 75% of the total emissions per year, from the perspective of absolute import emissions. Under the background of accelerating economic globalization, China's position in the international division of labor has changed. China's carbon emissions from production are much larger than those from consumption, and after China joined the WTO in 2002. China's export carbon emissions growth is particularly rapid. 3) this chapter mainly through the DSGE model for policy simulation. The economic environment without carbon tax and the economic environment with carbon tax are simulated respectively. The labor market factor is added to the theoretical model. After simulation, it is found that in the economic environment without carbon tax, in the face of technological shock, carbon emissions although the growth rate is declining. But the growth rate has been in a positive direction; In the economic environment of carbon tax, the growth rate of carbon emissions is smaller than that without carbon tax, that is, carbon tax is conducive to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions, and finally there is a steady state of carbon emissions. The optimal value of carbon tax is 75.5 yuan / ton, and the economic cost of emission reduction can be minimized by the implementation of the carbon tax by the government.
【学位授予单位】：北京科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321;F124.5

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