中国国际收支失衡的原因及平衡对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 11:53

  本文选题：国际收支　切入点：失衡原因　出处：《云南大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代中期以来,中国的国际收支失衡表现为：长期持续的经常账户、资本和金融账户“双顺差”,储备资产大规模增加。长期持续的经常账户顺差主要是由货物贸易顺差引起的。长期持续的资本和金融账户顺差主要是由直接投资顺差造成的。“双顺差”的积累使得中国外汇储备余额节节攀升。中国国际收支失衡就象一把双刃剑,长期持续的国际收支“双顺差”对中国经济既有正面影响也有负面影响。长期持续的货物贸易顺差以及外商直接投资流入对促进中国经济增长和增加就业发挥了重要作用。中国外汇储备大量增加,使得中国在进口支付、外债清偿、外汇市场干预等方面拥有强大的实力,有利于人民币国际地位的提升。在成为货物贸易大国的同时,中国逐步成为世界制造业大国,并在核电、高铁、新能源和清洁能源等领域已经具有世界领先水平。然而,随着货物贸易的快速发展,中国外贸依存度不断上升,外资大量流入,经常账户中的投资收益逆差不断扩大,中国对国际市场和对外资的依赖性也不断加大。中国外汇储备规模过大,但外汇储备投资收益率低,加之外汇占款已成为中国基础货币投放的主要渠道,造成中央银行货币政策实施困难。伴随着中国国际贸易顺差的持续增长,针对中国的贸易摩擦高发频发,使中国连续多年位居全球贸易摩擦目标国榜首。因此,努力探寻中国国际收支失衡的原因并找到实现平衡的路径和对策就显得非常必要。改革开放初期中国选择了以加工贸易作为发展外贸的突破口,通过加工贸易使外资与中国丰富廉价的劳动力相结合,拉动中国经济增长,增加就业,使得中国货物贸易顺差逐步扩大。中国在利用外资上选择了外商直接投资为主,国家在政策上鼓励和支持,并给外资以“超国民待遇”,使外商投资企业成为加工贸易和外贸出口的主导,使中国经常项目顺差进一步扩大。内部失衡是中国国际收支失衡的根本原因,储蓄率居高不下,加之金融的低效率使储蓄不能有效转化为投资,以及国内消费率低更加剧了中国的“双顺差”。此外,人民币汇率、利率、GDP增长率、人口年龄结构以及相关的政府调控政策等都是影响中国国际收支的重要因素。中国国际收支实现平衡的基本路径和对策措施在于将中国经济增长方式转到主要依靠内需上来,并通过改革、转型、创新找到经济增长的持续动力,改善收入分配,提高金融效率,加快要素市场改革步伐,并对现有的经常项目管理政策、资本项目管理政策和外汇储备管理政策进行改进和完善。同时,通过“一带一路”战略的实施,促进中国国际收支的平衡。
[Abstract]:Since the middle of 1990s, China's balance-of-payments imbalances have manifested itself in a long-term, ongoing current account. "double surplus" in capital and financial accounts, and a large increase in reserve assets. The long-term persistent current account surplus is mainly caused by the surplus in trade in goods. The long-term persistent surplus in capital and financial accounts is mainly due to direct investment. The accumulation of "double surplus" has made the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves climb steadily. China's balance of payments imbalance is like a double-edged sword. The long-lasting balance of payments "double surplus" has both positive and negative effects on china's economy. The long-lasting surplus in goods trade and the inflow of foreign direct investment have played a role in promoting china's economic growth and increasing employment. China's foreign exchange reserves have increased substantially, It makes China have strong strength in import payment, foreign debt repayment, foreign exchange market intervention, and so on, which is conducive to the upgrading of the international status of RMB. While becoming a big trading country in goods, China has gradually become a major manufacturing country in the world. And has already taken the lead in the fields of nuclear power, high-speed rail, new energy and clean energy. However, with the rapid development of trade in goods, China's dependence on foreign trade has been rising, and foreign capital has been pouring in. The investment income deficit in the current account continues to grow, and China's dependence on international markets and foreign investment is also growing. China's foreign exchange reserves are too large, but the return on foreign exchange reserves is low. In addition, the foreign exchange account has become the main channel for China's basic currency investment, resulting in difficulties in the implementation of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. With the continuous growth of China's international trade surplus, trade frictions against China are frequently occurring. For many years in a row, China ranks first in the list of target countries for global trade frictions. It is very necessary to explore the cause of China's balance of payments imbalance and find out the path and countermeasures to achieve it. In the early stage of reform and opening up, China chose processing trade as a breakthrough for the development of foreign trade. Through processing trade, foreign investment is combined with China's abundant and cheap labor force, thus stimulating China's economic growth, increasing employment, and making China's trade surplus in goods gradually expand. China has chosen foreign direct investment as the main source of foreign investment. The state encourages and supports the policies of the state, and gives foreign capital "super national treatment" so that foreign-invested enterprises become the dominant players in processing trade and foreign trade exports. The internal imbalance is the fundamental cause of the imbalance in China's balance of payments. The high savings rate, coupled with the low efficiency of the financial system, prevents savings from being effectively converted into investment. And the low domestic consumption rate has exacerbated China's "double surplus". In addition, the RMB exchange rate, interest rate and GDP growth rate, The age structure of the population and related government regulation and control policies are all important factors affecting China's balance of payments. The basic path and countermeasures for China's balance of payments balance of payments are to shift the mode of China's economic growth to rely mainly on domestic demand. And through reform, transformation, innovation to find the sustained driving force of economic growth, improve income distribution, improve financial efficiency, accelerate the pace of factor market reform, and the existing current account management policies, The capital account management policy and the foreign exchange reserve management policy are improved and perfected. At the same time, through the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy, China's balance of payments will be promoted.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6
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本文编号：1556410