技术赶超中的模仿与创新

发布时间：2018-07-10 05:06

  本文选题：技术赶超 + 全要素生产率　； 参考：《云南大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：技术进步对于经济增长起着重要的影响作用。在经典的新古典、新增长、熊比特及新熊比特经济学理论中都强调了技术进步在经济增长的中的重要作用。新古典认为技术进步速度决定了稳态时经济增长的速度；新增长理论认为技术进步是经济长期增长的主要原因,技术进步能克服其它要素边际报酬递减,实现经济增长；熊比特及新熊比特认为创新作用于技术进步从而影响经济增长。从世界经济的发展事实来看,技术水平位于世界技术前沿及其附近的国家都有着较为稳定的经济增长速度和高的收入水平。欠发达国家与发达国家在技术水平上存在着较大的差距,欠发达国家要实现经济上对发达国家的赶超就必然要缩小与发达国家在技术上的差距。欠发达国家技术赶超是经济赶超的必要条件。本文重点研究的问题是欠发达国家技术赶超的问题。技术赶超的实现并不是一蹴而就的,学者们在研究技术进步问题时将技术赶超的过程分为几个阶段。这些阶段性理论认为：模仿与创新是欠发达国家技术赶超的路径会经历的两个主要阶段。在技术赶超的初始阶段,与世界技术前沿的差距较大,此时模仿是推动技术进步的主要方式；在技术赶超的中后期阶段,与世界技术前沿的差距较小,此进创新对技术进步的作用大于模仿。第1章绪论的部分我们阐述了本文所做研究的现实方面与理论方面意义。从现实意义上讲,技术赶超过程中模仿向创新转型是欠发达国家技术赶超的内在要求,因此,我们的研究能为我国现阶段的国家创新战略提供支持。从理论意义上讲,研究技术赶超过程中模仿向创新转型的问题可以丰富和充实技术赶超理论,为欠发达国家的技术赶超提供理论上的支持和方法上的建议。在绪论的最后一节我们对本文的研究方法和研究思路做出描述,论证了本项研究的可行性并提出了本项研究可能实现的创新之处以及具体的技术研究路线。第2章的内容主要是回顾与梳理了欠发达国家技术赶超的相关理论和文献成果。首先分析关于技术赶超可行性的理论,其次分析技术赶超的阶段性理论,最后分析了技术赶超过程中模仿主导向创新主导转型的相关理论。通过文献回顾和梳理笔者认为技术模仿与创新在赶超的不同阶段对技术进步的推动作用并不相同。技术赶超的路径并不是连续的,存在着阶段性特点。阶段间的过渡无法简单完成,特别是由模仿向创新的过渡存在较多困难。很多欠发达国家没有完成对世界技术前沿的赶超,最重要的原因就是没有完成由模仿向创新的技术转型。第3章通过拓展罗默的三部门增长模型对欠发达国家的技术赶超进行了理论分析。分析结果表明：欠发达国家在技术赶超的路径上存在模仿均衡点与创新均衡点。发达国家的技术水平会收敛于创新均衡点,在该均衡点处对应着较高的中间品价值与较高的技术水平；欠发达国家的技术水平会收敛于模仿均衡点,在该点处对应着较低的中间品价值与较低的技术水平。欠发达国家在技术赶超的路径上,只有成功越过模仿均衡点才能达到创新均衡点,从而实现赶超。欠发达国家只有从模仿均衡点跃升到创新均衡点才能实现技术赶超,这种跃升的过程就是由模仿向创新转型的过程。在技术赶超的不同阶段里,实现技术进步所需要的要素禀赋不相同。相同要素在技术赶超的不同阶段里对技术进步的影响作用也存在着差异；要素自身的丰富程度和发展水平如果发生变化,它对技术进步的作用也会相应发生变化。综合上述原因,我们认为技术赶超中模仿向创新转型这一过程的实现是困难的。本章还建立了一个厂商的微观决策模型。运用该模型来分析企业对于模仿和创新的选择机制,以此来论证由模仿向创新转型的微观理论机制。第4章采用跨国数据检验了国家间技术的收敛情况。检验时样本国家被分为欠发达国家与OECD国家两组。第一步对技术水平的绝对收敛进行检验。结果表明,OECD国家的技术水平绝对收敛,欠发达国家与总体样本国家均不绝对收敛。我们再对国家间技术水平进行条件收敛检验,按照条件收敛的检验方法,将那些对技术进步产生影响的要素引入条件收敛模型进行检验,检验结果显示：总体样本国家存在条件收敛。能够影响技术收敛的要素,必然会对技术赶超产生影响,也必然会对技术赶超过程中由模仿向创新的转型产生影响。所以,我们在这一章对这些要素展开了较为详细的分析,以便了解这些要素对技术进步的影响,以及在模仿主导和创新主导这两种类型的国家中这种影响表现出怎样的差异。第5章通过建立动态面板模型,实证分析了在第4章中影响收敛的因素对于技术赶超国家和技术发达国家的技术进步所产生的作用。实证分析过程中我们对样本国家进行分组估计研究,分析比较了这些影响因素在OECD国家和欠发达国家对技术进步所发挥的作用有何差异。这些差异说明了以模仿为主导的欠发达国家和以创新为主导的OECD国家在推动技术进步时对要素的需求存在差异。为了进一步分析这种差异性,本章通过面板门槛回归对要素影响技术水平的结构性特点进行了研究。研究结果显示：这些转型要素对技术进步产生影响时存在着相应的门槛效应。如果它们自身的发展程度和丰富程度产生变化,那么,它们对技术水平的影响将会出现显著的差异性。第6章主要对欠发达国家模仿向创新转型是否成功对欠发达国家技术赶超产生的影响。通过对比实现技术赶超的国家和没有实现技术赶超的国家。我们发现,成功实现技术赶超的国家也成功实现了由模仿向创新的转型,并且以创新为技术进步的主要推动形式。长期中没有完成技术进步的方式转型的国家,在技术赶超上是失败的。在对技术赶超成功的国家与技术赶超失败的国家进行对比研究之后,我们接着对技术转型失败与中等收入陷阱问题进行了论述。第7章对我们的研究成果进行了总结,同时也反思了我们的研究存在的不足,反思之后对下一步的研究做出了展望。本文的研究是从理论与实证两方面结合进行的,在理论分析时我们提出两个命题,然后通过实证研究得到了证实。
[Abstract]:Technological progress plays an important role in economic growth. In classic neoclassical, new growth, bear bit and new bear bit economics, the important role of technological progress in economic growth is emphasized. New classical thought that the speed of technological progress determines the speed of economic growth in the steady state; the new growth theory believes that technology advances. Step is the main reason for long-term economic growth. Technological progress can overcome the diminishing marginal returns of other elements and achieve economic growth. Bear bits and new bear bits believe that innovation plays a role in technological progress and thus affects economic growth. From the fact of the development of the world economy, the level of technology is located in the frontier of the world technology and in the neighboring countries. The relatively stable economic growth rate and the high income level. There is a big gap between the developed countries and the underdeveloped countries. In order to realize the overtake of the developed countries, the underdeveloped countries will inevitably narrow the technical gap with the developed countries. The technology catching up of the less developed countries is the necessary condition for the economic surpassing. This paper focuses on the problem of technological surpassing in less developed countries. The realization of technology catching up is not achieved overnight. Scholars divide the process of technology catching up into several stages in the study of technological progress. These stage theory holds that imitation and innovation are the two of the paths that the underdeveloped countries will go through. The main stage. In the initial stage of technological surpassing, the gap between the technology advancement and the world technology frontier is larger. At this time, imitation is the main way to promote the technological progress. In the middle and late stages of the technology catching up, the gap between the technology advancement and the world technology frontier is smaller. The role of this innovation is greater than the imitation. The part of the first chapter of the introduction described this article. In practical sense, in a realistic sense, the transformation of imitation to innovation in the process of technological catching up is the inherent requirement of the technology catching up in the less developed countries. Therefore, our research can provide support for the national innovation strategy at the present stage of our country. The problem of transformation can enrich and enrich the theory of technological catch up and provide theoretical support and method suggestions for the technology catching up in less developed countries. In the last section of the introduction, we describe the research methods and research ideas of this article, demonstrate the feasibility of this study and put forward the possible innovation of this study. The second chapter mainly reviews and combs the related theories and literature achievements of the technology catching up in the less developed countries. Firstly, it analyzes the theory about the feasibility of technology catching up, secondly analyzes the stage theory of technology catching up, and finally analyzes the leading transformation of imitation leading to innovation in the process of technological catching up. By reviewing and combing the literature, I think that technology imitating and innovation are not the same in the different stages of technological progress. The path of technology catching up is not continuous, and there is a stage characteristic. The transition between stages can not be completed simply, especially the transition from imitation to innovation is more difficult. The most important reason is that many underdeveloped countries have not completed the technological transformation from imitation to innovation. The third chapter analyses the technology surpassing of the less developed countries by expanding Romer's three sector growth model. The results show that the less developed countries are in the way of technological surpassing. There are imitative equilibrium points and innovation equilibrium points. The technological level of developed countries converges to the innovation equilibrium point, which corresponds to higher intermediate value and higher technical level at the equilibrium point; the technical level of the less developed countries converges to the imitative equilibrium point, and the lower intermediate value and lower technology should be at the point. Level. In the path of technology catching up, the less developed countries can reach the innovation equilibrium only by successfully crossing the equilibrium point of imitation, so that the less developed countries can catch up with the technology only from the imitative equilibrium point to the innovation equilibrium point, which is the process of transformation from imitation to innovation. In different stages, the factor endowments needed to achieve technological progress are different. The effects of the same elements on the technological progress are also different in the different stages of the technology catching up. If the richness and development level of the elements themselves change, it will change accordingly. We believe that it is difficult to realize the process of transformation from imitation to innovation. This chapter also establishes a manufacturer's micro decision model. The model is used to analyze the mechanism of enterprise's choice of imitation and innovation, in order to demonstrate the micro theoretical mechanism from imitation to innovation. The fourth chapter uses transnational data to test the country. The sample countries are divided into two groups in the less developed countries and the OECD countries. The first step is to test the absolute convergence of the technical level. The results show that the technical level of the OECD countries is absolutely convergent, and the less developed countries and the overall sample countries are not absolutely convergent. According to the test method of conditional convergence, the factors that affect the technological progress are introduced into the conditional convergence model, and the test results show that the overall sample country has a conditional convergence. The factors that can affect the technological convergence will inevitably have an impact on the technological catch up, and are bound to be imitated in the process of catching up with the technology. So we have a more detailed analysis of these elements in this chapter so as to understand the impact of these elements on technological progress, and how the difference in the impact of the two types of countries that are dominant and innovative. The fifth chapter is based on the establishment of a dynamic panel model. In the fourth chapter, we analyze the effect of the factors that affect the convergence of the technology in the technology surpassing countries and the technology progress of the developed countries. In the process of empirical analysis, we study the sample countries in group estimation, and compare the differences between these factors and the role of the OECD countries and the less developed countries on the technical progress. In order to further analyze this difference, this chapter studies the structural characteristics of the factors affecting the technical level by the panel threshold regression in order to further analyze this difference. The transformation factors have a corresponding threshold effect on the technological progress. If their own degree of development and enrichment changes, then they will have significant differences in the impact on the technical level. The sixth chapter is mainly about the success of the imitative transformation of the underdeveloped countries to the underdeveloped countries. We find that countries with successful technology catching up have also succeeded in realizing the transformation from imitation to innovation and the main driving force of technological progress. After a comparative study of the countries that have succeeded in catching up with the successful countries and countries that fail to catch up with technology, we then discuss the failure of technology transformation and the middle income trap. The seventh chapter summarizes the results of our research, and also rethinks the shortcomings of our research, and after rethinking. The research of the next step is prospected. The research of this paper is carried out from two aspects of theory and demonstration. In theoretical analysis, we put forward two propositions and then confirmed through empirical research.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F113.2
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本文编号：2112165