武汉市土地利用碳排放分析与系统动力学仿真

发布时间：2017-12-26 23:31

本文关键词：武汉市土地利用碳排放分析与系统动力学仿真　出处：《华中农业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球人口的快速增长、社会经济的飞速发展,人类在大量消费以碳基能源为主的资源发展经济的同时,以温室气体为主的环境污染问题日益凸显。气候变暖、冰川融化、海平面升高、自然环境恶化以及时常出现的极端天气等问题成为各界关注的焦点。而土地承载着人类生产以及生活的各类活动,城镇化的扩张、经济的发展、资源的消耗等都与土地利用有着紧密的联系,土地利用变化不仅仅直接改变了城市自然碳循环,而且还间接影响着人为碳排放过程。但是以前对于土地利用碳排放的研究往往是从碳排放释放和影响机理出发,测算自然源和人为源碳排放量,分析其变化的影响因素,由此提出可以降低碳排放的对策。而对于城市社会经济与土地利用碳排放的系统分析,各因子相互作用机理的研究,以及由此按照可持续发展要求,探讨可控变量对城市系统的作用还有待于深入。本文在综合土地利用碳排放的有关文献的基础上,对城市各类土地的自然源和人为源碳排放进行了测算与分析,计算了1996-2014年武汉市土地利用碳排放量、碳汇量和碳排放强度,并对其进行影响因素分解研究。在此基础上通过建立城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型,从系统角度分析城市人口、资本、土地、能源等投入,工业品、GDP、碳排放等产出之间的关系,得出武汉市土地利用碳排放的变化以及调控因素的作用,之后通过系统模型模拟分析武汉市土地利用碳排放各子系统的变化和可能的调控,深入研究城市经济、土地利用与碳排放系统之间的联系以及运行机理,进而提出符合城市可持续发展的土地利用碳减排的相关对策。研究的主要内容如下:(1)根据土地利用碳减排的实际需求提出了研究议题,并对国内外有关研究文献进行了综述。对土地利用碳排放机理、土地利用碳排放效应、土地利用碳排放测算、土地利用碳排放影响因素、城市土地利用碳减排以及系统动力学仿真模型等方面的研究进行学习,并对相关的研究观点、研究方法、研究结论进行了归纳,进而提出现有研究的不足——对于城市社会经济与土地利用碳排放的系统分析,各因子相互作用机理的研究还有待加强。(2)按照现行理论和实践的需求,界定了土地利用/覆被变化、土地利用碳排放、碳源碳汇和碳库、能源消耗、碳排放强度以及低碳土地利用的概念,并梳理了可持续发展理论、人地关系理论、系统科学理论以及土地优化配置理论,为本文的研究奠定理论基础。(3)根据不同土地类型分别计算了武汉市土地利用碳排放量以及碳汇量,之后得到土地利用净碳排放量。从总体上来分析,武汉市土地利用碳排放呈不断上涨趋势,由1996年的1282.92万吨增长到2014年的2579.38万吨,年均增长率为3.96%。而地均碳排放强度以及人均碳排放强度也呈现不断上涨趋势,分别由1996年的0.18万吨/平方公里与1.79吨/人,上升到2014年的0.36万吨/平方公里与3.12吨/人,年均增长率分别为3.93%与3.13%。而单位GDP碳排放强度逐年下降,从1996年的1.64吨/万元下降为2014年的0.26吨/万元,年均下降率为9.73%,这说明武汉市经济扩张的速度明显高于土地利用碳排放的增长速度。然后运用LMDI模型分解了影响武汉市土地利用碳排放的各因素,结果表明1997-2014年与基期年比较,土地利用结构因素、经济因素以及人口因素比较有力地推动了土地利用碳排放量的增长,累计贡献率分别为9.79%、85.11%以及5.10%的碳增量。而土地利用效率以及能源利用效率对武汉市土地利用的碳排放的增长起到了抑制的作用,累计贡献率分别为80.76%和19.24%的碳减排。(4)根据系统动力学的建模步骤,确定了模型的建模原则、建模目的以及系统边界,并将系统划分为碳排放土地子系统、碳排放经济子系统、碳排放人口子系统、碳排放能源子系统以及碳排放环境子系统。然后根据五个子系统之间的相互联系以及各变量间的反馈关系,利用Vensim软件得到城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型,并绘制出城市土地利用碳排放系统的因果关系图和流量图。(5)通过对武汉市社会经济历史数据以及实际发展情况的分析,确定武汉市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型的相关参数以及方程式,得到武汉市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型。然后运用直观与运行检验、历史检验和灵敏度分析对模型进行检验。检验结果表明:模型具有很好的稳定性,可以用来模拟实际系统。接着对武汉市土地利用碳排放系统进行仿真模拟,仿真时间为2016-2030年。仿真结果说明:(1)运用该模型预测武汉市土地利用碳排放量以及进行相对应的政策模拟是可行的,这一模型也将适用于其他地区类似问题的分析研究。(2)随着社会经济、城市人口等的进一步发展,武汉市土地利用碳排放总量将保持逐年攀升的趋势。从仿真结果可以看出武汉市未来碳减排任务还比较严峻,应加快制定低碳发展战略和低碳土地利用规划,早日实现土地的低碳利用。(6)通过改变不同的调控参数,利用参数的不同组合,分别对经济、人口、能源、土地、环境这五个子系统的不同政策情景进行模拟,然后将各个子系统不同方案进行归纳比较,得到五点结论:(1)经济高速增长是促进武汉市土地利用碳排放量增长最重要的原因,其次是土地利用结构调整,而人口增长水平相较于经济高速增长与土地利用结构调整,对土地利用碳排放量增长的影响作用还是相对较小。(2)调整土地利用结构,减少农用地向建设用地转变是抑制武汉市土地利用碳排放量的主要途径。(3)产业结构调整对减少土地利用碳排放量有着重要作用。(4)调整能源结构以及提高能源效率都可以在一定程度上减少土地利用碳排放量,但其作用效果有限。这也从侧面表明能源效率因素相对于土地以及经济因素而言对土地利用碳排放系统的作用较小。(5)相比较于土地利用结构的调整、产业结构的调整、能源结构的调整以及能源效率的提高,居民低碳意识的提高对土地利用碳减排的效果相对较弱。最后综合以上分析,对系统进行综合调整政策模拟,找到既能保障武汉市经济稳健增长,又能实现2022年土地利用碳排放达峰目标的模拟方案,为武汉市土地低碳利用的实现提供决策参考和研究支持。(7)根据前述的武汉市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模拟仿真研究成果,结合武汉市经济社会发展的实际情况,分别从经济系统、人口系统、土地系统、能源系统以及环境系统这五个方面提出了符合武汉市社会经济发展的土地利用碳减排对策与建议。针对经济系统提出的建议包括:(1)改变经济发展模式,全面推广低碳经济和循环经济;(2)调整产业结构,限制第二产业的发展,大力倡导发展第三产业;(3)鼓励高耗能行业转型,引进先进的低碳技术以及低碳设备,制定适宜武汉市发展的产业升级方案。针对人口系统提出的建议有保持计划生育政策实施的正效应,严格执行政府新出台的二孩政策,通过外部政策约束来达到放缓人口增速的目标。针对土地系统提出的建议包括:(1)完善耕地保护责任制度,实施生态农业;(2)保护草地、水域资源,发挥其在调蓄减排方面的重要功用;(3)加强对林地使用的监督,制止破坏林地的行为,保护武汉市的林地资源;(4)严格控制建设用地的规模,挖掘建设用地的内部潜力,实现集约化利用;(5)推进低碳土地利用制度创新与法律体系建设;(6)开发低碳土地利用技术。针对能源系统提出的建议包括:(1)加大科研投入力度,提升能源利用效率;(2)能源价格市场化,促进能源效率提升;(3)加大研发与推广新型能源的力度。针对环境系统提出的建议包括:(1)要将低碳环保因素纳入城市总体规划中,在总体规划的设计阶段就应加入低碳节能的相关概念;(2)积极倡导低碳生活,减少居民的碳足迹,将高消费高能耗的生活模式转变为低碳环保的生活模式。(8)结论和讨论,对全文进行了总结,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of the global population and the rapid development of social economy, the consumption of carbon based energy is the main resource for the development of the economy. At the same time, the problem of greenhouse gas pollution is becoming increasingly prominent. Climate warming, glacier melting, sea level rise, natural environment deterioration and frequent extreme weather have become the focus of all walks of life. The land carrying human production and living activities, the expansion of urbanization, economic development, resource consumption and land use are closely linked, the change of land use not only changed the city natural carbon cycle, but also indirectly affect the anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, previous studies on carbon emissions from land use often start from the release and influence mechanism of carbon emissions, calculate the carbon emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, and analyze the influencing factors of their changes, so as to put forward countermeasures to reduce carbon emissions. For urban social economic and land use carbon emissions system analysis, the interaction mechanism of each factor is studied, and according to the requirements of sustainable development, we need to further explore the role of controllable variables to urban system. Based on literature comprehensive land use carbon emissions on the city of all kinds of land natural and man-made sources of carbon emissions were calculated and analyzed. The land utilization of Wuhan City carbon emissions, carbon sequestration and carbon emission intensity of 1996-2014 was calculated, and the influence factors study. On this basis, through the establishment of carbon emissions by the dynamic system model of city land, analysis of city population, capital and land, energy and other inputs from the system point of view, the relationship between industrial products, GDP, carbon emissions and output, the changes in carbon emissions and control factors of land use in Wuhan City, then through the system simulation and analysis of changes the system of carbon emission of land use in Wuhan city and possible regulation, research on the utilization of city economy, land and carbon emissions of links between systems and operating mechanism, and then put forward in line with the city sustainable development of land use carbon emission reduction countermeasures. The main contents of the research are as follows: (1) the research topics are put forward according to the actual demand of carbon emission reduction in land use, and the relevant literature at home and abroad is reviewed. The mechanism of carbon emissions of land use, land use, land use and carbon emission effect of carbon emissions, carbon emission of land utilization factors, city land use reduction and the simulation model of system dynamics and other aspects of the research learning, and research ideas, research methods, research conclusions are summarized, and problems a study on city social economy and land use system of carbon emission analysis, study on the mechanism of each factor interaction has to be strengthened. (2) according to the current theoretical and practical needs, the definition of land use / cover change of land use, carbon emissions, carbon sinks and carbon pool, energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon land use concept, and summarizes the theory of sustainable development, human relations theory, system science theory and land optimization configuration theory, provides the theoretical basis for this study. (3) the carbon emissions and carbon sequestration of land use in Wuhan were calculated on the basis of different land types, and then the net carbon emissions from land use were obtained. From the overall analysis, the carbon emissions of land use in Wuhan showed a rising trend, from 12 million 829 thousand and 200 tons in 1996 to 25 million 793 thousand and 800 tons in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 3.96%. The average carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emission intensity also showed a rising trend, rising from 1 thousand and 800 tons per square meter in 1996 to 1.79 tons per person, to 3 thousand and 600 tons / square kilometer in 2014 and 3.12 tons per person, the average annual growth rate is 3.93% and 3.13% respectively. The intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP decreased year by year, from 1.64 tons per 10000 yuan in 1996 to 0.26 tons in 2014. The annual decline rate is 9.73%. This indicates that the speed of Wuhan's economic expansion is obviously higher than that of land use carbon emissions. And then use LMDI model to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emission of land use in Wuhan City, the results showed that 1997-2014 years compared with the base year, the land use structure factors, economic factors and demographic factors more effectively promoted the land use and carbon emissions growth, the cumulative contribution rate were 9.79%, 85.11% and 5.10% carbon increment. However, land use efficiency and energy efficiency played a role in inhibiting the growth of land use carbon emissions in Wuhan. The cumulative contribution rate was 80.76% and 19.24% respectively. (4) according to the system dynamics modeling steps, determine the modeling principle, modeling and system boundary, and divides the system into carbon emissions carbon emissions land subsystem, economic subsystem, carbon emissions, carbon emissions of the population subsystem, resource subsystem and environment subsystem of carbon emissions. Then, according to the relationship between the five subsystems and the feedback relationship among the variables, we use Vensim software to get the system dynamics model of the urban land use carbon emissions, and draw the causality diagram and traffic graph of the carbon emission system of urban land use. (5) through the analysis of the social economic history data and the actual development situation of Wuhan, we determined the relevant parameters and equations of the land use carbon emissions system dynamics model in Wuhan, and got the system dynamics model of the land use carbon emissions in Wuhan. Then the model is tested by intuitionistic and operational test, historical test and sensitivity analysis. The test results show that the model has good stability and can be used to simulate the actual system. Then the carbon emission system of land use in Wuhan was simulated, and the simulation time was 2016-2030 years. The simulation results show that: (1) the use of this
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F301.2

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