基于供给侧改革的中国钢铁产业转型升级研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 11:01

本文关键词：基于供给侧改革的中国钢铁产业转型升级研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,中国钢铁产业的发展面临着内忧外困的局面。中国已经进入工业化中后期,钢铁消费能力最强的几大行业都面临投资饱和或需求衰退的趋势。靠投资、出口、消费拉动的钢铁产业发展伴随的是重污染、高能耗、低技术含量、低附加值的问题,其实质是中低端产能严重过剩和高端产能供给不足的结构性失衡问题。随着全球产业竞争模式的高端化和资源环境压力的不断增大,原有发展模式已经严重拖累了经济与社会的协调及可持续发展。与此同时,全球经济疲软、贸易保护主义兴起、地区政治局势紧张等因素也使中国钢铁出口雪上加霜。因此,国内外的严峻形势倒逼中国钢铁产业在经济新常态背景下寻求更为合理的发展道路,这也就帮助本文确定了研究对象—中国钢铁产业转型升级问题。本文系统梳理和分析了前人对钢铁产业转型升级和供给侧经济改革的研究思路和实践经验,研究认为,中国只有改变过去的需求侧经济管理模式,在关注有效需求的同时,立足供给侧改革,深度调整钢铁产业结构,促使其优化升级,才能扭转钢铁产业的困局。本文以产业组织理论、产业布局理论、产业优化升级理论和可持续发展理论为指导,以世界钢铁工业协会、中国钢铁工业协会、各国统计局、世界银行、联合国数据库等公开数据为基础,运用人均矿产资源消费和人均GDP之间的“S”形规律、部门需求预测法和层次分析法等研究方法,对中国钢铁产业的产能规模、产品结构、产业布局进行了定量分析和建模评估,并给出了中长期的预测结果。研究取得如下主要成果和认识:1.运用矿产资源需求的“S”形规律对全球、中国钢铁中长期需求量和合理产能规模进行预测。根据人均GDP和人均钢消费关系的“S”形规律,对五类国家的钢消费历史进行分析并预测了五类国家未来的钢铁总需求量。研究结论认为,亚洲尤其是东亚,将在未来几十年内继续保持全球钢铁生产和消费中心的地位。此外,对参考经济情景下中国的粗钢和铁矿石需求进行了中长期预测,并得出了未来中国钢铁产业的合理产能规模。2.运用部门需求预测法预测中国未来合理钢铁产品结构。本文对中国主要用钢部门的钢铁消费情况进行了逐一分析,并对各部门中长期的钢铁需求进行了预测。通过构建钢铁消费部门和钢铁品种之间的相关性矩阵,对钢铁产品的品种结构变化趋势做了分析,认为热轧钢、中厚板、线棒材、管钢是去产能的重点,而中厚板和型钢是需要重点发展的优势钢种。3.在系统分析中国各省、区钢铁需求趋势的基础上,用层次分析法建立未来粗钢产能布局评价模型,对各省粗钢产能布局进行了定量评价,并对华北、华东、东北、华中、华南、西南、西北七个区域的未来产能布局进行了综合评估。研究认为,到2030年之前,东部沿海仍然是中国粗钢消费的核心区域,中部、西南和西北三个区域消费峰值时的人均消费量都远低于东部,反映出经济转型对资源消费的影响。4.综上研究,本文提出了钢铁产业供给侧改革的对策和建议:(1)严格产业准入限制,设置合理的产能上限;加快清理过剩产能和违规企业的退出障碍,积极推动优质产能和优势企业的兼并重组。(2)钢铁产业调整的重心还应该放在新型品种和稀缺产品的研发上,以提高国际竞争力,因此要加大科研资金投入,促进原始创新和吸收创新。(3)把生态科技融入产业转型中,制定严格的排放标准,完善生态环境补偿机制。(4)建议“北钢南移”,加快南方钢铁产业园区建设,以便对东盟国家进行出口。(5)借助“一带一路”战略规划,推动钢铁产能的对外输出。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of Chinese iron and steel industry is facing the crisis of situation. China has entered the middle and late industrialization, and the most powerful industries of steel consumption are facing the trend of saturation of investment or the decline of demand. The development of iron and steel industry driven by investment, export and consumption is accompanied by heavy pollution, high energy consumption, low technology content and low added value. Its essence is the structural imbalance between low and medium end capacity and excess capacity supply. With the upgrading of the global industrial competition mode and the increasing pressure of resources and environment, the original development mode has seriously dragged the economic and social coordination and sustainable development. At the same time, the weakness of the global economy, the rise of trade protectionism and the tension of the political situation in the region have also made China's steel exports worse. Therefore, the grim situation at home and abroad forced Chinese steel industry to seek a more reasonable development path under the background of new economic normal. This helps to identify the object of study -- the transformation and upgrading of China's steel industry. This paper summarizes and analyzes the predecessor to the steel industry to upgrade and supply side economic reform research and practice experience, studies suggest that Chinese only by changing the demand side economy management mode in the past, focusing on effective demand at the same time, based on the supply side reforms, the depth of industry structure adjustment, promote the optimization and upgrading, in order to reverse the steel industry dilemma. Based on the theory of industrial organization, industrial layout theory, industrial upgrading and sustainable development theory, the public data of world iron and Steel Industry Association, Chinese iron and Steel Industry Association, National Bureau of statistics, the world bank, the United Nations database as the foundation, use between mineral resources consumption and per capita GDP was "S" shaped pattern department, demand forecasting method and AHP method, the Chinese steel industry production scale, product structure, industrial layout for the quantitative analysis and evaluation model, and the prediction results are given in the long term. The main achievements and understandings are as follows: 1., we predict the long-term demand and reasonable capacity of China's steel industry by using the "S" rule of mineral resources demand. According to the "S" rule of the relationship between per capita GDP and per capita steel consumption, the history of steel consumption in five countries is analyzed, and the total steel demand of the five countries in the future is forecasted. It is concluded that Asia, especially East Asia, will continue to maintain the status of the global steel production and consumption center in the next few decades. In addition, China's demand for rough steel and iron ore under the reference economic situation was predicted in the middle and long term, and the reasonable capacity scale of China's iron and steel industry in the future was obtained. 2. using the Department demand forecast method to predict the future reasonable steel product structure in China. In this paper, the iron and steel consumption in the main steel sector in China is analyzed one by one, and the medium and long term steel demand in each department is predicted. By constructing the correlation matrix between steel and steel consumption sector varieties, the varieties of steel products structure change trend analysis done, that hot rolled steel, plate, wire rod, steel tube is the key to the production capacity, the plate and the steel is steel need to focus on the development of dominant species. Based on analyzing the 3. provinces, China District steel demand trend, establish future crude steel production capacity layout evaluation model by AHP, the quantitative evaluation of the crude steel production capacity layout, and on the north, East, northeast, central, southwest, northwest Southern China, seven areas of future production layout of the comprehensive evaluation. According to the study, by the year 2030, the eastern coastal area is still the core area of China's crude steel consumption. The consumption per capita in the three regions of central, southwest and northwest is far below the eastern level, reflecting the impact of economic transformation on resource consumption. 4., based on the above research, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the supply side reform of iron and steel industry: (1) strict industrial access restrictions, setting up reasonable upper limit of production capacity, speeding up the clearance of excess capacity and illegal enterprises' withdrawal barriers, and actively promoting the annexation and reorganization of high-quality production capacity and dominant enterprises. (2) the focus of iron and steel industry adjustment should also be on the R & D of new varieties and scarce products, so as to enhance international competitiveness. Therefore, we should increase investment in scientific research, promote original innovation and absorb innovation. (3) to integrate ecological science and technology into industrial transformation, formulate strict emission standards and improve the ecological environment compensation mechanism. (4) suggested that "North southward, speeding up the construction of the South Steel Industrial Park, in order to carry out export to ASEAN countries. (5) the The Belt and Road "strategic planning, promote the export of iron and steel production capacity.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31

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