吉林省产业结构变动对区域经济增长影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 15:29

  本文关键词：吉林省产业结构变动对区域经济增长影响研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 产业结构 优化升级 城镇化 区域经济增长

【摘要】：2013年我国第三产业增加值首次超过第二产业增加值,服务业增加值超过工业,第三产业成为占国民经济比重最大的产业部门,服务业成为国民经济发展的支柱产业。目前综合考虑产业结构、城镇化水平等因素,我国已经开始呈现工业化发展后期的特征,进入新常态。随着人口和产业的不断集聚,服务业发展及其内部结构优化也迎来了新的发展机遇。优化产业结构,大力发展现代服务业,加快推进产业结构转型升级,实现新旧动能的转换,成为当前研究的重要课题之一。因此,本文以吉林省产业结构变动为线索,试图寻找吉林省产业结构变动的规律以及其对经济增长的影响,为推动产业结构转型升级提供参考。本文梳理分析了区域经济发展相关理论和全国产业结构演进历程的宏观环境。从全国产出结构看,目前第三产业居主导地位,服务业已经成为接替工业成为推动经济发展的新动力。在此基础上,本文对吉林省产业结构演进历程进行了全面梳理,并对各阶段的产业结构特点进行了分析,梳理了吉林省产业结构演进特征。综合考虑经济发展水平、三次产业产值结构、城镇化率、第一产业就业人员占比等因素,吉林省的工业化进程落后于全国的平均水平,与全国相比相对滞后,没有进入工业化后期。从吉林省三次产业产出结构看,在目前第二产业仍居主导地位,服务业尚未能接替工业成为城镇化进程中推动区域经济发展的新动力,服务业发展水平低于全国的平均水平。从就业结构看,第三产业从业人员占比较大,服务业已经成为吸纳就业的主力产业部门。吉林省服务业地区发展不均衡,长春、吉林两地优势突出,两地服务业占全省服务业比重较高,成为吉林省服务业发展的两大增长极,是全省服务业发展的核心区域,其优势明显强于东西部地区。本文基于全国省际统计数据,研究了我国产业结构对经济增长的影响,全面了考察城镇化对经济增长的直接和间接传导机制的影响。得到以下主要结论:工业化对经济增长的影响具有地区差异,在东部和西部地区具有促进作用,中部地区做并不显著,东北地区有抑制作用。产业结构高级化也存在地区差异,在东部和西部地区具有促进作用,在东北地区和中部地区具有抑制作用。在四大区域城镇进程的推进均有利于经济的增长,并且城镇化进程与经济增长呈倒“U”型关系。城镇化的间接传导途径存在区域性的差异,在东部和东北地区存在抑制作用,在中西部地区存在促进作用,并且间接的传导效应明显低于直接效应。改革开放以来,吉林省经济快速发展,各产业发展成绩显著。工业和服务业已成为拉动经济增长的主要动力,尤其是服务业的发展成为经济结构优化的重要衡量指标。本文基于吉林省的统计数据,研究了吉林省产业结构对经济增长的影响,全面了考察吉林省城镇化对区域经济增长的直接和间接传导机制的影响。得到以下主要结论:工业化、产业结构高级化对吉林省三大区域经济经济增长具有促进作用。从全省的角度,城镇化对区域经济增长的影响呈现出明显的区域性差异,在东部和西部地区具有促进作用,在中部地区出现了不显著的情况,但间接作用上在三大区域都具有促进作用,城镇化仍是吉林省加快发展的关键。财政支出水平对吉林省区域经济增长的影响具有明显的区域性差异,在东部地域负相关,但在中部和西部地区能够促进区域经济的增长。金融发展水平的提高对经济增长的促进作用还没有发挥出来。在经验分析的基础上,结合目前吉林省经济运行的主要特点,进一步对吉林省的产业结构优化升级进行swot分析,找出吉林省产业结构调整面临的内部优势和劣势,外部的机遇和挑战。从吉林省内部情况看,吉林省具有发展支持政策多,开发区综合实力强,汽车、石化、农产品加工三大支柱产业发展态势良好,人才培养优势明显,科技创新能力较强,投资结构不断优化,对外投资迈出新步伐等多方面的优势;同时面临着三次产业结构不合理、内部工业结构失衡,内需乏力,投入产出效率较低,服务业发展区域结构失衡等劣势。从外部环境看,国家出台了支持东北地区发展的一系列优惠政策,吉林省面临着重要的政策机遇期,长春吉林区域一体化稳步推进,边境口岸服务能力不断提升,交通物流基础设施进一步完善,“互联网+”方兴未艾。但也面临着东北地区三省产业结构同质化的挑战,人口人才流失,外贸形势严峻,市场化程度不高等问题。最后,基于吉林省产业结构的演进历程和经验分析结论,结合吉林省区域经济社会发展实际,为了实现吉林省产业结构转型升级,提出了要合理布局产业结构,提高金融服务能力,提高自主创新能力,科学推进城镇化进程,优化对外通道,优化发展软环境,加强区域间合作,积极融入一带一路战略等建议。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the added value of the third industry in China for the first time exceeds the value added of the second industry. The added value of the service industry exceeds that of the industry. The third industry has become the largest sector of the national economy. The service industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy. At present, considering the industrial structure, the level of urbanization and other factors, China has begun to present the characteristics of the late development of industrialization and enter a new normal. With the continuous gathering of population and industry, the development of service industry and the optimization of its internal structure have also welcomed new opportunities for development. Optimizing industrial structure, vigorously developing modern service industry, speeding up the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and realizing the transformation of new and old kinetic energy have become one of the important topics in current research. Therefore, taking the change of industrial structure in Jilin Province as a clue, this paper tries to find out the law of industrial structure change in Jilin province and its impact on economic growth, so as to provide references for promoting transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. This paper analyzes the related theories of regional economic development and the macro environment of the evolution of the national industrial structure. From the view of the national output structure, the third industry is at the dominant position, and the service industry has become a new driving force for the replacement of industry to promote economic development. On this basis, this paper makes a comprehensive combing of the evolution of Jilin's industrial structure, analyzes the characteristics of industrial structure at various stages, and combs the evolution characteristics of Jilin's industrial structure. Considering the economic development level, the three industry output structure, the urbanization rate and the employment ratio of the first industry and other factors, the industrialization process of Jilin is lagging behind the national average level, which is lagging behind the whole country and has not entered the late stage of industrialization. From Jilin Province, three industrial structure, in the second industry still dominates, the service industry has yet to succeed industry has become a new driving force to promote regional economic development in the process of urbanization, the development level of the service sector is lower than the national average levels. From the view of the employment structure, the employment of the third industry is relatively large, and the service industry has become the main industry department to absorb the employment. The development of Jilin's service industry is not balanced. The advantages of Changchun and Jilin are outstanding. The service industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of the whole province's service industry. It has become the two growth pole of the development of the service industry in Jilin Province, and the core area of the whole province's service industry development. Its advantage is stronger than that of the eastern and western regions. Based on the inter provincial statistical data, this paper studies the impact of China's industrial structure on economic growth, and comprehensively examines the impact of urbanization on the direct and indirect transmission mechanism of economic growth. The following conclusions are drawn: the impact of industrialization on economic growth has regional differences, and has a promoting role in the eastern and western regions. There are regional differences in the advanced industrial structure, which can promote the eastern and western regions, and have an inhibitory effect in the northeast and central regions. The progress of urban processes in the four major regions is conducive to economic growth, and the process of urbanization and economic growth have an inverted "U" relationship. There are regional differences in indirect transmission of urbanization, which has inhibitory effects in the eastern and northeastern regions, and has a promoting role in the central and western regions, and the indirect conduction effect is obviously lower than the direct effect. Since the reform and opening up, the economy of Jilin province has developed rapidly, and the achievements of various industries have been remarkable. Industry and service industry have become the main driving force for stimulating economic growth, especially the development of service industry has become an important measure of economic structure optimization. Based on the statistical data of Jilin Province, this paper studies the impact of Jilin's industrial structure on economic growth, and comprehensively examines the impact of Jilin's urbanization on the direct and indirect transmission mechanism of regional economic growth. The following main conclusions are obtained: industrialization and industrial structure advanced to promote economic and economic growth of the three major regions of Jilin province. From the angle of urbanization shows obvious regional difference effects on regional economic growth, plays a promoting role in the eastern and western regions, the situation is not significant in the central region, but the indirect effect in the three regions have a role in promoting the urbanization is still the key to accelerate the development of Jilin province. The impact of fiscal expenditure on Jilin's regional economic growth has obvious regional differences, and negatively related to eastern regions. But in the central and western regions, it can promote regional economic growth. The improvement of the level of financial development has not yet played a role in promoting economic growth. On the basis of empirical analysis and combined with the main characteristics of Jilin's economic operation, SWOT analysis of Jilin's industrial structure optimization and upgrading is carried out to find out the internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and challenges faced by Jilin's industrial structure adjustment. From the internal situation in Jilin Province, Jilin Province, with the development of policy support, the development zone comprehensive strength, the development trend of automobile, petrochemical, agricultural products processing industry three pillars of good talent advantages, strong technological innovation, constantly optimize the investment structure, foreign investment has taken new steps and many other advantages; at the same time face the industrial structure is not reasonable, three internal industrial structure imbalance, weak domestic demand, the low efficiency of input and output, the service industry development of regional structural imbalances and other weaknesses. From the external environment, the state issued a series of preferential policies to support the development of the northeast region, Jilin province is facing important opportunities policy, Jilin regional integration Changchun steadily, constantly improve the border service capacity, transportation and logistics infrastructure to further improve, "Internet plus" just unfolding. But it also faces the challenge of the homogeneity of the industrial structure of the three provinces in Northeast China, the loss of the population, the severe foreign trade situation and the low degree of marketization. Finally, based on the evolution process of the industrial structure of Jilin
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
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本文编号：1342283