偏向性技术进步下中国能源强度变动研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 17:09

  本文关键词：偏向性技术进步下中国能源强度变动研究　出处：《暨南大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 偏向性技术进步 能源增强型CES生产函数 替代弹性 能源强度 碳强度目标

【摘要】：本文从外生偏向性技术进步和内生偏向性技术进步两个视角研究了我国的能源强度变动原因,基于此分析了我国改革开放以来能源强度不断下降和2002-2005年间能源强度出现逆势上升的原因,并进一步对我国2020年的能源强度目标和碳目标进行了可行性分析。首先本文通过构建标准化能源增强型CES生产函数来测算能源增强型技术进步序列;接着本文从理论和实证两个方面对此能源增强型技术进步进行了内生性研究;然后本文采用指数分解法和回归法从外生偏向性技术进步和内生偏向性技术进步两个角度对我国1981-2014年的能源强度增长率进行了分解,找到了影响能源强度变动的主要因素;最后同样从外生和内生偏向性技术进步两个角度对能源强度目标和碳目标进行了可行性分析。本文得出的结论主要有:第一,非嵌套式的能源增强型CES生产函数比嵌套式更贴近中国的实际,在非嵌套式下得到的两两要素间的替代弹性为0.367,能源增强型技术进步年均增长率为3.92%;第二,要素相对增强型技术与要素相对价格、国际贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,这说明我国技术进步的方向是具有内生性的;第三,从外生偏向性技术进步下的分解模型来看,能源增强型技术进步在我国能源强度的变化中起着主要的解释作用,能源增强型技术进步解释了70%的能源强度变化,能源价格解释了30%的能源强度变化;第四,从内生偏向性技术进步下的分解模型来看,影响能源强度变化的主要因素是研发投入,其次是能源价格,接下来是外商直接投资,产业结构则为负贡献因素;第五,在未来实际能源价格1.5%、2.5%、3.5%三种增速情景下,要同时实现能源强度和碳强度目标的话,能源增强型技术进步年均增速需分别达到5.19%、4.92%、4.64%,而要达到这一增速的话,我国2020年末的第三产业比重需要调整至57.174%、56.523%、55.855%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the causes of energy intensity change in China are studied from the perspectives of exogenous biased technological progress and endogenous biased technological progress. Based on this analysis of the energy intensity of China since the reform and opening up and the energy intensity from 2002-2005 to rise in reverse trend reasons. Furthermore, the feasibility of energy intensity target and carbon target in 2020 is analyzed. Firstly, this paper calculates the progress sequence of energy enhanced technology by constructing standardized energy enhanced CES production function. Secondly, this paper makes an endogenous study on the energy enhanced technology from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Then this paper uses exponential decomposition method and regression method to decompose the energy intensity growth rate from 1981 to 2014 in China from the perspective of exogenous biased technological progress and endogenous biased technological progress. The main factors influencing the change of energy intensity are found. At last, the feasibility of energy intensity target and carbon target is analyzed from the perspective of exogenous and endogenous biased technological progress. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first. The non-nested energy enhanced CES production function is closer to the reality of China than the nested one. The substitution elasticity between the two elements obtained under the non-nested formula is 0.367. The average annual growth rate of energy enhanced technology progress is 3.92%; Secondly, there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the relative enhanced technology and the relative price of the elements and the international trade, which shows that the direction of technological progress in China is endogenous; Thirdly, from the decomposition model of exogenous biased technological progress, the energy-enhanced technological progress plays a major role in explaining the change of energy intensity in China. The energy enhancement technology has explained the change of energy intensity in 70% and the energy price in 30%. 4th, from the decomposition model of endogenous biased technological progress, the main factor affecting the change of energy intensity is R & D investment, followed by energy price, followed by foreign direct investment. The industrial structure is a negative contribution factor; In 5th, in the future, the actual energy price 1.5 and 2.5% of the three growth rate scenarios, to achieve energy intensity and carbon intensity targets at the same time. The annual average annual growth rate of energy enhanced technological progress needs to reach 5.19% 4.92% 4.64% respectively, and if we want to achieve this growth rate. In end of 2020, the proportion of tertiary industry in China needs to be adjusted to 57.174 and 56.5233.55.855.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.2
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本文编号：1393468