经济政策不确定性与农业上市公司财务决策

发布时间：2018-01-10 12:20

  本文关键词：经济政策不确定性与农业上市公司财务决策　出处：《内蒙古农业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 经济政策不确定性 农业上市公司 投资 资本结构 税收规避 现金持有

【摘要】：农业的一个主要特征是农业决策面临较高程度的不确定性。农业决策的不确定性来源主要包括气候变动不确定性、价格波动不确定性、经济政策不确定性。虽然气候变动不确定性和价格波动不确定性对农业决策的影响得到了广泛的研究和探讨,然而,考察经济政策不确定性对农业决策影响的相关研究仍然十分缺乏。近年来经济政策不确定性对经济主体决策的影响越来越受到广泛重视。本文旨在从农业上市公司层面分析和实证考察经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司财务决策的影响。首先,本文引入期望效用理论和风险规避概念。这一理论模型包括一些程式化模型的比较静态结果,符合存在风险条件下的农业决策分析。然后,结合不确定条件下投资决策的实物期权理论,本文将这一基本理论扩展到价格和政策不确定条件下的模型分析。本文以政府补助的随机提供和撤回构建不确定性,考察其对农业最佳投资时机和最佳投资规模的影响,通过理论模型的构建和推导,发现不确定性会对农业决策产生显著影响,尤其是农业投资决策,不确定性的存在降低了最佳的投资临界点和相应的最佳投资水平。接下来,本文使用基于新闻媒体评价经济政策不确定性进行文本分析构建的中国经济政策不确定性指数,对中国农业上市公司2004-2014年的季度数据进行实证检验,主要结论如下:1.结合农业上市公司投资决策面临不确定性的特征,以及上市公司投资理论(特别是实物期权理论)的最新进展,分析表明经济政策不确定性会减少农业上市公司投资。实证结果表明其他条件不变,经济政策不确定性每增加1个标准差,农业上市公司投资会减少20%左右。考虑到中国政府长期实施稳定的、扶持性的农业政策,分析表明经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司投资的负向影响低于非农业上市公司。实证结果表明经济政策不确定性每提高1个标准差,相比非农业上市公司的投资,农业上市公司投资减少的程度要低4%左右。扩展视角研究的结果表明在公司的投资不可逆转性较高时、已有项目的投资回报率较高时、公司没有多元化经营时以及公司属于非国有控股上市公司时,经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司与非农业上市公司投资影响的差异显著更大。2.结合农业上市公司资本结构决策面临不确定性的特征,以及上市公司资本结构理论的最新进展,分析表明经济政策不确定性会降低农业上市公司资产负债率。实证结果表明其他条件不变,经济政策不确定性每增加1个标准差,农业上市公司资产负债率会减少25%左右。考虑到中国农业政策的影响,分析表明经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司资本结构的负向影响低于非农业上市公司。实证结果表明经济政策不确定性每提高1个标准差,相比非农业上市公司的资产负债率,农业上市公司资产负债率减少的程度要低7%左右。扩展视角研究的结果表明在公司不存在银行关联时、地区市场化程度较低时、公司年龄较大时以及公司属于非国有控股上市公司时,经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司与非农业上市公司资本结构影响的差异显著更大。3.结合农业上市公司税收规避决策面临不确定性的特征,以及上市公司税收规避理论的最新进展,分析表明经济政策不确定性会增加农业上市公司税收规避。实证结果表明其他条件不变,经济政策不确定性每增加1个标准差,农业上市公司的税收规避会增加5%左右。考虑到中国农业政策的影响,分析表明经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司税收规避的正向影响低于非农业上市公司。实证结果表明经济政策不确定性每提高1个标准差,相比非农业上市公司税收规避,农业上市公司税收规避增加的程度要低12%左右。扩展视角研究的结果表明在公司现金流不确定性较高时、价格成本边际较高时、政治不确定性较高时以及公司属于非国有控股上市公司时,经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司与非农业上市公司税收规避影响的差异显著更大。4.结合农业上市公司现金持有决策面临不确定性的特征,以及上市公司现金持有理论的最新进展,分析表明经济政策不确定性会增加农业上市公司的现金持有。实证结果表明其他条件不变,经济政策不确定性每增加1个标准差,农业上市公司的现金持有会增加70%左右。考虑到中国农业政策的影响,分析表明经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司现金持有的正向影响低于非农业上市公司。实证结果表明经济政策不确定性每提高1个标准差,相比非农业上市公司现金持有,农业上市公司现金持有增加的程度要低8%左右。扩展视角研究的结果表明在公司融资约束程度较高时、成长机会较好时、学习能力较弱时以及公司属于非国有控股上市公司时,经济政策不确定性对农业上市公司与非农业上市公司现金持有影响的差异显著更大。研究结论有助于中国经济政策制定者理解经济政策不确定性对农业层面产生影响的作用机理以及影响程度,为经济政策制定机构优化经济政策的制定提供参考依据。而且,本文所提供的来自于中国这一最大发展中国家经济政策不确定性与农业决策的经验证据,也为其他发展中国家的经济政策制定提供参考依据。对于农业上市公司、公司制农业或者家庭农场的决策者而言,本文研究有助于他们在面临经济政策不确定性时,优化农业投资、融资等决策,合理配置农业资源,以获取更好的业绩。本文对经济政策不确定性作用于农业决策的约束条件进行分析和实证检验,为他们结合自身农业生产经营的特征制定最优决策提供参考依据。本文以农业上市公司展开分析与实证检验,有助于广泛资本市场参与者对公司进行合理定价,对提高资本市场效率和优化资源配置具有现实意义。
[Abstract]:One of the main features of agriculture is the agricultural decision facing higher degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty of decision making of agricultural sources include climate change uncertainty, price uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty. Although the climate change uncertainty and price volatility Uncertainty Impact on agricultural decision has been widely studied and discussed, however study on economic policy, related to the impact of uncertainty on the agricultural decision is still lacking. In recent years the economic policy uncertainty impact on economic decision-making more and more attention. This paper aims to influence from the agricultural listed company level analysis and Empirical Study of economic policy uncertainty on financial decision in listed agricultural companies. Firstly, this paper introduces the expectation the concept of utility theory and risk aversion. This model includes the comparative static results of some stylized model, With risk analysis under the condition of agricultural decision-making. Then, combined with the uncertainty of real option theory in investment decision under the condition, this paper extends the basic theory to price and policy uncertainty analysis under the conditions of the model. In this paper, government subsidies and the withdrawal of uncertainty is constructed randomly, to investigate its effect on the optimum timing of investment in agriculture and the best investment scale, and by constructing the theoretical model, found that the uncertainty will have a significant impact on the agricultural decision, especially agricultural investment decision, the uncertainty reduces the investment threshold and the corresponding optimal optimal investment level. Then, this paper use news media evaluation of economic policy uncertainty based on economic Chinese construction policy analysis of the uncertainty of the text index, an empirical test of China agricultural listed companies quarterly data of 2004-2014, the main The conclusions are as follows: 1. with the investment decision of agricultural listed companies facing uncertainty, investment theory and listed companies (especially the real option theory) the latest developments, analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will reduce agricultural investment in listed companies. The empirical results show that the invariant conditions he economic policy uncertainty, 1 standard deviation increase agricultural listed companies, investment will be reduced by about 20%. Considering the long-term stability of the implementation of Chinese government support, agricultural policy, economic policy analysis shows that the uncertainty of agricultural listed companies investment negative effect is lower than that of non agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty for every 1 increase in standard deviation, compared with non listed agricultural the company's investment, agricultural listed companies investment to reduce the degree of about 4% lower. From the perspective of the results of the study show that the transfer of investment in the company is not reversible The project is high, a higher rate of return on investment, no company diversification and companies belonging to the non state controlled listed companies, the difference of uncertainty of economic policy effects on the investment of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies were significantly greater in.2. combined with the agricultural listed companies capital structure decisions facing uncertainty, the latest progress and capital structure of Listed Companies in theory, analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will reduce the asset liability ratio of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that other conditions remain unchanged, the economic policy uncertainty of 1 standard deviation increase, agricultural asset liability ratio of listed companies will be reduced by about 25%. Considering the influence of agricultural policy China, economic analysis shows that policy uncertainty on capital structure of agricultural listed companies is lower than the negative effects of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic. Policy uncertainty every 1 increase in standard deviation, non asset liability ratio of agricultural listed companies compared to agricultural asset liability ratio of listed companies to reduce the degree of about 7% lower. From the perspective of the results of the study show that the company does not exist in the banking association, the degree of regional marketization is low, the company is large and the company belongs to non age the state-owned listed company, the difference of uncertainty of economic policy impact on the capital structure of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies significantly greater.3. tax evasion decisions in the face of uncertainty with the agricultural listed company, and the latest progress of listed companies to evade tax theory, analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty will increase the tax of agricultural listed companies to avoid. The empirical results show that other conditions remain unchanged, the economic policy uncertainty of 1 standard deviation increase, agricultural listed companies will increase the tax evasion Add about 5%. Considering the influence of agricultural policy Chinese, analysis shows that the uncertainty of economic policy and positive influence on agricultural listed companies, tax avoidance is lower than that of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty for every 1 increase in standard deviation, compared to non agricultural listed company tax evasion, tax avoidance of agricultural listed companies to increase the degree of about 12% lower. From the perspective of the results of the study show that the uncertainty in the company's cash flow is higher, the higher marginal price cost, political uncertainty is high and the company belongs to the non state-owned listed companies, the difference of economic policy uncertainty of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies tax avoidance effects were significantly greater in.4. cash holding decision facing uncertainty with the agricultural listed companies, listed companies and cash holdings of recent advances in theory, analysis shows The economic policy uncertainty will increase agricultural cash holdings of listed companies. The empirical results show that other conditions remain unchanged, the economic policy uncertainty per 1 standard deviation increase in agriculture, the cash holdings of listed companies will increase about 70%. Considering the influence of agricultural policy Chinese, economic policy uncertainty analysis showed positive influence on the cash holdings of listed agricultural the company is lower than that of agricultural listed companies. The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty for every 1 increase in standard deviation, compared to non cash holdings of listed agricultural companies, agricultural listed companies cash holdings increased to about 8%. Degree of low expansion from the perspective of the results of the study show that in the high degree of financing constraints, better growth opportunities, learning when the company is weak and non state-owned listed companies, economic policy uncertainty of agricultural listed companies and non listed agricultural companies Differences in cash holdings significantly larger. The conclusion of the study contributes to China economic policy makers understand the economic policy uncertainty mechanism affect agriculture level as well as the influence to economic policy, optimize the economic policy mechanism to provide reference. Moreover, evidence from the largest developing countries China economic policy the uncertainty and agricultural decision provided by this paper, but also for other developing countries to the economic policy to provide reference for agricultural listed companies, corporate or agricultural family farms, decision makers, the thesis can help them in the face of economic policy uncertainty, optimization of agricultural investment and financing decision-making, rational allocation of agricultural resources and in order to get better performance. This paper analyzes constraints on economic policy uncertainty in agricultural decision And the empirical test, to provide reference for their own optimal decision combined with the characteristics of agricultural production and operation. In this paper, the agricultural listed company launches the analysis and empirical test, contribute to a wide range of capital market participants the reasonable pricing of the company, has practical significance to improve the efficiency of capital market and optimize the allocation of resources.

【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F302.6;F324
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本文编号：1405261