有限理性下出租车合乘行为及演化研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 02:01

本文关键词：有限理性下出租车合乘行为及演化研究　出处：《兰州交通大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：出租车合乘模式具有缓解城市交通拥堵、节约资源、减少污染的优势,许多国家已经实施了合乘制度,并取得了较好的效果,而我国各大城市也正在逐步推行出租车合乘制度以缓解各地的交通问题。目前我国正处于出租车合乘制度的起步阶段,合乘制度的实施过程中存在诸多亟待解决的问题。乘客与司机的行为对合乘制度的执行影响较大,现实中的很多乘客与司机拒绝合乘的现象十分普遍,这将严重阻碍合乘制度的实施。因此,对合乘制度下乘客与司机的行为研究显得十分必要。考虑到人类的非完全理性特点,本文在有限理性框架下,基于前景理论、演化博弈等理论方法,对出租车合乘行为问题展开了深入的研究,具体工作如下:(1)研究了出租车合乘效果,提出了一种合乘效果仿真分析方法。通过分析不同合乘情形下的乘客费用及司机收入,建立了出租车合乘模型,设计仿真算法,从乘客费用、司机收入及出租车市场的载客能力方面对合乘效果进行仿真,并分析了支付比例及交通拥堵率对合乘效果的影响,验证了合乘模式的有效性,得到了合乘效果的影响性规律。(2)研究了乘客的合乘行为,提出了一种乘客合乘决策的分析方法。以乘客的行程时间、费用及舒适度为指标,基于前景理论建立了乘客合乘决策模型,分析不同参照点下的乘客合乘行为以及乘客合乘决策的影响因素。提出的合乘决策分析方法兼顾了乘客的心理因素及交通状况的不确定性,体现了乘客的有限理性决策特点,是一种不确定环境下的乘客合乘决策的分析方法。(3)研究了司机的合乘行为,提出一种合乘模式下司机收入变化及其行为分析的方法。通过分析不同情形下司机的收入,考虑司机的公平心理,基于公平理论建立司机收入公平模型,研究了合乘模式下司机的平均收入及个体收入的变化,分析了司机收入变化的影响因素。所提出的司机收入公平模型考虑了司机的心理特点,分析了司机公平心理导致的行为变化,为有限理性下司机合乘行为分析提供了新的思路。(4)研究了乘客与司机的合乘策略,基于提出的乘客合乘决策方法深入研究了乘客在不同合乘情形下的策略选择,并将前景理论引入演化博弈中,改进了演化博弈模型,建立了乘客与司机的合乘策略博弈模型,利用复制动态机制进行演化分析,从而得到合乘稳定策略。该方法克服了演化博弈模型中完全理性的策略收益的问题,既考虑到合乘主体收益判断的有限理性,又兼顾了有限理性参与人策略的动态调整。(5)研究了合乘绕行问题,提出了合乘绕行分析方法。一方面,基于前景理论与演化博弈理论建立了绕行条件下乘客之间的合乘路径的博弈模型,分析了乘客路径博弈的稳定策略及其影响因素;另一方面,建立了绕行条件下司机的合乘策略模型,分析了司机合乘绕行策略的演化结果,并且引入投诉机制,进一步研究投诉机制下司机合乘策略的演化稳定策略及其影响因素,得出在合乘制度下投诉机制能够有效地防范司机拒载行为的结论。合乘绕行分析方法能够在有限理性条件下研究出现合乘绕行时的乘客及司机行为,从而进一步分析能够保证合乘绕行顺利进行的措施。本文从有限理性的新视角对出租车合乘行为展开研究。论文建立了合乘效果模型,提出了一种合乘效果分析方法;基于前景理论建立了乘客合乘行为决策模型,提出了一种乘客的合乘行为分析方法;将心理学理论引入行为建模,构建了司机收入公平模型,为合乘行为研究提供了新的思路;首次结合前景理论与演化博弈理论,提出了一种新的基于前景值的演化博弈方法,弥补了演化博弈模型中收益判断完全理性的缺陷;构建了乘客与司机的策略演化模型,分析了双方的稳定策略;并建立了合乘绕行条件下的乘客路径博弈模型及司机策略模型,专门对合乘绕行问题进行研究,为合乘问题做了完善性研究工作。论文对出租车合乘行为进行了深入分析,以新的视角开展了一系列有限理性条件下出租车合乘行为的基础理论研究,研究结论可为城市出租车合乘行为提供理论支持,对交通合乘政策的制定有重要指导意义。
[Abstract]:The taxi ride can alleviate the city traffic congestion, save resources, reduce pollution, many countries have implemented by the system, and achieved good results, and China's major city is gradually implementing taxi system to alleviate traffic problems around. At present our country is in the initial stage of taxi carpool system, there exist many problems to be solved in the implementation process of carpool system. Passengers and driver behavior of large impact of implementation of carpool system, many passengers and drivers in reality refused to carpool phenomenon is very common, this will seriously hinder the implementation of the carpool system. Therefore, it is necessary to study on the behavior of carpool passengers and drivers is under the system. Considering the human non rational characteristics, based on the limited rationality framework, based on prospect theory, evolutionary game theory method, on a taxi ride Conducts a thorough study on the behavioral problems, the specific work is as follows: (1) to study the effect of taxi, proposes a carpool effect simulation analysis method. Through the analysis of different situations by the cost of passengers and drivers of income, set up a taxi model design, simulation algorithm, from the aspects of the cost of passengers, the driver and the taxi market revenue capacity is simulated by effect, and analyzes the payment ratio and traffic congestion rate of carpool effect, verified by the effectiveness of the rules of carpool effect. (2) studied the passenger ride behavior analysis is proposed. A method of decision making. To carpool passengers travel time of passengers, costs and comfort index based on prospect theory established by passengers decision model, analysis of different reference points under the passenger ride behavior and passenger ride decision. The influencing factors. Put forward by decision analysis method considers the psychological factors of passengers and traffic situation of uncertainty, embodies the characteristics of the limited rationality of passengers, is a kind of uncertain environment passengers carpool decision analysis method. (3) of the driver's carpool behavior, put forward a kind of method take the mode driver income changes and behavior analysis. Through the analysis of different circumstances of driver's income, consider the fair psychological drivers, fair theory to establish fair income driver model based on the research by the change in average income and individual income mode drivers, analyzes the influencing factors of the driver. The driver changes in income income equity model the consideration of the psychological characteristics of drivers, analyzes the behavior changes caused by the driver of unfair psychology, provides a new idea for the limited rational driver by behavior analysis. (4) research of passengers With the driver of the carpool passengers carpool strategy, proposed decision making method based on in-depth study of the passengers in different situations by choosing strategy, and introduces the prospect theory of evolutionary game, improved evolutionary game model is established, the passengers and the driver by using dynamic replication strategy game model, analyze the evolution mechanism. In order to get together by stable strategy. This method overcomes the strategic income completely rational evolutionary game model of the problem, considering both the limited rationality by main income judgment, taking into account the dynamic adjustment of limited rationality participants strategy. (5) studied by detour problem, put forward by bypass analysis methods. On the one hand, the game model between the bypass conditions of passengers carpool path establishment of prospect theory and evolutionary game theory based on the analysis of the factors of stable strategy game passenger route and its influence on the other; On the one hand, a bypass condition driver by strategy model, analysis of the driver by orbit evolution results of strategy, and introduce the complaint mechanism, further study the complaints mechanism under the driver by evolutionary stable strategy and its influence factors of tactics, the carpool system complaint mechanism can effectively prevent drivers behavior conclusion. By analysis method to study around the carpool passengers and drivers around when the limited rational behavior conditions, further analysis can ensure the smooth progress of the ride around. This paper from a new perspective of limited rationality of carpool behavior. This research established by effect model, and puts forward the method of analysis of a combined effect; based on Prospect Theory established by passenger behavior decision model, proposes a passenger carpool behavior analysis method; psychological theory The introduction of behavioral modeling, constructs the driver income equity model, provides a new idea for carpool behavior research; the first combination of prospect theory and evolutionary game theory, puts forward a method of evolutionary game based on the value of new prospects, make up the defects of completely rational income judgment evolutionary game model; construction of passengers and drivers the strategy evolution model, analyzed the stability strategy of both sides; and the establishment of the carpool passenger route game model and strategy model under the condition of the driver detour, devoted to the study of carpool detour problem, do improve the research work for carpool problem. The taxi to conduct an in-depth analysis, with the new from the perspective of research on the basic theory of a series of limited rationality under the condition of taxi behavior, the conclusions can be used as city taxi behavior and provide theoretical support for traffic carpool policy system It has important guiding significance.

【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224.32;F572

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