玉米进口来源国玉米生产潜力、潜力开发影响因素及贸易策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 04:23

  本文关键词：玉米进口来源国玉米生产潜力、潜力开发影响因素及贸易策略研究　出处：《南京农业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 玉米进口来源国 生产潜力 比较优势 境外农业资源利用 合作风险

【摘要】：粮食安全问题是关乎国计民生的重大战略问题。改革开放三十多年来,中国粮食生产取得了举世瞩目的成就,但是随着中国经济的进一步发展,中国粮食尤其是玉米的供需矛盾日渐突出。在保证“饭碗端在自己手里”的前提下,依靠国外玉米生产资源保障中国玉米供应越来越重要。与此同时,国际粮食市场风险越来越大,中国玉米进口将面临较大不确定性。未来如何建立稳定、可靠的进口粮源保障体系,确保玉米进口来源的稳定性和持续性,成为合理利用国外玉米生产资源的关键。为了确保中国玉米进口来源的稳定性和持续性,首先,应当弄清楚国外玉米生产资源的分布,测算不同国家的玉米生产出口潜力,确定利用国外玉米生产资源的目标区域。其次,利用境外农业资源的方式应当向产业链的上游延伸。发达国家跨国农业公司的经验表明:利用境外农业资源的方式越向产业链上游延伸,农产品进口的稳定性和持续性越好。因此利用境外农业资源的方式应当从产品贸易环节向农产品产业链的上游环节——运输环节、生产环节、产前环节延伸。为此就必须考察目标区域玉米运输、种植和产前环节的现状和特点,从而促进中国和目标区域国家在玉米产业链上游实现产业合作。同时注意考察目标区域的境外玉米生产资源利用有关的风险。在上述两点提供信息的基础上,对于不同的目标区域提出有针对性利用方式,从而保障中国能够持续、稳定地获取境外玉米供应。围绕上述目标,具体而言是回答以下问题:世界上哪些国家具有较大的玉米生产潜力,在未来可以持续稳定地满足中国的玉米进口需要,从而成为中国的玉米进口来源国?那些玉米生产有潜力的国家,它们的玉米生产有哪些重要的影响因素?玉米生产潜力开发制约性因素是什么?在玉米产业链的运输环节、生产环节、产前环节,有哪些不利因素制约着玉米生产潜力的开发?如果中国扩大从这些国家的玉米进口,中国能否根据自身的比较优势,实现玉米产业链中生产环节的合作?中国如果与这些国家开展玉米生产和贸易合作,合作的风险有哪些?围绕这些问题,本文对中国玉米进口来源国玉米生产潜力、潜力开发影响因素及贸易策略做系统研究,主要包括以下四方面的内容:研究内容一:中国玉米进口来源国的选择。首先在全球玉米净出口国中,选择拥有一定潜在耕地规模、玉米出口规模和对华玉米出口能力的国家,作为中国的潜在玉米进口来源国。然后计算潜在玉米进口来源国的玉米生产的外延式潜力和内涵式潜力,从潜在玉米进口来源国里选择其中玉米生产潜力较大的国家作为中国的玉米进口来源国。研究发现中国的玉米进口来源国是:阿根廷、巴西、法国、匈牙利、巴拉圭、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、南非、乌克兰和美国。玉米进口来源国玉米生产外延式潜力合计75184万吨,内涵式潜力为9014万吨。研究内容二:玉米进口来源国玉米生产影响因素分析。相对收益是影响玉米种植面积变化的主要因素。对玉米种植面积影响因素分析发现,小麦、大豆前一期价格上涨会导致当期玉米种植面积减小,小麦和大豆前一期国际价格提高1%,可使当期玉米种植面积分别减少0.191%和0.245%。前一期原油价格上涨会导致当期玉米种植面积扩大,前一期原油价格提高1%,可使当期玉米种植面积扩大0.083%。前一期玉米价格提高可以促进当期玉米种植面积扩大。长期玉米价格弹性除了匈牙利和罗马尼亚外均大于1,说明大多数国家玉米种植面积可以根据玉米价格变化做出调整。对玉米单产影响因素分析可知,技术进步、玉米新品种和化肥投入增加有助于玉米进口来源国玉米单产的提高。农机投入方面,阿根廷、巴拉圭、俄罗斯和南非单位面积拥有的农机数量较少。化肥投入方面,阿根廷、巴拉圭、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、南非和乌克兰单位面积使用量较小。化肥和农机投入的增加将有助于上述国家玉米单产的提高,促进玉米生产潜力的开发。阿根廷、巴西巴拉圭等国基础设施不足是制约玉米生产潜力开发的重要因素。研究内容三:中国与玉米进口来源国合作风险分析。玉米进口来源国罗马尼亚、匈牙利和俄罗斯生产稳定性差,玉米生产波动风险高。南半球国家巴西、阿根廷、巴拉圭和南非玉米收获时正是中国玉米“青黄不接”的时期,与这些国家合作能够很好地熨平中国玉米供给的波动。从投资政治风险来看,俄罗斯和乌克兰风险最高,阿根廷风险近年来持续提高。从粮食禁止出口风险来看,粮食进口可以分为口粮进口和饲料粮进口,多进口饲料粮不会过于影响粮食安全,且粮食出口国忌惮于失去大的粮食市场。越是加大进口的同时应当越重视国内口粮的生产,同时可以逐步开放玉米等饲料粮的进口,从而在粮食安全和比较优势之间找到平衡点。玉米进口来源国中,美国、法国和阿根廷玉米玉米出口稳定性在逐渐下降。巴西、法国、罗马尼亚、南非和乌克兰玉米出口行为属于“价差型出口”,国内外玉米价差有助于提高玉米出口产量比;原油价格上升会促使美国、法国和南非玉米出口产量比下降。研究内容四:中国与玉米进口来源国生产与贸易合作策略研究。研究发现,玉米进口来源国在玉米出口上具有比较优势,中国在氮肥、磷肥和复合肥出口上拥有比较优势。在氮肥出口上,中国与阿根廷、巴西、法国、匈牙利、南非和美国贸易空间较大;在磷肥出口上,中国与巴西、法国、巴拉圭、罗马尼亚和美国的贸易空间较大;在复合肥出口上,中国与阿根廷、巴西、法国、匈牙利、巴拉圭和乌克兰的贸易空间较大。中国通过向上述国家在相应化肥品种肥料上加大出口,能够有效满足各国化肥进口需要,促进玉米产量提高,并能够通过玉米生产合作,促进形成产业链一体化,增强玉米对华出口稳定性。根据以上研究内容,本文提出了创新国际玉米生产资源利用机制以及实施差别化的对外合作战略的政策建议,针对不同地区的玉米进口来源国玉米产业链各环节的不同特点,实施各有侧重的生产合作与贸易策略。
[Abstract]:The problem of food security is a major strategic issue related to the beneficial to the people's livelihood reform and opening up thirty years, Chinese grain production has made remarkable achievements, but with the further development of China economy, especially the contradiction between supply and demand of maize grain China have become increasingly prominent. In ensuring that the bowl in his hands under the premise of "rely on foreign corn production resources security China corn supply is becoming more and more important. At the same time, more and more international grain market risk, Chinese corn imports will face greater uncertainty in the future. How to establish a stable and reliable security system to ensure the stability of imported grain, corn imports sources and sustainability, become the key of rational use of production resources abroad. In order to ensure the stability of Chinese corn maize imports the source and persistence, first of all, should make clear the distribution of production resources overseas corn, estimates of different countries The corn production and export potential, determine the target area by using foreign corn production resources. Secondly, the use of overseas agricultural resources should be extended to the upper reaches of the industrial chain. The developed countries agricultural company's experience shows that using foreign agricultural resources more extended to the upstream industry chain, stability and continuity of the import of agricultural products better. Therefore the use of overseas agricultural resources should be upstream - transport links, links from the product trade link to the agricultural industrial chain production, prenatal link extension must be examined. Therefore the target area of corn transportation, the status and characteristics of planting and prenatal links, so as to promote the Chinese and target countries to achieve industrial cooperation in the upstream of the corn industry chain. Note that the study objectives of regional resource production overseas corn using relevant risk. Based on the information provided at the above two, For different target areas are put forward to use, so as to ensure the China can be sustained, stable access to overseas corn supply. On the above goals, specifically is to answer the following questions: the world which countries have the potential to produce corn is bigger, in the future can be sustained and stable to meet the needs China corn imports, thus becoming the country the source of China corn imports? Those countries have the potential of maize production, their corn production factors which influence? What factors restricting the development of maize production potential is? In transportation, corn industry chain production processes, prenatal links, are there any negative factors restricting the development of corn production potential if China? From these countries to expand imports of corn, Chinese can according to its own comparative advantage, realize the production of corn industry chain cooperation and China if this? Some countries to carry out cooperation in trade and production of corn, which have the cooperation risk? To solve these problems, the production potential of corn Chinese source of imports of corn, influence factors and development potential of trade policy system, mainly includes the following four aspects: research contents: a China corn import source country first choice. The global net corn exporters, choose to have a certain scale of potential arable land, corn export scale and export capacity of the country's corn, as potential sources of corn imports. China then calculate the corn production potential and extensive connotation of potential source of imports of corn, corn from the potential source of imports in the corn production potential larger countries as sources of imports of corn. The study found that China corn import source country China is: Argentina, Brazil, France, Hungary, Pakistan Uruguay, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine and the United States. The extension of maize production potential of corn import sources total 751 million 840 thousand tons, 90 million 140 thousand tons of connotative potential. Research content two: analysis of the factors affecting maize import source country corn production. The relative income is affected corn acreage change of main factors on corn planting area impact analysis showed that the previous period of wheat, soybean prices will lead to the corn planting area is reduced, the previous period of wheat and soybean international prices increased by 1%, the current corn acreage decreased before a period of 0.191% and 0.245%. crude oil prices will lead to the current corn acreage, a 1% increase in the price of crude oil that can make the current corn acreage before a 0.083%. corn price increase can promote the current corn acreage of corn. The long-term price elasticity in addition to Hungary Li and Romania are greater than 1, indicating that most of the national corn planting area can be adjusted according to the change of the price of corn. Corn yield factors influence analysis, technological progress, new varieties of maize and fertilizer contributes to the increase of maize yield of maize source of imports increased. Agricultural inputs, Argentina, Paraguay, Russia and South Africa unit the area has a smaller number. Agricultural fertilizer, Argentina, Paraguay, Romania, Russia, South Africa and Ukraine. A small amount of fertilizer use per unit area and the increase of agricultural inputs will help the country yield improvement, promote the development of corn production potential. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and other countries lack of infrastructure is important factors restricting the development and production potential of maize. Three research contents: analysis of Chinese cooperation risk and corn import source country corn imports. The source in Romania, Hungary and Russia production stability, corn production is high. The risk of fluctuations in the southern hemisphere countries of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and South Africa at the corn harvest is Chinese corn "lean" period, in cooperation with these countries can be well ironed flat in China's corn supply fluctuations. From the view of investment political risk, Russia Ukraine and Argentina in recent years the highest risk, the risk continues to increase. From the grain export ban risk, imported food can be divided into food and feed grain imports, imports of feed grain will not be too much impact on food security, and food exporters fear lost large grain market. The more increase at the same time should pay more attention to domestic and imported the rations production, while imports can gradually open corn and other feed grains, so as to find a balance between food security and comparative advantage. The sources of imports of corn Junior high school, the United States, France and Argentina corn export stability has gradually decreased. Brazil, France, Romania, South Africa and Ukraine corn export behavior belongs to the spread of export, domestic corn price is helpful to improve the yield of corn export ratio; crude oil prices rise will lead to the United States, France and South Africa export corn yield ratio decreased. Four research contents: Chinese and corn import source country production and trade cooperation strategies. The study found that corn import source country has a comparative advantage in the export of corn, China in nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilizer has a comparative advantage in export exports. N, Chinese and Argentina, Brazil, France, Hungary, South Africa and the United States a larger space in the fertilizer export trade; and Chinese, Brazil, France, Paraguay, Romania and the United States trade in large space; compound fertilizer exports, China and Argentina, Pakistan The west, France, Hungary, Paraguay and Ukraine. Chinese trade larger space through to these countries to increase exports in the corresponding fertilizer fertilizer, fertilizer import countries can meet the need for effective, promote corn production increased, and through the corn production cooperation, promote the formation of industrial chain integration, enhance the stability of corn exports to China according to the above research. The contents, this paper presents the mechanism of using the resources of production innovation and international cooperation strategy of International Maize and the implementation of differentiated policies, according to different characteristics of each link in different regions of the sources of imports of corn industry chain jade meters each, the implementation of cooperation and trade strategy focused on the production.

【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F316.11;F746
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本文编号：1408117