电网运营风险度量、预警与防控优化模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 14:34

本文关键词：电网运营风险度量、预警与防控优化模型研究　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电网企业不仅面临普通企业所共有的风险,而且由于电力经营的特殊性,使得电网企业还面临某些特有的风险和威胁。电力的供需要求实时平衡,电力不能大量经济的储存,各个环节瞬时一次性完成。这些特点使得电网企业在运营过程中面临诸多的不确定性。随着我国电力市场化改革的进行,电力企业从传统的一体化垄断经营,发售分离,使得电网企业成为独立的运作实体。电网企业运营面临着各种风险,电网企业与发电生产企业、电网企业以及电力用户之间都将进行交易。随着改革的不断深入,电网企业的经营和管理将面临更多的不确定性。本文运用风险管理理论和方法、最优化理论、系统工程理论与方法最新成果研究电网企业在节能、环保与市场化的环境下的电网企业风险系统辨识、评价与风险度量与优化控制模型。论文的主要研究内容如下：(1)介绍了电网运营风险管理的基本流程,主要包括五个环节,分别是电网运营风险识别、电网运营风险分析、电网运营风险度量、电网运营风险预警和电网运营风险防控,为后续章节的研究奠定了理论基础。(2)建立了电网运营风险关系分析模型。首先,引入系统识别风险的思想和方法构建电网企业风险的多维度风险识别模型。然后,将经典解释结构模型扩展至模糊集,构建了电网运营风险链接关系分析度模型。最后,通过实例分析验证了模型的有效性和适用性,并确定了电网运营风险因素间的多元链接关系。(3)建立了电网运营风险度量模型。从购电侧、输配电侧、售电侧三个环节,分别构建了电网省内外购电风险度量分析模型、大用户直购电交易风险度量模型和电网售电风险度量分析模型,并通过实例分析验证了模型的有效性和适用性,确定了影响电网企业风险的关键性因素,反映了运营风险因素与效益实际情况,为管控电网稳定运营提供了良好的决策工具。(4)建立了电网运营风险预警模型,具体包括电网运营风险预警分级设计模型、电网运营风险指标阈值设计模型和电网运营广义回归神经模型。首先,介绍了风险预警的基本概念、分级方法,建立了电网运营风险预警系统；然后,引入层次分析法确定风险指标权重,建立了风险指标阈值设计模型；最后,应用广义回归神经模型,构建了电网运营风险预警模型。(5)建立了电网运营风险防控优化模型,主要包括电网组合购电风险防控优化模型、电网企业备用容量风险优化模型、电网售电风险防控优化模型和电网风险防控综合优化模型四个方面,通过实例分析验证了模型的有效性和适用性,为电网运营风险多方面防控提供了决策依据。
[Abstract]:Grid enterprises not only face the risks common to ordinary enterprises, but also face some unique risks and threats due to the particularity of electricity management. The demand and supply of power demand needs to be balanced in real time. Electricity can not be stored in a large amount of economy, and every link can be completed at one time. These characteristics make power grid enterprises face a lot of uncertainties in the process of operation. With the development of power market reform in China. Electric power enterprises are separated from traditional integrated monopoly and sale, which makes grid enterprises become independent operation entities. Power grid enterprises are faced with various risks, power grid enterprises and power generation production enterprises. With the deepening of the reform, the management and management of power grid enterprises will face more uncertainty. This paper applies the theory and method of risk management, optimization theory. The latest achievements of system Engineering Theory and method Research on Power Grid Enterprise risk Identification in the Environment of Energy Saving, Environmental Protection and marketization. Evaluation and risk measurement and optimal control model. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1) the basic process of grid operational risk management is introduced, which mainly includes five links, namely grid operational risk identification. Network operation risk analysis, network operation risk measurement, network operation risk warning and grid operation risk prevention and control. For the subsequent chapter of the study laid a theoretical foundation. 2) established the grid operation risk relationship analysis model. First of all. The idea and method of system risk identification are introduced to construct the multi-dimensional risk identification model of power grid enterprise risk. Then, the classical explanatory structure model is extended to fuzzy set. Finally, the validity and applicability of the model are verified by an example. And determined the multiple link relationship among the network operation risk factors. 3) established the network operation risk measurement model. From the purchase side, transmission and distribution side, the sale side three links. The risk measurement model of power purchase in and out of the power grid, the risk measurement model of direct purchase of electricity for large users and the risk measurement model of electricity sale in power grid are constructed, respectively. The validity and applicability of the model are verified by an example. The key factors affecting the risk of power grid enterprises are determined, which reflect the operational risk factors and the actual situation of benefits. It provides a good decision tool for the stable operation of the power grid. It establishes the early warning model of power network operation risk, including the design model of network operation risk warning and classification. The threshold design model of power network operation risk index and the generalized regression neural model of power network operation. Firstly, the basic concept and classification method of risk early warning are introduced, and the network operation risk early warning system is established. Then, the AHP is introduced to determine the weight of the risk index, and the threshold design model of the risk index is established. Finally, the generalized regression neural model is used to construct the early warning model of power network operation risk. (5) the optimization model of network operation risk prevention and control is established, which mainly includes the optimization model of power grid combination purchase risk prevention and control. The risk optimization model of reserve capacity of power grid enterprise, the optimization model of power network sale risk prevention and control and the comprehensive optimization model of power network risk prevention and control are four aspects. The validity and applicability of the model are verified by an example. It provides decision basis for power network operation risk prevention and control in many aspects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.61

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