市民化对经济增长的机理研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 02:09

  本文关键词：市民化对经济增长的机理研究　出处：《东北财经大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 农业转移人口 市民化 CGE模型 经济增长

【摘要】：自从改革开放以来,随着我国经济的不断发展与城镇化的不断推进,有越来越多的农村剩余劳动人口开始进入城镇务工,从事非农业生产劳动,形成了一个特殊的农民工群体。他们为我国经济发展、城镇建设与社会进步做出了重要的贡献,并且已经成为我国经济建设中不可或缺的重要劳动力组成部分。但是就目前农业转移人口的生活和发展状态来看,虽然他们在城镇中工作、生活和发展,并且在人口统计中也被认为是城镇人口,但是绝大部分农业转移人口都无法获得城镇户籍,享受到城镇人口的待遇。即使有部分农民工获得城镇户籍,但是他们的生活方式、消费观念、享受到的社会福利等都和真正意义上的城镇人口有明显的差距。农业转移人口市民化水平不高,市民化不完全,使得我国的城镇化实质是较低水平的城镇化。纵观世界上各个发达国家的发展历史,市民化过程是城市和国家发展过程中不可或缺的环节,同时市民化水平也可以看做是其现代化程度的重要标准之一。从西方发达国家的发展历史上来看,其农业人口非农化与市民化是伴随着城市化和工业化的过程同步进行的,随着工业化程度的不断提升,城市规模不断扩张,在这个过程中农村劳动人口逐渐脱离农业生产进入城市定居,完成了生活方式和身份的转变。因此西方国家中农村劳动力向城市转移与市民化的过程是同步进行的。而我国的现状比较特殊,农村劳动人口转变为城市人口的过程被明显的划分为两个过程,第一个过程是农村劳动人口进入城市从事非农业生产劳动,并且定居在城市,但是仅仅完成职业的转变,没有完成身份和生活方式的转变,他们与农村还存在千丝万缕的联系。第二个过程是转移出来的劳动力在城市中立足,其生活方式逐渐转化成城市人口的生活方式,并且获得城市人口身份,这样才完成了整个转化的过程。正是因为我国农村劳动力转移过程中存在的特殊性,造成了一部分人口已经从农村中转移到城市,但是无法完全融入城市生活,没有获得城市人口的身份,就形成了目前社会中的一个特殊群体——农业转移人口,该人群数量庞大,分布在城市的各个行业中,其生活状态与发展前景已经成为社会关注的焦点之一。农业转移人口市民化对我国经济的发展会产生何种影响,其影响的原理和作用方式是什么,推动农业转移人口市民化会对我国经济发展起到怎么样的作用,如何完善政策以推动我国市民化进程。现有的研究对这几个问题的涉及相对较少,仅有的研究大多从宏观经济的角度阐述了市民化与经济发展之间的关联关系,或是缺少深入研究,没有达到阐明市民化对经济产生影响的原因以及作用机理的层次；或是仅使用定性分析和理论研究,没有使用定量分析的方法和数学模型进行推导,也不能全面有效的回答这些问题。因此在本文中,根据经济增长理论,使用CGE模型为主要分析工具,使用理论推导和仿真研究两种研究手段,就农业转移人口市民化对经济发展的所产生的影响以及作用机理进行研究,并在此基础上提出促进我国市民化进程的一些建议和思路。本研究主要取得了以下一些研究成果：首先,综合相关研究成果,对在研究中涉及到的一些概念如经济增长、市民化、城镇化、人力资本、居民消费等方面的概念进行阐述。其中重点对市民化的定义进行了研究,在本文中认为完全的市民化有四个条件,分别是在城市中居住、在城市中就业、拥有城市户籍以及拥有城市人口的生活方式。并研究了市民化对城镇化、居民消费以及人力资本三个方面的影响,从目前已有的研究成果来看,市民化可以有效促进城市规模的扩大,加速城镇化进程,也可以明显拉动居民平均消费增长,并且可以提升整个社会的人力资本水平。同时也研究了城镇化、居民消费水平以及人力资本水平对经济发展的影响,现有的研究成果已经表明,城镇化水平的提高、居民消费水平的上升以及人力资本水平提升都对经济发展产生明显的促进作用。这部分研究工作主要总结了前人研究成果,厘清相关概念,为后续的研究奠定了坚实的理论基础。其次,根据经济增长理论,使用CGE模型,从理论角度就人力资本对经济发展的影响进行推理。该部分研究从CGE模型的一般形态着手,分析了CGE模型中的常用概念,包括初始禀值、社会收支矩阵等,也阐述了CGE模型方程的组成。再通过构建方程的方式就市民化对经济产生的影响进行推导,从生产模块、居民行为、政府行为角度着手,对实际经济发展中的重点进行抽象,形成方程组。后续的研究重点从理论角度推导了市民化对城镇化、居民消费、人力资本以及经济总量产生的影响。通过公式推导和理论证明,发现市民化对城镇化、居民消费水平以及社会整体的人力资本水平的提升都有促进作用。在本部分的研究中从理论的角度论证了市民化对我国经济有促进作用。接着,利用已经建立起来的CGE模型,对我国现有的经济运行状态进行建模,对生产模块、贸易模块均衡模块等进行细分,对模型中涉及到的参数进行合理赋值,使用我国经济实际发展的统计数据对模型中的需要的变量进行赋值,构建了我国社会核算矩阵,生成了可供仿真用的模型。然后使用模型就市民化对我国经济发展的影响进行了仿真研究。在仿真中设计了四个仿真场景,分别为完全没有市民化、2%的市民化比例并且该部分人口市民化程度不完全、2%的市民化比例并且该部分人口完全市民化、以及4%的市民化比例,以此来比较市民化、完全市民化以及市民化比例不同对经济发展产生的影响。仿真研究分为静态仿真和动态仿真两个部分,静态仿真研究了经济的某个方面到2020年时的状态,动态仿真研究了每年经济发展的趋势和变化。通过研究证实,市民化对城镇化、居民消费、人力资本以及经济总量都有明显的促进作用,并且市民化程度越高,市民化越完全,促进作用越明显。最后,基于我国城乡二元经济发展状况和现有住房、教育、社会保障等政策的现状,提出了完善推动我国市民化的政策建议,从户籍、收入、土地、教育等多个方面进行了阐述。就户籍政策来说,从现有户籍制度以及户籍制度改革现状着手,建议明确户籍改革目标,并且强化户籍对人口流动的管理功能,而削弱附加在户籍上的其他公共资源分配。就收入分配政策来说,建议提高按劳分配在初次分配中的比例,同时为农村劳动力提供公平的公共服务,以提升其在就业市场上的竞争力。就土地政策来说,重点要建立起健全的土地流转制度,保证农村劳动人口迁移到城市后可以妥善处置所拥有的土地,维护自身经济利益的同时也可以有效提升土地的利用效率。就教育政策来说,建议将农村地区的教学质量提升作为未来教育工作的重点,一方面为农村留守儿童提供足够优质的教育,另一方面为农村劳动力提供技术培训以提升其劳动技能。就社会保障政策来说,建议建立起保障农村转移人口相关制度,以及完全现有的社会保障政策,使得农村转移人口可以享受到应有的社会保障。就就业政策来说,建议建立起完善的就业相关政策体系,协调劳动力市场上的供求关系,打破城乡二元化的劳动力市场,让农业转移人口可以和城市人口享受同样的就业机会。就住房政策来说,提出了政府提供一定规模的廉租房和经济适用房,扩大公积金覆盖面和影响面,企业用人单位合力解决员工住房问题,农村转移人口将农村土地置换为城市住房等建议,都可以作为解决农业转移人口在城镇中住房问题的解决方案。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the continuous development of China's economy and urban change steadily, more and more rural surplus labor force began to enter the urban workers engaged in agricultural production, the formation of a special group of migrant workers. They are China's economic development has made important contributions to urban construction and society progress, and has become an important force in the economic development of our country an indispensable part. But at present, the transfer of agricultural population life and development of the state, although they work in the town, living and development, and in population statistics is also considered the urban population, but most are unable to get the urban agricultural population transfer the household registration, enjoy the treatment of urban population. Even though some migrant workers get the urban household registration, but their way of life, the concept of consumption, enjoy the social welfare And all the true meaning of the urban population has a significant gap. The transfer of the agricultural population urbanization level is not high, the public is not complete, the essence of urbanization in China is relatively low level of urbanization. Throughout the history of development of world each developed country, urbanization process is an indispensable part of city and country development in the process, at the same time, the level of urbanization can also be seen as one of the important standards of the degree of modernization. From the historical development of western developed countries on the point of view, the agricultural population to non-agricultural population and urbanization is accompanied by the process of city modernization and industrialization simultaneously, with the continuous improvement of the degree of industrialization, in the continuous expansion of city size. In the process of rural labor force gradually from the agricultural production into the city settled, completed the change of life style and identity in western countries. Therefore the rural labor transfer to the city and The process of urbanization is synchronous. And the current situation of our country is special, the rural working population into the city population is obviously divided into two processes, the first is the rural labor population into the city engaged in agricultural production and labor, and settled in the city, but only completed the occupation change, no change complete identity and way of life, and they are inextricably linked. The second processes are transferred out of the labor force based in the city, whose way of life is gradually transformed into the city population and city life style, population identity, so as to complete the whole process of transformation. Because of the particularity of transfer China's rural labor force in the process, resulting in a part of the population has shifted from the countryside to the city, but can not be fully integrated into the city life, not to get the city population The identity on the formation of the current society in a special group, the transfer of agricultural population, the huge number of people, in various sectors of the city, the living conditions and development prospects has become one of the focus of attention of the society. The transfer of agricultural population of people on the development of China's economy will be affected, what is the influence of the principle and mode of action, to promote the transfer of agricultural population of people to what role in China's economic development, how to perfect the policies to promote the process of urbanization in China. The existing research on these problems involved is relatively small, only research mostly from a macro perspective of the economic relationship between people with economic development, or is the lack of in-depth research, not to explain the reasons for the public impact on the economy and the level of mechanism; or using only the set of points Analysis and theoretical research methods and mathematical models without the use of quantitative analysis is not comprehensive and effective to answer these questions. In this paper, according to the theory of economic growth, using the CGE model as the main analysis tool, using two methods of theoretical analysis and simulation research, study on the transfer of the agricultural population of people of the impact of economic development and the mechanism of action, and puts forward some suggestions and ideas to promote China's urbanization process. This paper has obtained some results as following: first, the comprehensive research results, in the study relates to some concepts such as economic growth, urbanization, urbanization human capital, elaborates the concept, consumption and other aspects. The definition focuses on the public were studied in this paper that the complete people have four conditions, divided Don't live in the city, employment in the city, with city residence and life style has the population of the city. And to study the urbanization of urbanization, the impact of consumption and human capital in three aspects, from the existing research results, the public can effectively promote the expansion of the city, accelerate town the process can also significantly promote household average consumption growth, and can promote the whole society's level of human capital. At the same time, urbanization is studied, the consumption level of residents as well as the influence of human capital on economic development, the existing research results have shown that the improvement of the level of urbanization, consumption level and higher level of human capital enhance have obvious effect on promoting the economic development. The research work mainly summarizes the previous research results, clarify concepts, for follow-up research lay A solid theoretical basis. Secondly, according to the theory of economic growth, using the CGE model, reasoning on the influence of human capital on economic development from the theoretical point of view. This part of research from the general form of the CGE model to analysis the common concepts in the CGE model, including the initial intrinsic value, social balance matrix, also elaborated the composition of CGE model equations. By the way of the public construction equation influences on economy are derived from the production module, the behavior of the residents, government behavior perspective, to abstract the actual focus of economic development, the formation of equations. The following study is urbanization of urbanization, consumption from the theoretical point of view, the impact of human capital and economy produced. Through formula derivation and theoretical proof, it is found that people of urbanization, consumption level and overall social human capital level Enhance have stimulative effect. In this part of study, from the perspective of theory demonstrates that urbanization has a promoting effect on the economy of our country. Then, using the CGE model has been established, to model the state of the economy of our country of production module, module module of trade balance segments, reasonable the assignment of the model parameters related to the assignment of the needs of the variables in the model for statistical data using the actual development of China's economy, the construction of China's social accounting matrix, generated for simulation model. Then use the model of the impact of China's economic development has carried on the simulation research in public. The simulation design of the four simulation scenarios, respectively, no people, 2% people of the proportion and degree of the population urbanization is not complete, the public and the ratio of 2% of the population of complete city people, to The public and the ratio of 4%, in order to compare the effects of urbanization, urbanization and urbanization completely different proportion of economic development. The simulation research is divided into two parts: static simulation and dynamic simulation, static simulation of certain aspects of the economy by 2020 of the state, the dynamic simulation of the trend and change every year economic development. Through the study confirmed that the urbanization of urbanization, consumption, human capital and economy have obvious promoting effect, and the higher the degree of urbanization, urbanization is more complete, the effect is more obvious. The education situation in China, the urban and rural economic development and the existing housing two yuan, based on the status quo of social security policy, put forward to improve and promote China's public policy recommendations from the household, income, land, many aspects of education are described. The household registration policy, from the existing household registration system and To reform the household registration system present situation, proposed targeted household registration reform, and strengthen the household registration management function of the floating population, and weaken the other distribution of public resources in the household. Additional income distribution policy, suggestions for the improvement of distribution according to work in the initial distribution proportion, while providing a fair public service for the rural labor force, to improve the competition in the job market. The land policy, the key to establish a sound system of land circulation, ensure rural labor migration to the city to properly dispose of the land they have, to safeguard their own economic interests also can effectively improve the land use efficiency. The suggestions on the education policy, the quality of teaching in rural in ascension as the focus of education in the future, on the one hand, provide adequate quality education for rural left-behind children, on the other hand, the rural labor force Provide technical training to enhance their work skills. Social security policy recommendations, established to protect the rural population transfer system, and perfect the existing social security policy, the transfer of rural population can enjoy social security. It is suggested to establish the employment policy, employment policy system, the coordination of labor market the relationship between supply and demand, breaking the two yuan in urban and rural areas of the labor market, allow the transfer of agricultural population and city population can enjoy the same employment opportunities. The housing policy, the government proposed to provide a certain amount of low rent housing and affordable housing provident fund, expand the coverage and influence, employers work together to solve the housing problems of employees. The transfer of rural population to rural land replacement for city housing, can be used to resolve the transfer of the agricultural population living in towns in the real problem The solution.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F124.1;F323.6
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本文编号：1426308