考虑不同消费者行为的生产与订货决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 09:34

本文关键词：考虑不同消费者行为的生产与订货决策研究　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：消费者行为在制造商的生产决策和零售商的订货决策中常常扮演着重要角色。随着环境污染日益严重,消费者在购物时会表现出越来越高的环保意识行为,这会影响制造商的生产决策。此外,由于缺货现象普遍发生,消费者对零售商的服务水平越来越敏感。同时,网上购物时存在的不确定性会使得消费者表现出谨慎购买的行为。消费者的这些行为都会直接对零售商的订货决策和利益产生影响。在本文中,基于消费者对环境、服务和不确定性表现出的行为,将其分为三个部分进行研究。首先,考虑消费者环保意识行为的绿色生产研究。制造商提供不同绿色等级的产品来满足市场上不同环保偏好的消费者。更高绿色等级的产品会产生更少的排放物但需要更多的成本。为了鼓励制造商生产环保产品,政府对其提供绿色补贴政策。本章主要研究制造商的绿色生产决策问题,即生产哪些绿色等级的产品以及相应生产多少数量。考虑消费者具有环保意识行为和政府补贴,本章在竞争的环境下发展了一个绿色供应链模型来最大化制造商的利润。本章证明了均衡解的存在性和唯一性,并且根据变分不等式理论提出了一个收敛算法。基于现实场景下的算例结果显示:消费者环保意识的提高将会促进制造商生产更多高绿色等级的产品,但这并不一定为制造商带来更多利润。一个好的补贴政策能为制造商带来更多利润,也为政府节约补贴投资。此外,随着消费者环保意识以及补贴政策的变化,在竞争越来越激烈的环境下制造商可能会创造更多利益。其次,考虑消费者好感度的最小承诺订货决策。零售商不断地提供产品来满足消费者需求。消费者会基于过去零售商所提供的服务质量对其产生不同的好感度。消费者的好感度会随着零售商的服务水平的不同不断变化,并且影响着未来需求。此外,零售商需要向供应商进行订货并且双方形成一个最小订货量承诺。本章在多期的环境下研究零售商的承诺订货问题,其目标是利润最大化。本章发展一个随机的动态规划模型,并且在考虑消费者好感度的条件下使用鲁棒优化的方法来求解该模型。本章发现零售商的长期利润随着最小承诺量和消费者好感度的上升而上升。消费者好感度将会随着时间收敛到一个稳定值,并且该值会随着最小承诺量的上升而下降。最后,考虑消费者谨慎购买行为的最优订货问题。网上销售已成为零售商的一个重要渠道。消费者购买前对产品的初始估值与购买后对产品的实际估值之间存在估值偏差,并且该偏差可能会导致消费者退货。在网上购物中,缺货现象普遍存在,这使得消费者在购物时会变得更加谨慎。所以,消费者购买产品前常常会评估估值偏差以及产品的供应水平。本章主要研究零售商的订货决策问题,即在消费者谨慎购买的行为下如何确定最优订货量。本章考虑了消费者对产品供应水平的感知是外生的情形。分析结果显示市场需求和消费者的退货率都随着消费者对产品供应水平的感知上升而上升。当消费者表现出谨慎的购买行为时,零售商应当采取措施来提高消费者对产品供应水平的感知。此外,本章还考虑了消费者对产品供应水平的感知是内生的情形。算例结果显示消费者对产品供应水平的感知以及退货率将随着订货量的上升而上升。本章也发现无论消费者对产品供应水平的感知是内生还是外生的,感知越高,零售商的利润越低。
[Abstract]:Consumer behavior in the manufacturer's production order decision making and retailers often play an important role. With the increasingly serious environmental pollution, consumers will show higher awareness of environmental protection behavior when shopping, this will affect the manufacturer's production decision. In addition, due to out of stock phenomenon, consumers on the retailer's service level is more and more sensitive. At the same time, there are online shopping when uncertainty makes consumers buy a cautious consumer behavior. These behaviors can directly to the retailer's order strategy and profit impact. In this paper, the consumer environment based on service and uncertainty behaviors will be studied, which is divided into three parts. First, Research on green production considering the environmental consciousness of consumers behavior. Manufacturers provide different products to meet different levels of green ring on the market Paul preferences of consumers. The higher level of emissions of green products will produce less but need more cost. In order to encourage manufacturers to produce environmentally friendly products, the government provides green subsidy policy on it. This chapter mainly studies the manufacturer of green production decision, namely production which green grade products and the corresponding production quantity is considered. Consumers are environmentally conscious behavior and government subsidies, this chapter in a competitive environment to develop a green supply chain model to maximize the profits of the manufacturer. This chapter proves the existence and uniqueness of solutions for equilibrium, and according to the variational inequality theory presents a convergence algorithm. Examples of real scenes the results show: based on consumer awareness of environmental protection will promote manufacturers to produce more high grade green products, but this does not necessarily bring more profits for the manufacturer of a good. The subsidy policy can bring more profits for the manufacturer, but also save subsidies for government investment. In addition, with changes in consumer awareness of environmental protection and subsidy policy, in an increasingly competitive environment manufacturers may create more benefits. Secondly, the minimum commitment ordering decision consumer favorability consideration. Retailers continue to provide products to meet the needs of consumers the consumer will demand. In the past the quality of service provided by retailers to produce different favorability. Based on the goodwill of consumers with different degrees of changing service level of retailer, and affect the future demand. In addition, retailers need to order and the two sides form a minimum quantity commitment to suppliers. Commitment ordering problem in this chapter in the period of the study of retailers, the goal is to maximize profit. This chapter develops a stochastic dynamic programming model Type, and considering the method of robust optimization using consumer favorability conditions to solve the model. This chapter found that long-term profits of retailers increased with minimal commitment amount and rising consumer favorability. Consumer favorability over time will converge to a stable value, and the value will decrease with the increase of minimum commitment the optimal ordering problem. Finally, cautious consumer purchase behavior. Online sales has become an important channel for retailers. Consumer products on the initial valuation and purchase of products between the actual valuation valuation bias, and the bias may lead to the return of consumers in online shopping. In common out of stock phenomenon, which makes consumers when shopping will become more cautious. So, often valuation deviation and product supply water consumers to buy the product before Ping. Order decision of this chapter is mainly on the retailer, namely in the cautious consumer purchase behavior to determine the optimal order quantity. This chapter considers the consumer perception of product supply level is exogenous. Analysis results show that the market demand and consumer return rate with the consumer perception of product supply level rise rise. When consumers are expressing cautious purchasing behavior, retailers should take measures to improve the consumers' perception of product supply level. In addition, this chapter also considers consumer perception of product supply is endogenous. The results of example show that the consumer perception of product supply level and the return rate will rise along with order quantity. This chapter also found that consumers of the product supply level of perception is endogenous or exogenous, perception is higher, the retailer's profit is low.

【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274;F713.55

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