污染产业转移对我国中西部地区经济发展和居民健康影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 10:43

本文关键词：污染产业转移对我国中西部地区经济发展和居民健康影响研究　出处：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济发展过程中,承接污染产业转移在为地方经济发展带来机遇的同时,也附带产生了一系列环境污染、生态失衡等问题,并给承接地居民健康带来了潜在风险。当前随着我国东部及沿海长三角、珠三角等发达地区环境规制的增强以及劳动力成本的攀升,大量污染型产业开始逐步转移到广大中西部地区。由于中西部地区生态系统相对脆弱,受经济发展水平的限制,生态环境一旦损伤则短期较难恢复,并且环境污染所产生的健康问题也可能直接影响该区域内居民的基本生活质量。鉴于此,为提升中西部地区对承接污染产业的合理认知和价值判断,进而准确识别承接污染产业的经济效应与健康风险,本文在充分吸纳和借鉴国内外相关研究成果的基础上,围绕中西部地区承接污染产业转移与居民健康问题,着重探讨了四个方面的内容:首先是当前我国区域污染转移的格局及发展趋势;其次是污染产业转移对于中西部承接地区的经济效应;最后从微观和宏观角度,分别考察了现阶段污染产业转移对于中西部居民个体健康和健康支出的影响。论文主要研究工作及相关结论如下:(1)我国区域污染转移的特征及其变动趋势。本文基于省域层面的工业二氧化硫排放数据,利用泰尔指数差异分解法对我国东、中、西三个区域的污染排放强度进行测度,并对区域污染排放的差异化趋势和转移特征进行分析。研究发现,我国区域污染排放差异主要表现为以中、东部为主的区域内差异,西部地区的内部差异正在迅速拉大,污染转移整体呈现出向中西部内迁的趋势。结合环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论,针对普通面板门槛回归并不能精准反映出变量系数的平滑转移趋势问题,本文利用面板平滑转换模型分析,得出了各省区的污染排放强度随收入增长而整体呈现出一种拖尾式倒“U”型发展趋势的结论,且在人均GDP相对较低和较高区域分别存在1.22万元与4.27万元两个收入排放阈值点。针对污染排放阈值格局以及象限分布的研究表明,以中西部省份为主的多数人均GDP相对较低省份正处于污染排放的高峰期,尤其是污染转移趋势较为明显的西北和西南部分区域,需要重点加强监控和治理。(2)污染产业转移对于中西部地区的经济效应研究。由于污染产业转移对区域经济、环境的影响均是一个动态过程,因此不同于一般研究中对于污染转移总量效果的评价,本文利用时变参数向量自回归模型,从动态冲击的角度考察污染产业转移对承接地区经济的动态影响。研究表明,污染产业在转移初期对承接地区经济增长、就业以及居民收入均存在较为显著的正向影响,而后在经历短期反向波动后逐步趋于平稳,因此污染产业转移对于承接地区的经济拉动主要表现为短期效应。进一步的结构性冲击差异分析显示,当经济处于衰退初期时,除对就业的短期拉升相对较弱外,污染产业的转移促进了中西部承接地区的经济增长和居民收入水平的提升。但在“新常态”阶段的经济转型期,污染产业转移对于中西部经济发展的短期拉升作用总体相对较为温和。(3)污染产业转移对于中西部地区居民个体健康的影响分析。在对中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)微观调研数据系统分析的基础上,本文选用有序Probit模型,从受访者的当期自评健康和追访期健康变动两个方面,对中西部污染产业承接地区居民的个体健康状况进行静态和动态考察。研究表明,当前整体上我国多数居民的自评健康处于中等偏下水平,其中中西部地区健康水平的恶化趋势相对快于全国平均水平;而从动态变动角度看,虽然污染产业转移在趋势上增加了中西部居民的患病风险,但尚未达到显著增加患病的临界水平。进一步的分组对照研究显示,相比于中西部地区的普通居民,非农户口群体、55-74岁间的中老年人,以及收入相对较低的群体最易收到污染产业转移冲击的影响,因此,政府在实施产业承接过程中应重点加强对于上述人群的关注。(4)污染产业转移对于中西部居民健康支出的影响研究。本文利用行业污染物排放密度评价指数研究我国中、西部地区污染密集型产业的变动趋势,并结合地理位置权重的空间计量模型,分析了污染产业转移对中西部居民健康支出的影响。结论表明,现阶段我国污染密集型产业总体上主要集中于东部地区,但从转移趋势看,中部地区对于污染密集型产业的承接增速明显快于西部地区。从结构分析过程看,当前污染密集型产业承接对于中西部区域居民的健康支出具有显著影响,且污染产业承接的收入增长效应大于污染所造成的健康支出效应,因此整体上污染产业承接有效地提升了中西部居民的总量收入水平。在区域比较方面,中部地区对污染密集型产业承接的经济增长效应显著大于污染所带来的健康支出效应,但在西部地区,这种产业转移对于健康支出的影响并不显著,这与西部地区经济基础较为薄弱、地缘劣势较为明显所导致的承接企业数量及质量均显著落后于中部地区有关。客观地评估污染产业转移对经济发展以及居民健康的影响,是现阶段我国中西部地区科学合理地制定产业承接政策、维护区域生态均衡和居民健康的重要保障。基于静态评估与动态分析等多维视角,本文研究验证了当前我国污染产业呈现整体向中西部转移的趋势,这种转移不仅体现为污染转移总量攀升,而且转移的差异化扩散趋势也较为明显。污染产业的承接虽然为中西部地区的经济发展带来机遇,但实证分析也表明这种促进作用较为短暂且不可持续。而后实证发现,虽然现阶段中西部污染产业承接地区居民的患病率并未显著提升,但居民感觉个体健康变差的概率有显著上升趋势。可见,虽然现阶段中西部地区的污染产业承接的收入增长效应大于污染所造成的健康支出效应,但潜在的承接地居民健康恶化风险必须及时引起关注。这既需要中西部地区加强对污染的源头控制和末端治理,同时也要利用环境危害评估及生态补偿与修复等措施,将污染产业承接的居民健康风险降至最低。
[Abstract]:In the process of economic development, to undertake the transfer of industrial pollution brings the opportunities for local economic development at the same time, it has also produced a series of environmental pollution, ecological imbalance and other issues, and to undertake the health of the residents of potential risk. With the current Eastern and coastal Yangtze River Delta of China, strengthen environmental regulation in developed areas in the Pearl River Delta and the rise labor costs, a large number of polluting industries began to gradually shift to the central and western regions. Because the ecological system of the central and western regions is relatively fragile, limited by the level of economic development, ecological environment damage is difficult to recover once the short-term, health problems and the resulting environmental pollution may also directly affect the basic quality of life of the residents in the region. In view of this in order to improve the central and western regions, to undertake industrial pollution, rational cognition and value judgment, and accurately identify the economic effects of industrial pollution, undertake In this paper, and the health risk, fully absorb and based on the relevant research results at home and abroad, focusing on the transfer of polluting industries and residents health problems in Midwest, focusing on four aspects: the first part is the current situation and development trend of regional pollution transfer in China; second is the transfer of polluting industries for the Midwest undertake economic effect in the end; from the micro and macro perspectives, respectively analyzes the transfer of industrial pollution impact on individual health and health expenditure in the Midwest. The main research work and conclusions are as follows: (1) the characteristics and trend of regional pollution in China. In this paper, industrial sulfur dioxide emissions data at provincial level based on in the East China, using Theil index decomposition method, measure the pollution intensity of the West three regions, and the regional differences on the discharge of pollution The trend and transfer characteristics were analyzed. The study found that the difference of regional pollution emissions in China is mainly in the eastern region, the main differences, internal differences in the western region is rapidly widening, showing the whole pollution transfer to the Midwest migration trend. Combined with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory for ordinary panel threshold return and can not accurately reflect the trend of transfer coefficient variable smoothing problem, this paper uses the panel smooth transition model analysis, the regional pollution emission intensity with revenue growth overall showing a trail type inverted "U" type development trend and conclusions, the per capita GDP is relatively low and high area respectively. 12 thousand and 200 yuan and 42 thousand and 700 yuan two income threshold. According to the emission of pollution emissions and distribution pattern of threshold quadrant shows that most of the per capita GDP in central and western provinces as opposed Low pollution emission peak is in the provinces, especially the pollution transfer more obvious trend of the northwest and southwest part of the region, the need to focus on strengthening the monitoring and management. (2) the transfer of polluting industries for the study of economic effect in the central and western regions. Because of the transfer of polluting industries on the regional economy, the environmental impact is a dynamic process, therefore different from the pollution transfer of total effect evaluation of the general study, this paper uses time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model, from the perspective of dynamic impact angle dynamic effect on the transfer of polluting industries to undertake the region economy. The study showed that the pollution of industry in the early shift to undertake regional economic growth, employment and income have significant positive influence then, after short-term reverse fluctuations after gradually stabilized, so the transfer of polluting industries to undertake the region's economic pull the main performance As a short-term effect. Analysis of the structural impact of differences further showed that when the economy is in a recession early, in addition to try for the short-term relatively weak employment, promote the transfer of industrial pollution in the Midwest to undertake the region's economic growth and the upgrading of the level of income. But during the period of economic transformation in the "new normal" stage, the transfer of polluting industries for the economic development of the Midwest to try for the short-term overall relatively mild. (3) analysis of the effects of individual health residents in central and western regions transfer of industrial pollution. In the investigation of China health and pension (CHARLS) based on analysis of the micro survey data on the system, this paper selects the ordered Probit model from the respondent's current self rated health and follow up health changes in two aspects of industrial pollution Midwest undertake the health status of individual residents of the static and dynamic study. The study shows that the current Self rated health in the middle and lower overall level of the majority of our residents, the deterioration of health level of the central and western regions is relatively faster than the national average; from the dynamic point of view, although the transfer of industrial pollution and increase the risk of illness in the Midwest trend, but has not yet reached the critical level significantly increased prevalence of research. Then the control group, compared to the central and western regions of the general population, non-agricultural household population, aged 55-74 in the elderly, and the relatively low income groups are most easily affected, so the impact of pollution industry transfer, the government should focus on strengthening the crowd's attention in the implementation of industrial process (4). The effect of health expenditure Midwest research of pollution industry transfer. China Index Research of pollutant emission density evaluation industry in this paper, the western region pollution intensive The change trend of industry, and combined with the spatial econometric model location weights, analysis of pollution industry transfer effects on health expenditure. The conclusion shows that the Midwest, at this stage of China's pollution intensive industry as a whole is mainly concentrated in the eastern region, but the transfer from the trend, the central region for pollution intensive industries to undertake growth faster than the western region. The analysis process from the perspective of structure, the current pollution intensive industrial undertaking has significant impact on the Midwest area residents health expenditure, health expenditure growth and the effect of Xiao Yingda on the polluted industrial income caused by pollution, so the overall pollution industry to undertake effectively improve the Midwest residents income level. In total regional comparison, the central region of the economic growth effect of pollution intensive industrial undertaking was significantly greater than that caused by pollution of health expenditure Effect, but in the western region, the industrial transfer effect on health expenditure is not significant, and the economic base of the western region is relatively weak, geopolitical disadvantages are obvious quantity and quality to undertake the enterprise caused significantly behind in the central region. The objective assessment of pollution industry transfer effect on the economic development and the health of residents, is at this stage the Midwest China's scientific and reasonable development of industrial policy, an important guarantee for maintaining regional ecological balance and the health of residents. The static evaluation and dynamic analysis perspective based on this research verified the current China's pollution industry transfer to the Midwest showed an overall trend, this transfer is reflected not only the total rise to pollution transfer, and transfer the difference of the diffusion trend is more obvious. Although the pollution industry to undertake bring opportunities for the economic development in the Midwest, but Analysis also shows that this effect is relatively short and unsustainable. Then the empirical analysis found that although at this stage of industrial pollution, residents of the Midwest undertake prevalence rate has not significantly improved, but the probability of individual residents feel poor health has a significant upward trend. Therefore, although the health expenditure effect of pollution industry at this stage in the central and western regions to undertake income growth the effect is greater than the pollution caused by, but the potential risk of deterioration of the health of the residents must undertake timely attention. This not only need to strengthen the source of pollution control and governance at the end of the central and western regions, but also to the environmental risk assessment and ecological compensation and restoration measures, the health risks of pollution industry to undertake residents to a minimum.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;X503.1;X22

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