低碳经济对居民健康的影响及协调对策研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 18:50

本文关键词： 低碳经济居民健康差分广义矩估计(DGMM) 两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS) 协调发展多目标优化　出处：《山东大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：粗放的经济增长方式为我们带来经济增长的同时带来了环境的恶化,雾霾、酸雨、气候变暖等环境问题的频繁出现给人类的健康带来了损害,也给人类的生产和发展带来了威胁。因此,如何在保持经济增长的同时,有效的保护环境和保障居民健康是每个国家政府所亟待解决的重要问题。2010年中国超越日本成为世界第二大经济体的同时,也成为世界温室气体排放大国和环境污染大国。可见发展低碳经济、改善居民健康进而实现经济、环境、健康等可持续发展对我们国家尤为迫切和重要。那么发展低碳经济将给居民健康带来怎样的影响,这个问题的回答将有助于我们更加明确的认识到发展低碳经济的重要性,也有助于我们找准低碳经济该遵循怎样的发展模式。本文的研究可为我国低碳经济发展实践提供导向性的理论指导,也为政府部门制定相应的经济、环境、健康的相关政策和措施提供参考依据,具有较强的理论意义和现实意义。本文在前人研究的基础上,综合环境经济学、卫生经济学、公共经济学和计量经济学等理论学科,采用规范经济学和实证经济学、宏观经济学和微观经济学、定性研究和定量研究相结合的研究方法,首先探讨了发展低碳经济带来的健康影响,进一步研究两者的协调现状及优化策略,在此基础上提出低碳经济的发展模式。主要回答了以下几个问题：低碳经济和居民健康之间的关系是什么(What)?为什么低碳经济和居民健康存在这样的关系(Why)?低碳经济对居民健康的影响程度有多大(How)?目前的低碳经济与健康的关系怎么样(How)?是否协调?低碳经济该遵循什么样的发展模式以更好地促进健康(What)?为此,本文进行了如下的分析：首先,在充分分析了低碳经济和健康的内涵的基础上,采用了广义低碳经济和广义健康的定义,采用LOWA算子法筛选指标,分别构建低碳经济评价指标体系和居民健康评价指标体系；利用结合因子分析法和层次分析法的组合赋权法对各指标进行赋权；采取我国2000-2013年相应的指标数据得到低碳经济综合指数和居民健康综合指数作为我国低碳经济和居民健康现状的代表。紧接着利用协整模型、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验分析了我国低碳经济和居民健康的关系。第二,低碳经济对健康影响的机制理论分析,分别从作用机制、路径分析、以及理论模型三个方面进行阐述： (1)从经济因子、环境因子和生活方式三个途径解释了低碳经济影响健康的作用机制; (2)分别从温室气体及其他气体污染物来源的主要渠道,即电力行业、家庭能源、交通运输、食品和农业生产等四个领域对低碳经济影响健康做路径分析；(3)通过对现有健康生产函数的梳理,在Grossman(1972)创建的健康生产函数的基础上,构建了柯布-道格拉斯形式的微观和宏观健康生产函数作为实证分析的模型基础。第三,低碳经济的居民健康效应分析。将低碳经济分解为经济因子、环境因子、生活方式三个方面考察其对居民健康的影响效应。首先,从低碳经济的经济因子和环境因子两个角度,分别选取国家层面的面板数据、城市层面的时间序列数据分析了低碳经济对居民健康的宏观效应和微观效应,综合考虑环境污染、经济增长对居民健康的影响。其次,生活方式对健康的影响由于数据难于获取,无法体现在健康效应模型中,故使用自制的《低碳生活与健康关系》调查问卷进行抽样调查。第四,研究低碳经济与健康的关系是否协调或“经济-环境-健康”三系统的协调状态的问题。首先利用模糊隶属函数协调度法测算“经济-环境-健康”三系统的协调状态;其次进行“经济-环境-健康”系统协调发展的多目标优化,对计算值和目标值进行比较分析。本文研究发现：2000年以来我国低碳经济发展水平和健康水平均呈现上升趋势,两者间存在协整关系即长期稳定关系,同时存在短期波动；低碳经济对健康存在促进作用,但要经过一定的滞后期才能显现出来。低碳经济通过经济因子、环境因子和生活方式等方面影响健康。不管选取怎样的代表性指标,也不管选取何种层面的数据,低碳经济的宏微观居民健康效应研究均发现经济的增长和良好的环境有利于健康的改善,同时低碳生活方式能够促进社区居民健康状况的改善。关于低碳经济和健康的协调状态,2000-2013年间我国的经济、环境、健康协调情况虽然得到改善,但仍处于“弱协调”阶段,尚没有形成可持续发展所必需的协调的系统关系,距离“优质协调”状态还有很长的距离。多目标优化结果显示,产业结构、碳排放、绿化水平等指标是影响EEH系统协调的关键指标。最后,低碳经济发展模式应该建立在“经济-环境-健康”三系统协调发展的基础上,是“经济-环境-健康”三维一体的多目标复合系统和有机整体,不能单纯从经济角度或环境角度等单方面决策。因此,本文从系统论的角度提出低碳经济的发展模式,即综合经济保障系统、环境保障系统、社会保障系统和制度保障系统的系统化的低碳经济发展模式。要统筹规划,综合决策,兼顾经济增长、环境保护和健康促进,从而实现可持续发展。本文的创新之处在于从居民健康的视角研究低碳经济的发展问题,首次构建了“经济-环境-健康”系统协调发展的多目标规划模型,在“经济-环境-健康”协调发展和多目标优化的基础上提出系统化的低碳经济发展模式,丰富了低碳经济发展的理论体系；理论机制分析可为研究低碳经济对居民健康的影响提供理论基础；研究方法方面低碳经济和健康综合评价指标体系的构建可得到比单一指标或综合评价模型更为稳健的结果；组合赋权法的使用有效避免了客观赋权法和主观赋权法的缺陷；实证分析方面改变空气污染急性健康效应和慢性健康效应的传统思路,从宏观效应和微观效应的角度系统地分析了低碳经济发展的居民健康效应,丰富了低碳经济健康效应定量分析的内容,改善了定性研究占主导的局面。多层面多类型数据分析的稳健性结果弥补了单一数据导致的片面结论。
[Abstract]:At the same time, the extensive mode of economic growth has brought economic growth as we bring about the deterioration of the environment, haze, acid rain, climate warming and other environmental problems frequently brings harm to human health, but also to the production and development of human pose a threat. Therefore, how to maintain economic growth in security at the same time, effectively protect the environment and to protect the health of residents is an important issue for each country government to resolve the.2010 China surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy at the same time, also become the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gas pollution and environmental pollution of visible power. The development of low-carbon economy, improving the health of the people and to realize the economic, environmental, health and sustainable development of our country is urgent and important. So the development of low-carbon economy will bring what kind of impact the health of residents, the answer to this question will help us to have a more clear understanding to the hair The importance of the development of low-carbon economy, but also help us to identify the low carbon economy should follow what development model. This study can provide theoretical guidance for the practice oriented development of low carbon economy in our country, has formulated the corresponding economic environment, government departments, to provide reference for the related policies and measures of health, has the theoretical and practical significance. Based on the previous research, comprehensive environmental economics, health economics, public economics and econometrics theory, using normative economics and positive economics, macroeconomics and microeconomics, research methods of qualitative research and quantitative research, firstly discusses the impact of health the development of low carbon economy, coordination status and optimization strategy for further study of the two, on the basis of the development of low carbon economy model. Mainly answers the following questions Question: what is the low carbon economy and residents of the relationship between health (What)? Why there is such a relationship between low carbon economy and the health of residents (Why)? The degree of influence of low carbon economy on the health of residents have much (How)? How about the relationship of low carbon economy at present and health (How) coordination? Low carbon economy should follow? What kind of development model to promote better health (What)? Therefore, this paper carried out the following analysis: first, based on the full analysis of the low carbon economy and the health of the connotation, the generalized low carbon economy and the broad definition of health, using the LOWA operator method for screening index evaluation system of low-carbon economy and residents health evaluation index system were constructed; using combination of factor analysis and AHP weighting method to calculate the weights of each index; take 2000-2013 in our country the corresponding index data obtained by low carbon The comprehensive index of economic comprehensive index and the health of the residents as the representative of China's low carbon economy and residents' health status. Then by using the cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between low carbon economy and the health of residents in China. Second, analysis on the health effects of low carbon economy mechanism theory, path analysis respectively. From the mechanism, and the theoretical model of three aspects: (1) from the economic factors, environmental factors and lifestyle in three ways to explain the mechanism of the low carbon economy health effects; (2) from greenhouse gas and other gaseous pollutants from the main channel, the electric power industry, household energy, transportation four areas of transportation, food and agricultural production on the impact of low carbon economy healthy path analysis; (3) based on the existing health production function analysis, Grossman (1972) to create the health production function On the basis of the foundation of the micro and macro health production function of Cobb Douglas form as the analysis model. Third, analysis of the health effects of low carbon economy residents. Low carbon economy is decomposed into economic factors, environmental factors, life style three aspects to investigate its effects on the health of residents. First of all, from the two aspects of economic factors and environmental factors of low carbon economy, selected panel data at the national level, city level time series data analysis of the macroeconomic effect of low carbon economy on the health of residents and microscopic effects, comprehensive consideration of environmental pollution, the impact of economic growth on the health of residents. Secondly, due to the effects of lifestyle on health it is difficult to obtain data, can not be reflected in the health effects in the model, so the use of homemade "low carbon life and Health > sample survey questionnaire. Fourth, the research of low carbon economy and A healthy relationship is harmonious coordination state or economy environment health system three problems. Firstly, the fuzzy membership function of the three coordinated state system coordination degree method to measure "economy environment health"; secondly, multi-objective optimization of economy environment health system coordinated development, and the target calculation the values were compared and analyzed. This study found that: since 2000, China's low carbon economy development level and health level showed a rising trend, there is a cointegration relationship is a long-term stable relationship between the two, at the same time there are short-term fluctuations; low carbon economy has promoting effect on health, but after a certain lag low to appear. Carbon economy through economic factors, effects of environmental factors and lifestyle health. No matter how representative selection index, or select what kind of level data, low carbon economy macro micro Study on residents health effects were found in economic growth and a favorable environment conducive to health improvement, while low carbon lifestyle can promote the health of community residents. The improvement of a low carbon economy and healthy state of coordination, economy, China's environmental health 2000-2013 years, although coordination improved, but still in "weak coordination" stage, is not necessary for the formation of sustainable development coordination system, from "quality coordination" is still a long distance. The multi-objective optimization results show that the industrial structure, carbon emission index, green level is a key index of the development of EEH system. Finally, the development of low carbon economy mode should be based on the coordinated development of economy environment health "three system," multi target compound system of economy environment and health "three in one organic whole, not only from the Economic angle or angle of unilateral decision environment. Therefore, the thesis puts forward the development model of low carbon economy from the angle of system theory, the comprehensive economic security system, environmental protection system, social security system and system protection system of low carbon economy development mode. To co-ordinate the planning, decision-making, taking into account the economic growth and the environment protection and health promotion, so as to realize the sustainable development. The innovation of this paper is from the perspective of the development of health problems of the residents of low carbon economy, for the first time established the multi-objective programming model of economy environment health system coordinated development, put forward the development mode of the system of low carbon economy on the basis of the coordinated development of economy environment - health and multi-objective optimization, enriches the theory system of low-carbon economic development; the theory of mechanism analysis can provide theory to affect the health of residents of low carbon economy The basic construction; available for more robust results than the single index and comprehensive evaluation model of low carbon economy and health comprehensive evaluation index system; using the combination weighting method can effectively avoid the objective method and subjective weighting method defects; empirical analysis of traditional ideas to change the air pollution acute health effects and chronic health the effect, from the macroscopic effect and microcosmic effect were analyzed systematically the health effects of low carbon economic development residents, enrich the health effect of low carbon economy quantitative content, improve the qualitative study of the dominant situation. Analysis of multi type data results for the robustness of a single data one-sided conclusion caused.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：R1;F124.5

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