基于系统动力学的西安市土地综合承载力评价与预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 16:25

  本文关键词： 土地综合承载力 系统动力学 评价指标体系 动态仿真模拟 西安市　出处：《西北工业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地资源不仅是人类维持生产生活的基础,也是人类社会发展的重要前提条件。随着经济发展和城市化进程的不断加剧,人口增多、耕地减少、水资源短缺、环境污染等问题日益突出,给城市领域的土地系统带来巨大压力,甚至使其出现超负荷状态。因此对土地综合承载力的研究不仅对实现土地可持续利用具有重要意义,同时也为合理制定城市可持续发展规划提供了重要的参考依据。本文结合可持续发展、系统科学、资源稀缺、土地综合承载安全等相关理论,对土地综合承载力的现状和未来发展趋势进行了评价和预测。首先,本文对国内外相关的土地综合承载力研究进展做出了归纳总结,对现有研究方法及其中存在的问题进行了探讨和分析。然后结合西安市土地利用现状,依据承载客体的不同将土地综合承载力系统分为四个子系统,由水土资源、生态环境、经济技术、社会发展子系统组成。根据西安市实际发展特点,选取合适的评价指标,构建西安市土地综合承载力评价指标体系。运用均方差决策法对西安市1994~2013年的土地综合承载力现状和动态变化进行评价分析。其次,利用系统动力学方法建立西安市土地综合承载力系统模型,并对其进行检验与修正。根据灵敏度分析结果设定五种仿真方案,分别为现状延续、经济优先、资源集约、环境保护和协调发展。采用系统动力学软件Vensim DSS 5.8对系统模型进行动态仿真预测和方案优选,从而分析出西安市未来土地综合承载力的最佳发展模式。最后,结合西安市的土地利用现状和不同政策的影响因素,根据仿真结果为其土地综合承载力的提升和土地可持续利用提出具有针对性的对策和建议。本文主要的研究内容和创新点如下:第一,本文选定城市领域的土地综合承载力为研究对象,拓展了土地承载的主体和客体。由于城市系统的复杂性,使其土地综合承载力的研究必须具有系统性,其承载主体从以往以耕地为主的单一土地利用类型拓展到更多类型,包括耕地、其他农用地及城市建设用地等。土地的承载客体也由以往以粮食生产、人口规模为主的单一要素扩展到城市社会经济发展的方方面面,尤其同时考虑到水土资源利用和生态环境因素对城市土地承载力的影响,进行了全方位多维度的详细分析,为国内相关研究提出新的研究方向。第二,本文以动态、发展的研究视角对城市土地综合承载力进行了评价和预测研究。现有对土地承载力的研究大多以静态分析为主,主要集中在对土地综合承载力的现状进行评价研究,往往缺乏对其未来发展趋势的预测分析,忽略了系统的流动性和反馈性。本文以可持续发展为原则,关注土地综合承载力系统的动态性,及其构成要素的流动性,同时考虑不同政策的发展因素,采用系统动力学方法,依托Vensim构建以城市区域为主体的系统动力学模型,并对其进行动态仿真预测和方案优选,从而能够更加准确的观察研究区未来的土地综合承载力发展趋势,并为其制定出符合土地可持续利用和城市可持续发展要求的对策和措施,探索了系统动力学研究的新领域。第三,本文使用同一评价指标体系和计算方法,将评价与预测有机结合,建立了较为完整、科学的土地综合承载力研究方法。首先,现有的研究大多单独对土地综合承载力进行现状评价或未来预测,较少将其现状与未来发展趋势综合起来进行分析。本文将仿真预测的结果代入现状评价的计算方法中,评价与预测互为引导,清楚展现研究区不同历史阶段的土地综合承载力状态,使研究结果更具统一性和完整性。其次,目前对土地综合承载力进行的评价,大多采用AHP、德尔菲法等,此类方法主观性较强,很难客观的反映研究区的土地综合承载力状态。本文结合均方差决策法与系统动力学模型,建立了更完备的反馈关联,对于目标的评估与预测更科学有效。另外,由于各子系统对土地综合承载力的影响并非简单的求和或取均值,而是互相影响、共同耦合而成的,为了同时兼顾实用性与合理性,本文结合研究区的实际情况,改变以往对子系统取平均值求得综合承载力的计算方法,在系统模型中根据各子系统的权重值最终确定土地综合承载力,使评价结果更具准确性。第四,本文从各子系统存在的具体问题分别提出解决措施使对策研究更具针对性。以往的研究通常从总体出发,提出的对策和建议较为笼统、宽泛,缺乏针对性,本文通过对西安市土地综合承载力的现状模式进行分析,分别从水土资源、生态环境、经济技术、社会发展四个方面提出相应的可持续发展策略,并且结合不同的政策发展因素,根据仿真方案的预测结果从人口规模和经济总量两个方面分别对西安市未来不同发展模式下的土地承载潜力进行分析,从而提高了对策建议的可行性。本文设定了五种仿真方案对西安市未来的土地综合承载力发展趋势进行模拟预测,实证研究结果显示,与其他方案相比,协调发展方案是最合理的发展方案。在该方案中,西安市的土地综合承载力在2025年将达到0.9091,趋近于1,处于高级状态,但其水土资源承载力仅为0.7872,介于0.6~0.8之间,处于较高级状态。表明西安市未来在水土资源利用方面应侧重提高资源利用率,适度控制城市发展规模,特别是建设用地规模,并更加合理的进行城市发展规划,提高其水土资源和社会发展承载力;同时还应大力改善城市生态环境,增加城市绿地、林地等生态用地面积,增强其生态环境承载力。通过各类子系统承载力水平的不断优化,完成对西安市土地综合承载力的提升,这将是实现城市土地可持续利用及城市未来可持续发展的重要手段。
[Abstract]:Land resources is not only the foundation of production and life of the human to maintain the development of human society, is an important prerequisite. With the development of economy and city urbanization intensifies, the population increased, the reduction of arable land, water resource shortage, environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, have brought tremendous pressure to the city land system domain, even the emergence of super load state. Therefore not only has important significance to realize the sustainable utilization of land comprehensive research on the bearing capacity of the land, but also provides an important reference for the reasonable development of the sustainable development of city planning. This paper combined with sustainable development, system science, scarce resources, comprehensive carrying safety and related theory of land, land comprehensive development status and future the bearing capacity of the trend is evaluated and predicted. Firstly, research progress of comprehensive carrying capacity of the land to the domestic and foreign related made summary The existing research methods, and the existing problems are discussed and analyzed. According to the present situation of land use in Xi'an City, on the basis of carrying objects of different land comprehensive carrying capacity of the system is divided into four subsystems, the soil and water resources, ecological environment, economy and technology, the social development subsystem. According to the actual characteristics of the development of Xi'an city and select the appropriate index, the construction of Xi'an city land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation index system of 1994~2013 in Xi'an City, the land comprehensive carrying capacity status and dynamic changes were analyzed using mean variance decision method. Second, using the system dynamics method to build the city of Xi'an integrated land carrying capacity system model, and carry out inspection and correction of the sensitivity analysis results. According to the setting of five kinds of simulation methods, intensive respectively situation continues, the economic priorities, resources, environmental protection and coordinated development. Using system dynamics The software of Vensim DSS 5.8 model of system optimization and dynamic simulation and prediction scheme, so as to analyze the optimal development mode of Xi'an city in the future land comprehensive carrying capacity. Finally, the effects of land use status and different policy factors combined with the city of Xi'an, according to the simulation results for the integrated land carrying capacity and enhance the sustainable land use is proposed the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The main research contents and innovations are as follows: first, this paper selected the city area of land comprehensive carrying capacity as the research object, expand the main body of land capacity and passenger body. Because of the complexity of city system, to study the land comprehensive carrying capacity must be systematic, using a single type the land carrying the body from the past mainly cultivated land to expand to more types, including arable land, other agricultural land and city construction land. The land of the passenger Also from the grain production, single factor population mainly extended to the city economic and social development in all aspects, especially considering the effect of soil and water resources utilization and ecological environment factors on the bearing capacity of city land, carried out a detailed analysis of the multidimensional, put forward a new research direction for the domestic research. Second, based on the dynamic, comprehensive evaluation and prediction of bearing capacity of city land development perspective. The existing study on land carrying capacity is mostly based on the static analysis, mainly focused on the status of comprehensive land bearing capacity evaluation, often lack the analysis and prediction of its future development trend, ignore the flow of the system and feedback. Based on the principle of sustainable development, focus on comprehensive land dynamic carrying capacity system, and mobility of elements, at the same time to consider With the development of policy factors, with the method of system dynamics based on Vensim model based on system dynamics in city region as the main body, and optimize the dynamic simulation and prediction on the plan, so as to the development trend of integrated land carrying capacity in the future more accurate observation of the study area, and to formulate policies and measures for sustainable land use and sustainable development of the city, explores a new field of studying the dynamics of the system. Third, this paper use the same evaluation index system and calculation method, the evaluation and prediction of organic combination, established a relatively complete scientific research methods, comprehensive carrying capacity of land. First of all, most of the existing studies on individual land comprehensive status evaluation or forecast of bearing capacity, less its current situation and future development trend of comprehensive analysis. In this paper the simulation results into the current rating The price calculation method, evaluation and prediction of mutual guidance, clearly show a different historical stage of the study area, the land comprehensive carrying capacity, make the research results more unity and integrity. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation of land carrying capacity, mostly by AHP, Delphi method, this method is subjective, comprehensive the bearing capacity is difficult to objectively reflect the status of land in the study area. Based on mean variance decision method and system dynamics model, and establishes a feedback association more complete, more effective scientific evaluation and prediction for the target. In addition, because each subsystem of comprehensive influence on the bearing capacity of land is not a simple summation or averaging. But influence each other, mutual coupling and, for both practical and reasonable, combining with the actual situation of the study area, change the previous sub system average calculated comprehensive carrying capacity In the method, the system model according to the weight of each subsystem value determines the comprehensive carrying capacity of land, make the evaluation results more accurate. Fourth, from the specific problems of each subsystem respectively put forward the measures to solve the countermeasure research more targeted. Previous studies usually start from the overall, put forward the Countermeasures and suggestions of in general, broad, lack of pertinence, based on the Xi'an city comprehensive land carrying capacity model status were analyzed respectively from the soil and water resources, ecological environment, economy and technology, put forward the sustainable development strategy of the four aspects of social development, and the combination of different factors of policy development, according to the forecast results from the two simulation program aspects of population size and economic output respectively for Xi'an's future development pattern under different land carrying capacity is analyzed, so as to improve the feasibility of countermeasures and suggestions. This paper set The five kinds of simulation methods for the future of Xi'an city land comprehensive capacity development trend forecast, the empirical results show that, compared with other schemes, the coordinated development scheme is the most reasonable development scheme. In this scheme, in 2025 will reach 0.9091 comprehensive carrying capacity of the land of Xi'an City, close to 1, at a high level state, but the bearing capacity of soil and water resources is only 0.7872, between 0.6~0.8, at a senior state. Show that the city of Xi'an in the future in the soil and water resources utilization should focus on improving the resource utilization rate, moderate control of city development scale, especially the scale of construction land, and more reasonable for city development planning, improve the bearing capacity of the the water and soil resources and social development; at the same time, but also greatly improve the city's ecological environment, increase the city green land area, forest ecological carrying capacity, enhance its ecological environment. Through all kinds of bearing system The continuous optimization of the force level will improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Xi'an, which will be an important means to achieve sustainable urban land use and the sustainable development of the city.

【学位授予单位】：西北工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F301.2
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本文编号：1466071