基于SCP范式的“后石油时代”石油产业组织演进研究

发布时间：2018-02-14 14:44

  本文关键词： 后石油时代 SCP范式 产业演化 企业行为 产业结构　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本论文力求对于“后石油时代”石油产业组织的演化特点和趋势进行研究。论文选用了产业组织理论中的SCP范式为基础,并且结合演化经济学观点就石油产业SCP范式的研究模型进行了具体设计。在此基础上,本论文以“后石油时代”外部环境变化为原点,对于石油产业组织行为演进开展分析论证,在此基础上对于石油产业结构和绩效演进开展了实证分析,最后对于中国石油产业政策如何应对“后石油时代”进行了论述和建议,并形成了若干结论。本论文对于“后石油时代”的动因、定义和供求特点进行了论述,认为政府新能源政策的驱动和新能源技术突破的驱动,作为“后石油时代”的两个主要动力,对于推动环境变迁起到关键性作用。本论文定义的“后石油时代”是指在全球低碳减排政策推动和新能源技术突破带动下,非常规油气资源和可再生能源在能源生产和消费结构中对于传统石油产品产生持续和重大的替代作用,从而降低和最终摆脱对传统石油依赖的时代。本论文用理论分析和计量经济模型相结合的方法,重点对于“后石油时代”的石油供给和需求特征进行了分析,并以中国为例,对于“后石油时代”中国石油需求曲线进行了预测。同时,论证了在新环境背景下石油市场均衡的条件,以及在此条件下的石油价格特征,说明石油需求峰值的出现将是“后石油时代”的重要特点。本论文从石油企业的价格行为、资源获取行为、一体化行为等三个方面对于“后石油时代”背景下的石油产业行为演进进行了研究。并分析了由于传统石油产业进入门槛快速降低,导致大量市场进入行为,使“后石油时代”的传统油气企业组织面临更大的挑战,市场结构发生重要变化。本论文对于石油产业链各环节市场集中度变化进行了实证分析,并且对国际石油公司、国家石油公司和独立石油公司三类组织的竞争态势演变过程进行了量化研究。同时,从石油企业的规模绩效和效率绩效两个角度,利用总资产规模和净资产收益率分别对于“后石油时代”的市场绩效演进变化进行了实证研究。这些实证性分析发现,在“后石油时代”外部环境变化通过石油产业组织行为正在持续改变石油产业结构和市场绩效。本论文在第五章中分析研究了在“后石油时代”中国石油产业面临的核心问题,中国石油产业结构和企业行为的演进特点,以及中国石油企业绩效和竞争力等现状进行了研究,并对中国石油产业的政策优化提出了建议。
[Abstract]:This paper tries to study the evolution characteristics and trend of petroleum industry organization in "post-petroleum era". The paper chooses the SCP paradigm of industrial organization theory as the basis. The research model of SCP paradigm in petroleum industry is designed based on the viewpoint of evolutionary economics. On this basis, the external environment change of "post-petroleum era" is taken as the origin of this paper. On the basis of the analysis and demonstration of the evolution of petroleum industry organizational behavior, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the evolution of petroleum industry structure and performance, and finally discusses and suggests how to deal with the "post-petroleum era" in China's petroleum industry policy. In this paper, the motivation, definition and characteristics of supply and demand of "post-petroleum era" are discussed, and the driving force of the government's new energy policy and the driving force of new energy technology breakthrough are pointed out. As the two main driving forces of the "post-petroleum era", it plays a key role in promoting environmental change. The definition of "post-petroleum era" in this paper refers to the global low-carbon emission reduction policy and the breakthrough of new energy technology. Unconventional oil and gas resources and renewable energy have a continuous and significant substitute role for traditional petroleum products in energy production and consumption structures. In order to reduce and finally get rid of the era of dependence on traditional oil, this paper uses the method of combining theoretical analysis and econometric model to analyze the characteristics of oil supply and demand in "post-petroleum era", and takes China as an example. The oil demand curve of China in the "post-petroleum era" is forecasted. At the same time, the conditions of oil market equilibrium under the new environment and the oil price characteristics under these conditions are demonstrated. It shows that the peak oil demand will be an important feature of the "post-petroleum era". This paper studies the evolution of petroleum industry behavior under the background of "post-petroleum era" from three aspects, such as integration behavior, and analyzes the behavior of market entry due to the rapid decrease of entry threshold of traditional oil industry. The traditional oil and gas enterprise organizations in the "post-petroleum era" are faced with greater challenges and the market structure has undergone important changes. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the changes of market concentration in various links of the petroleum industry chain, and makes an empirical analysis of the changes of the market concentration in various links of the oil industry chain, as well as the international oil companies. The evolution process of competition situation of three groups of national oil companies and independent oil companies is studied quantitatively. At the same time, from the perspective of scale performance and efficiency performance of oil enterprises, The evolution of market performance in the "post-petroleum era" is empirically studied by using the total asset size and the return on net assets, respectively. In the "post-petroleum era", the external environment changes the petroleum industry structure and market performance continuously through the petroleum industry organization behavior. In chapter 5th, this paper analyzes the core problems facing China's petroleum industry in the "post-petroleum era". This paper studies the evolution characteristics of China's petroleum industry structure and enterprise behavior, as well as the current situation of China's oil enterprises' performance and competitiveness, and puts forward some suggestions for the policy optimization of China's oil industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22
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本文编号：1510940