我国货币流通速度的区域差异性研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 12:24

  本文选题：货币　切入点：货币流通速度　出处：《兰州大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来货币流通速度下降成为我国宏观经济运行中的一个突出问题,货币流通速度函数的不稳定,给货币调控带来挑战。这一现象逐渐引起了决策层和研究界的关注。中国经济的一个突出特征是存在着巨大的区域差异性,理论上不同地区经济和金融的差异会对其货币供需均衡以及货币的产出效率形成影响,最终使得各地区货币流通速度呈现出差异性。这是一个很有意义的研究课题。然而现有文献对货币流通速度问题的研究,往往以全国作为一个整体对象,而忽略了对一国内不同区域的研究。本文基于大国区域经济与金融发展的异质性背景,对货币流通速度的时间和空间变动特征进行研究,探讨改革开放后,货币流通速度在不同区域的变动规律。在对长期变化趋势进行统计判断的基础上,运用计量经济方法,从区域货币需求、货币供给以及货币的产出效率三个方面,深入探究了相关因素对区域货币流通速度的影响。论文的主要贡献在于突破已有研究的总量思维,基于严格的计量方法,从区域视角展开结构分析,得到更为细致和具有政策意义的结论。论文的主要研究结论为:第一,我国面临着整体货币流通速度下降和区域间差异明显的双重问题,表现为东部地区货币流通速度较小,西部次之,中部地区最大。货币流通速度还有一个下降周期,且西部地区有更长的收敛时间。第二,区域货币供应非均衡测算表明,东部地区整体呈现货币过剩,中部地区整体不足,西部地区不足的程度较弱,且不同省份之间差异明显。第三,发行渠道的内生性使得基础货币投放存在严重的区域差异,货币乘数和资金流动的双重作用使得货币供应区域不平衡的程度进一步放大,而冲销操作并不能有效地解决这一问题。第四,不同地区货币需求函数差异明显。经济较发达的东部地区相对于中西部地区保持了更高的货币需求增长,对非均衡分布的货币提供吸纳机制。机会成本变量的变动并没有对这种需求差异起到理论上的调节作用。第五,东部地区货币供应增长对产出的影响力要弱于中西部地区,货币的产出效率呈现出中、西、东递减规律。第六,正是货币供应量呈现东、西、中逐渐减少的趋势,货币对产出的贡献呈现出东、西、中逐渐增大的趋势,收入型货币流通速度呈现出东部地区最低,西部地区次之,中部地区最高的现象。因此应考虑货币流通速度区域差异性的客观事实,实施差异化政策措施,以加快货币流通,提高货币区域配置效率。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the decline in the velocity of money circulation has become a prominent problem in the macroeconomic operation of our country, and the function of the velocity of money circulation is unstable. This phenomenon has gradually attracted the attention of policy makers and researchers. A prominent feature of China's economy is the existence of huge regional differences. Theoretically, the economic and financial differences in different regions will have an impact on the balance of money supply and demand and on the efficiency of monetary output. This is a meaningful research topic. However, the current literature on the velocity of money circulation often takes the whole country as a whole object. Based on the heterogeneity of regional economic and financial development of large countries, this paper studies the temporal and spatial characteristics of the velocity of currency circulation, and probes into the reform and opening up after the reform and opening up to the outside world. On the basis of statistical judgement of the long-term change trend, the paper applies econometric method to analyze the regional money demand, money supply and the efficiency of money output. The main contribution of this paper is to break through the thought of total amount of existing research, based on the strict measurement method, to carry out structural analysis from the regional perspective. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, China is faced with the dual problems of the decrease of the overall currency circulation velocity and the obvious regional difference, which is manifested by the smaller circulation velocity of the money in the eastern region. The west is second, the central region is the largest. The velocity of money flows has a period of decline, and the western region has a longer time to converge. Second, the unbalanced calculation of the regional money supply shows that the eastern region as a whole has a currency surplus. The central region as a whole is short, the western region is weak, and the differences between different provinces are obvious. Thirdly, the endogeneity of the distribution channels makes the base money investment exist serious regional differences. The dual effect of money multiplier and capital flow further magnifies the regional imbalance of the money supply, and the operation of sterilisation cannot solve this problem effectively. 4th, There are significant differences in the function of monetary demand in different regions. The eastern region, where the economy is more developed, has maintained a higher growth in monetary demand than in the central and western regions. The change of opportunity cost variable does not play a theoretical role in regulating the difference in demand. In 5th, the influence of money supply growth on output in the eastern region is weaker than that in the central and western regions. The output efficiency of money shows the law of decreasing from middle, west and east to east. 6th, it is the money supply that is gradually decreasing in east, west and middle. The contribution of money to output is gradually increasing in the east, west and middle. The circulation velocity of the income money is the lowest in the eastern region, the second in the western region, and the highest in the central region. Therefore, we should consider the objective fact of the regional difference of the velocity of currency circulation, and implement the policy measures of differentiation in order to speed up the circulation of money. Improve the efficiency of currency allocation.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F822.2
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本文编号：1556513