面向自贸区的保税区效力效率评价及突变演化研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 19:20

本文选题：保税区　切入点：自由贸易区　出处：《大连海事大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：作为自由贸易区的一种过渡性区域—保税区,其转型升级势在必行。2013年9月,上海自由贸易试验区成立,2014年12月,国家又批准设立了广东、福建、天津三个自由贸易试验区。在当前保税区向自由贸易区转型升级背景下,文章对保税区向自由贸易区的演化问题进行研究。首先对保税区的演化效力进行评价；建立保税区演化效力评价指标体系；将熵权法与TOPSIS法结合,建立评价模型；对我国12个主要保税区的演化效力进行实证分析。分析结果显示上海外高桥保税区、天津保税区、大连保税区分别为演化效力评价的前三名。然后对保税区综合效率进行评价,分析效率评价的影响因素,建立综合效率评价指标体系；分别建立静态效率评价DEA模型和动态效率评价DEA-Malmquist指数模型；对我国12个主要保税区的综合效率进行静态和动态实证分析。静态评价中上海外高桥保税区、天津保税区和张家港保税区分别为综合效率评价的前三名；动态评价中厦门象屿保税区的全要素生产效率最高,大连保税区、天津保税区、张家港保税区和宁波保税区的全要素生产效率并列第二名；技术进步因素导致动静态评价结果出现分歧,上海保税区在技术进步上出现了明显下滑,厦门保税区表现出了很好的技术进步趋势。最后对保税区向自由贸易区的突变演化问题进行研究；将保税区自身演化效力和综合效率作为控制变量、外界因素作为随机变量、演化阶段作为状态变量,建立了保税区向自由贸易区演化的尖点突变模型。实证分析结果显示我国保税区主要处于A、B、D三个阶段,没有处于C阶段的保税区。模型的拟合结果验证了保税区向自由贸易区的演化符合尖点突变机制,保税区的演化效力和综合效率共同决定其向自由贸易区演化的正则因子,演化效力决定分歧因子；A、B、C、D四个阶段的保税区向自由贸易区突变可能性由大到小排序结果为DACB;保税区向自由贸易区的突变是不可逆的；正则因子和分歧因子在分歧区域之外时,保税区的演化状态是均衡的。
[Abstract]:As a transitional region of the Free Trade area, bonded area is imperative. In September 2013, Shanghai Free Trade pilot Zone was established, and in December 2014, the state approved the establishment of Guangdong, Fujian, Three free trade experimental zones in Tianjin. Under the background of the transition from bonded zone to free trade area, this paper studies the evolution of free trade zone from bonded area to free trade area. The evaluation index system of evolution effectiveness of bonded area is established, the evaluation model is established by combining entropy weight method with TOPSIS method, and the evolution effectiveness of 12 major bonded zones in China is analyzed empirically. The results show that Shanghai Waigaoqiao bonded area, Tianjin bonded area, Dalian bonded area is the top three in the evaluation of evolution effectiveness. Then the comprehensive efficiency of bonded area is evaluated, the influencing factors of efficiency evaluation are analyzed, and the index system of comprehensive efficiency evaluation is established. The static efficiency evaluation DEA model and the dynamic efficiency evaluation DEA-Malmquist index model are established respectively, and the comprehensive efficiency of 12 major bonded areas in China is analyzed by both static and dynamic empirical analysis. The static evaluation of Shanghai Waigaoqiao bonded Zone, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone, Tianjin Free Trade Zone and Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone are the top three in comprehensive efficiency evaluation respectively. In dynamic evaluation, Xiamen Xiangyu bonded area has the highest total factor production efficiency, Dalian bonded area, Tianjin Free Trade Zone, Zhangjiagang bonded Zone and Ningbo bonded Zone ranked second in terms of total factor production efficiency. Technological progress factors led to differences in dynamic and static evaluation results, and the Shanghai bonded area saw a marked decline in technological progress. Xiamen bonded area shows a good trend of technological progress. Finally, the sudden evolution from bonded zone to free trade area is studied. The evolution effectiveness and comprehensive efficiency of bonded area are taken as control variables, and external factors as random variables. As a state variable, a cusp mutation model of the free trade zone is established. The empirical results show that the bonded zone is mainly in the three stages of Agna BfD. The fitting result of the model verifies that the evolution from bonded area to free trade area accords with the cusp mutation mechanism. The evolution effectiveness and comprehensive efficiency of bonded area jointly determine the regular factor of its evolution to free trade area. The evolutionary effectiveness determines that the probability of catastrophe from the bonded zone to the free trade area in the four stages of the divergence factor Agna BCU D is DACB. the mutation from the bonded area to the free trade area is irreversible, while the regular factor and the bifurcation factor are outside the diverging region. The evolution of the bonded area is balanced.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.5

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