风险感知、风险管理策略和巴基斯坦棉花农户的贫困性实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 22:04

  本文选题：风险感知　切入点：风险管理　出处：《华中农业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：巴基斯坦的经济发展和生活水平很大的依靠农业,该国农业贡献了21%的国内生产总值(GDP),且有43%的人口从事农业生产。近10年中,人口的增加和停滞增长农业导致了农产品需求和攻击的不均衡。农业增长的停滞主要是由于面临各种风险包括气候风险和农场层面的低适应能力等造成的作物产品产量的持续下降。巴基斯坦是近10年来遭受气候风险总严重的前10个国家之一。农民是遭受危机和风险的最重要的利益相关体。农民不得不要面对来自自然、经济、社会政治环境等不同的风险。农民需要接受变化着的管理政策去规避这些风险和维护他们的作物产量。目前巴基斯坦的农业政策不能很好的关注农民感知层面和农场水平的风险管理。而且在巴基斯坦,这些方面的交互作用的研究也很有限。这篇博士论文以棉花农民为例,聚焦推动农民接受不同管理选择(包括增加收入来源来抵作物生产的带来的风险)的影响因素。具体而言,本研究的四个研究目标中,第一个是描述和对主要的农业风险进行分类,其次定义农民的on-farm(耕种自家田地)和off-farm(耕种别人家的田地)风险管理策略,第三个研究探究非农收入的前置因素,第四个研究阐述了非农收入和脱离贫困的关系。这个研究基于家庭层面的从2014-2015年的巴基斯坦punjab生的调研。我们使用结构化问卷访问了480个农村家庭。研究运用了多种经济和统计手段去探索我们的研究目的。运用SPSS软件的因子分析功能来找出风险来源和农场层面的风险管理的主要决定因素。进而,我们使用OLS回归来探索农场、农民特征、风险来源与风险管理的关系。通过因子分析,我们明确了五个主要的风险来源,例如劳动力和市场信息,产量,制度,金融、国家等和五个主要的风险管理策略,如资金管理、信用、科研、信息管理和多样化。OLS回归的结果表明许多农场和农户特征显著的影响了农户的风险感知来源和风险策略的选择。进一步,我们运用ELCE方法来分析农户风险行为,我们发现通常而言大部分的农户是风险规避的。我们用probit模型来探究影响风险规避本性和四个主要风险感知(如洪水,暴雨,病虫害和高买入价格)的影响因素。结果表明人口统计学变量(如年龄、受教育水平、地区)显著的影响了家庭农业风险规避的本性和风险重要性的感知。我们运用逻辑回归方法来分析off-farm(耕种他人田地)由于感知风险造成收入的变动的影响因素。我们发现非农收入不仅能帮助农民来规避来自特定风险的损失,而且能够为农民提供额外的收入用来及时的购买农业生产要素例如种子、化肥以及地下水。根据农民的回答,我们可以将非农收入的来源分为商业、服务以及非农劳动三种。逻辑回归的结果显示,例如农场规模、家庭劳动力数量、抚养比例、临街状况等特征都是导致农民参与非农收入来源的影响因素。贫穷也是农场层面的一大障碍,它限制了农民管理风险的能力。我们运用FGT技术来评估务农家庭的贫困水平和贫困的严重程度。我们使用人均每天2美元作为人民生活的贫困线。调查显示一半以上的人生活在贫困线以下。逻辑回归的结果显示教育、抚养比例、贷款能力、风险策略适应力等因素显著的影响了研究区域内的被调查的贫困程度。从所有的研究发现中我们可以总结出:对风险来源的较好识别以及风险管理的策略对农民来获得较好农业产量来说至关重要。政府应该提出更好的政策和发展制度性机制例如粮食保险系统来帮助摊薄农业风险。能够获得更好的农业生产对农村家庭的生活有着多方面的效果。这能够提高他们的家庭年收入并帮助他们脱离贫困的恶性循环。此外,全面的农业增长能够提高国家层面的经济水平。增加农民的耕种其他人的土地带来的收入来源的采用对于小的企业是可行的获得更多的收入的办法。解决贫困受访者增加农业收入和非农收入是必需的。这一目标可以通过利用非农企业中家庭职工。因此需要在这方面设计合适的政策。
[Abstract]:Pakistan's economic development and living standards greatly depend on agriculture, the agriculture contributed 21% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and 43% of the population engaged in agricultural production. In the recent 10 years, the increase of population growth and stagnation of agriculture causes demand for agricultural products and the attack is not balanced. The stagnation of agricultural growth is mainly due to the continued decline in yield of crop products caused by various risks including climate risk and farm level low adaptability and so on. Pakistan is one of the top 10 countries over the past 10 years suffered serious climate risk. Farmers are the most important stakeholders from the crisis and risk. Farmers have to face from the natural, economic risk, social and political environment. Different farmers need to accept the changing management policy to avoid these risks and maintain their crops. The current agricultural policy in Pakistan cannot Pay attention to the farmers' perception of risk management level and farm level very well. But in Pakistan, the interactions between these areas is also very limited. This thesis focused on cotton farmers for example, promote farmers to accept different management options (including sources of income to support the risk of crop production) factors. Specifically, four research objectives of this study, the first is the description and classification of the main agricultural risk, followed by on-farm (the definition of farmers farming their own land) and off-farm (another farming land) risk management strategy, Third Research on antecedents of non-agricultural income, fourth of non-agricultural the relationship between income and poverty. This research is based on the household level from 2014-2015 years of Pakistan Punjab research. We used a structured questionnaire to 480 rural home Study on the court. The use of a variety of economic and statistical methods to explore the purpose of our study. The main decision factor of risk management by using the SPSS software analysis function to find out the risk sources and farm level factors. Then, we use OLS regression to explore the farm, farmers characteristics, risk sources and risk management by factor analysis., we identified five major sources of risk, such as labor and market information, production, finance, national system, and five major risk management strategies, such as fund management, credit, research results, information management and diversification of.OLS regression shows that many farms and household characteristics significantly affect farmer's source risk perception and risk management strategies. Further, we use the ELCE method to analyze the farmers' risk behavior, we found that most of the farmers are generally risk aversion. We use pr The obit model to explore the impact of risk aversion and the nature of the four main risk perception (such as flood, storm, pest and high purchase price). The results showed that the influence factors of demographic variables (such as age, education level, family area) significantly affected the agricultural risk avoiding the nature and importance of risk perception. We using logistic regression analysis of off-farm (farming fields due to factors affecting others) perceived risk caused by the change of income. We found that the non-agricultural income can not only help the farmers to circumvent the risk from a particular loss, but also can provide additional income for timely purchasing of agricultural production factors such as seeds and fertilizers for farmers, farmers according to groundwater. The answer, we will be able to non-agricultural sources of income include commercial, service and non-agricultural labor three. Logistic regression results showed that the cases such as farm size, The number of family labor, raising the proportion of features of street condition are factors that influence farmers' participation in non farm income sources. A major obstacle to poverty is the farm level, which limits the ability of farmers to manage risk. We use the FGT technique to assess the severity of poverty and poverty of the flat water farming family. We use 2 per person a day as people's life of poverty. Survey shows that more than half of the people living below the poverty line. Logistic regression results show that education, the dependency ratio and loan risk strategy ability, adaptability and so factors significantly affect the study area surveyed poverty. From all the study findings we can conclude: the risk source identification and better risk management strategies for farmers to obtain good agricultural production is very important. The government should make policy and develop better Institutional mechanisms such as grain insurance system to help diluted agricultural risks. To obtain better agricultural production in rural family life has a side effect. It can improve the income of their families and help them out of poverty and the vicious spiral. In addition, comprehensive agricultural growth can improve the national level economic level increased by farmers. The cultivation of other people's land revenue sources for small enterprises is feasible to get more income to solve poverty. Respondents to increase agricultural income and non-agricultural income is required. This goal can be achieved by using family enterprises. Therefore non-agricultural workers need to design appropriate policies in this regard.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F335.3
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本文编号：1687828