房价波动对异质性劳动力流动及产业结构变迁的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 07:04

  本文选题：房价波动　切入点：异质性劳动力流动　出处：《广西大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济的红利根源于生产要素的低成本优势,但这种低成本优势却不是永远的。当前,我国经济在快速发展的过程中,由于资源的稀缺性与约束性,使得一切生产成本和生活成本不断增加,尤其是随着房价的水涨船高,一方面直接引起生产要素成本的上升,企业成本的增加会导致某些低附加值企业的外迁,这种外迁究竟会导致城市产业的“空心化”还是为城市高附加值产业链向上攀升的提供发展空间,这需要系统的讨论房价上涨对产业结构变动的影响,既要讨论房价波动对产业结构合理化程度的影响又要讨论房价波动对产业结构高级化程度的影响;另一方面房价上涨直接导致劳动力生活成本的提高,然而如北上广等一线城市,尽管房价高企,仍吸引劳动力的不断流入与流出,这与之前研究结论“房价上涨对劳动力形成挤出效应”并不一致,这是否说明房价波动对劳动力流动的影响需要进一步细分,进一步的,劳动力流动引起的劳动力结构重构又对城市产业结构变迁产生怎样的影响。这一系列问题的抛出都说明研究房价波动对劳动力流动与产业结构变迁的影响十分必要。本研究以房地产经济学理论、劳动力流动理论与产业结构变迁理论为基础,从成本驱动的角度出发,通过建立房价波动影响就业结构和产业结构的演化机制,指出房价波动影响产业结构变迁的内在逻辑,阐述异质性劳动力流动的中间作用机理。具体而言,从房价上涨推动生产成本增加的角度推导房价波动影响产业结构变迁的内在机制,主要是测算在满足利润最大化的前提下房价上涨带来的企业生产成本增加引起的代表性企业(厂商)转移或升级的门槛值,论述房价波动下代表性企业(厂商)行为决策对产业结构变迁的影响;从房价上涨推动生活成本增加角度推导房价波动影响产业结构变迁的内在机制,在这个部分引入异质性劳动力流动的中间作用,首先研究房价波动对劳动力流动决策的影响,推导出房价波动下劳动力流动的绝对迁移模型和相对迁移模型,判断劳动力在何种情况会由农村迁入城市(绝对迁移),又在何种情况从一个城市迁往另一个城市(相对迁移),然后在相对迁移模型的基础上,引入异质性劳动力,进一步细分房价上涨对劳动力流动决策的影响,推演出相对房价波动对异质性劳动力跨地区的流动与重构的影响,并从异质性劳动力流动决策出发,讨论新的劳动力市场结构对产业结构变迁的影响。在定性研究部分,总结和归纳了我国房价波动的趋势与特征,并将房价波动的趋势融入对我国异质性劳动力流动和产业结构变迁现状与特征的研究之中。在定性分析房价波动与异质性劳动力流动(和产业结构变迁)的相关关系时,主要考察两者变动的趋势图,发现相对房价波动对异质性劳动力(和产业结构变迁)变动的影响存在一定的滞后性,且相对房价与异质性劳动力(和产业结构变迁)两者的相关性在波动图上,在某些阶段表现为正相关,某些阶段又表现出负相关,进一步的,相关系数证明两者之间存在关联性,因此可以推断房价波动与异质性劳动力(和产业结构变迁)之间存在复杂的非线性关系。在实证研究的第一部分,主要是基于房价波动直接引致产业结构变迁的内在机制,以及定性分析引出的问题,首先对两者进行格兰杰因果关系检验,确定房价波动是产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的格兰杰原因,然后定量分析城市房价波动对产业结构变迁(产业结构合理化程度和产业结构高级化程度)的线性(用于对比结果)和非线性影响,并更深入的从结构和地区的角度讨论城市相对房价波动对各次产业产值的影响效应以及分地区城市相对房价对产业结构变迁的影响效应。实证结果表明,房价波动对产业结构变迁存在显著的非线性影响(解释了定性研究中,趋势图显示两者在某些阶段是正相关关系而某些阶段是负相关关系的原因),在长期房价波动将不利于产业结构变迁,但在短期,相对房价上涨有利于城市产业结构合理化和高级化进程,促进城市产业结构趋于调整与完善,促进城市低附加值产业的溢出效应,为高附加值产业的发展提供广阔空间,分结构的讨论结果表明,在短期相对房价上涨对第二产业的相对产值形成显著的挤出效应,而推动第三产业相对产值的增加,即在短期,城市相对房价的上涨会促使本地区工业中某些低附加值企业不断外迁,推动工业能力不断壮大,向着价值链高端进行攀升,同时为服务业的发展提供更为广阔的发展空间,推动城市经济结构向着“经济服务化”趋势迈进,促使城市产业实现升级。此外,通过分地区的讨论表明,区际房价的相对差异确实是影响东、中、西和东北地区产业结构变迁的一个重要因素,具体而言,高房价带来企业生产成本的增加,迫使东部地区处于价值链中低端的产业逐步向相对房价较低的中西部地区转移,这一方面有利于东部地区产业升级,另一方面有利于其他地区结合自身优势,承接产业转移,实现产业结构合理化。在实证研究的第二部分,主要基于异质性劳动力流动为中间变量的房价驱动间接引致产业结构变迁的内在机制,以及定性分析引出的问题,一是定量研究房价波动对异质性劳动力流动决策的非线性影响,二是定量研究房价波动、异质性劳动力对产业结构变迁的非线性影响。实证结果表明,房价波动对异质性劳动力流动存在显著的非线性影响(解释了定性研究中,趋势图显示两者在某些阶段是正相关关系而某些阶段是负相关关系的原因),在长期房价波动将对异质性劳动力形成挤出效应(与一般研究结论一致),但在短期相对房价上涨有利于劳动力的集聚,然而普通劳动力对房价上涨更为敏感,因此高房价首先对普通劳动力形成挤出效应,迫使普通劳动力转移至房价更低的城市,而技术人才往往具备一定的房价上涨抗压性,即相对房价上涨对异质性劳动力流动存在拐点,不同是普通劳动力的面临的房价的拐点值更小。此外,在分地区讨论时,比较特殊的是在对中部地区进行考察时,高房价对普通劳动力就业形成强烈的挤出效应;对西部地区进行考察时,高房价无论是对技术人才还是普通劳动力都形成显著的挤出效应。受异质性劳动力流动这一中间变量的影响,城市相对房价上涨通过影响技术人才的流动决策,促进技术人才的集聚,促使产业向价值链高端攀升,触发城市产业升级,使产业结构更加趋于高级化,而城市相对房价上涨通过影响普通劳动力的流动决策,迫使普通劳动力溢出,阻碍劳动密集型产业的发展,不利于产业结构合理化。城市相对房价持续上涨通过影响异质性劳动力的流动决策,最终将形成对技术人才和普通劳动力的挤出效应,随着劳动力的持续外溢,最终将不利于产业结构的优化与调整,阻碍城市产业发展。通过定性和定量分析可知,要在房价持续上涨的背景下实现就业结构和产业结构的匹配发展,实现区域经济发展的协调与优化,必须将房价调控目标与区域人口布局、产业布局有机结合,引导异质性劳动力有序流动,从而促进地区产业转移的有序进行,从根本上解决区域经济不平衡发展的问题。具体而言,就是要因地制宜的实施房地产价格调控措施,促进房价合理回归;推动异质性劳动力合理有序的流动;依据异质性劳动力的重构,推动产业结构重新布局与优化。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic dividend root in production low cost advantage, but the advantage of the low cost but not always. At present, China's economy in the process of rapid development, due to the scarcity of resources and constraints, making all the production cost and the cost of living is increasing, especially as prices the rise, a direct cause of the increased cost of production factors, increase the cost of the enterprise will lead to some low value-added business relocation, the relocation will lead to city industrial "hollowing out" for the city or the high added value industry chain upward to provide space for development, which requires the system discussed influence on housing prices the change of industrial structure, not only to discuss the price fluctuations of the rationalization of industrial structure and the influence of influence of price fluctuation on industrial structure level; on the other hand, prices Rising labor led directly to the rising cost of living, however, such as the north of Guangzhou first-tier cities, despite the high prices, still attract the inflow and outflow of labor continuously, and the previous conclusions "rising prices of labor form a crowding out effect" is not consistent, whether the impact of price fluctuations on the labor mobility needs to be further subdivided further. The structure of labor force, labor mobility caused by the reconstruction and what impact on the change of industrial structure of the city. Out of this a series of problems that are essential for the study of price fluctuations influence the flow of labor force and industrial structure changes. In this study, real estate economics, labor flow theory and the evolution of industry structure theory, starting from the cost driven perspective, through the evolution of establishing the mechanism of the impact of price fluctuations in industrial structure and employment structure, points out that the real price fluctuation The internal logic of the influence of industrial structure transition, this intermediate mechanism of heterogeneous labor migration. Specifically, from the internal mechanism of housing prices push to increase the cost of production point is the impact of price fluctuations in the industrial structure changes, mainly in the production cost estimates satisfy the enterprise profit maximization under the premise of the price increases caused by the increase of representative enterprises caused by the transfer (manufacturers) or upgrade the threshold value, discusses the representative enterprises of housing price fluctuation (CMA) influence the decision-making on the changes in the industrial structure; from the internal mechanism of housing prices increase the cost of living is to promote the view of the impact of price fluctuations in the industrial structure changes, the intermediate effect into the heterogeneous labor migration in this part of the study, first of all the impact of price fluctuations on labor mobility decisions, derived from price fluctuations under absolute and relative migration model of labor flow migration Shift model, judging by the rural labor force will move into the city in the circumstances (absolute migration), and moved to another city from a city in which case (relative migration), and then based on the relative migration in the model, introducing heterogeneity in labor, housing prices rose further subdivision effect on the migration decision, pushing effect the performance flow and reconstruction of relative prices fluctuations on heterogeneous labor across the region, and starting from the heterogeneous labor migration decision, to discuss the impact of new labor market structure on the industrial structure changes. In the qualitative part, summarizes the trend and characteristics of price fluctuations in China, and the research trend of price fluctuations into the current situation and characteristics of flow on the heterogeneity of labor force in China and the changes of industrial structure. The analysis of house price volatility and heterogeneity of labor mobility in the qualitative (and the change of industrial structure related) The main effects of the two relations, the changes of the map, found the relative price fluctuations of Heterogeneous Labor (and the change of industrial structure changes) there is a certain lag, and relative prices and heterogeneity (labor and industrial structure change) the correlation between the fluctuations in the chart, at some stage was positively related to some stage shows a negative correlation, further, to prove the existence of correlation coefficient of correlation between the two, it can be concluded that the price fluctuation and heterogeneity (labor and industrial structure change) between the complex nonlinear relationship. In the first part of the empirical research, mainly is the internal mechanism of price fluctuations directly result in the changes of industrial structure and based on the problem of qualitative analysis leads to the first Grainger causality test between the two, determine the price fluctuation is the rationalization of industrial structure and industrial structure upgrading of Scotland Jason reasons, then quantitative analysis on price fluctuations of the city industrial structure change (the rationalization degree of industrial structure level and industrial structure) (for comparison) of the linear and nonlinear effects, and more in-depth discussion from the angle of city area structure and relative prices of each wave of industrial output value and area effect the relative impact of prices on the city industrial structure changes effect. The empirical results show that price fluctuations are significant nonlinear effects on the change of industrial structure (explained in qualitative research, show trends both at some stage is positively related to some stage is reason of negative correlation), in the long term price fluctuations will not be conducive to the industrial structure change, but in the short term, the relative housing prices in favor of city industrial structure rationalization and optimization process, promote the city industrial structure adjustment and improvement, promote City of low value-added industry spillover effect, high value-added industry to provide a broad space for development, discuss the structure of the results show that in the short-term relative prices relative value of the second industry formed a significant crowding out effect, and promote the increase of third relative industrial output value, in the short-term, relative prices will lead to the city this local industry in some low value-added enterprises continue to promote industrial relocation, capacity expansion, toward the end of the value chain are rising, at the same time as the development of service industry to provide a broader space for development, promote the city economic structure toward the "service economy" trend, to realize the upgrading of city industry. In addition, through the discussion area show that the relative difference of regional housing prices really affect the East, one of the important factors, West and northeast of the industrial structure changes in particular, high house prices Increased production costs, forcing the eastern region in the low-end value chain in the industry gradually transferred to the relatively low prices in the Midwest, this is good for the eastern industrial upgrading, on the other hand to other regions with their own advantages, to undertake industrial transfer, to achieve the rationalization of industrial structure in the second part of the empirical research. Mainly, the heterogeneous labor migration based on the internal mechanism of the intermediate variable driving prices indirectly caused by the changes of industrial structure, and the problem of qualitative analysis leads to a nonlinear, quantitative study on price fluctuations of the heterogeneous labor migration decisions, the two is the quantitative study of price fluctuations, nonlinear heterogeneous labor to industrial structure changes. The influence of empirical the results show that the fluctuation of housing price has significant nonlinear effects on the heterogeneous labor migration (explaining trends in qualitative research The two shows at some stage is positively related to some stage is the reason of negative correlation), in the long-term price fluctuations of the heterogeneous labor form a crowding out effect (consistent with general research), but in the short-term relative price increases for labor agglomeration, but ordinary labor on prices is more sensitive, so high prices for ordinary labor first, crowding out, forcing the ordinary labor transfer to lower prices of the city, and technical personnel often have some housing prices under pressure, relative prices exist inflection points of the heterogeneous labor migration is different, more ordinary labor prices inflection point are small. In addition, in the discussion area especially, in the study of the central region, high prices strong crowding out effect on the formation of common employment in western region were investigated; When high prices both for technical personnel or ordinary labor are crowding out significantly. Affected by the heterogeneous labor migration as the intermediate variables, relative prices rose by city flow decision effect of technical personnel, and promote the agglomeration of technical personnel, promote the industry value chain to high-end rise, triggering the city industrial upgrading, so that the industrial structure tends to be more advanced, and relative prices affect the flow through the city making ordinary labor force, labor spillover, hinder the development of labor intensive industry, is not conducive to industrial structure rationalization. City relative prices continued to rise through the influence of heterogeneous labor flow decision, will eventually form a crowding out effect on technology and talents ordinary labor, as labor continued to overflow, eventually it will not conducive to the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, hindering the city industrial development. Through qualitative and quantitative analysis, in order to achieve development, industrial structure and employment structure in housing prices continued to rise in the background, realize the coordination and optimization of regional economic development, must be the price control targets and regional population distribution, the organic combination of industrial layout, guide the orderly flow of labor heterogeneity, thereby promoting regional industrial transfer orderly to solve the unbalanced development of regional economy, the problem fundamentally. Specifically, the implementation of control measures is to local real estate prices, promote the prices reasonable return; promote the heterogeneity of labor force reasonable and orderly flow; on the basis of the reconstruction of heterogeneous labor force, promote the re layout and optimize the industrial structure.

【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F121.3;F249.2
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本文编号：1689654