亚太区域经济合作机制变迁与中国对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 07:22

本文选题：亚太区域经济合作机制变迁　切入点：TPP　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：2007年10月,党的十七大报告首次明确提出中国要"实施自由贸易区战略,加强双边多边经贸合作"。2012年11月,十八大报告再次强调中国要"统筹双边、多边、区域、次区域开放合作,加快实施自由贸易区战略,推动同周边国家互联互通"。十八届三中、五中全会进一步要求,立足周边,加快实施自由贸易区战略,形成辐射全球的高标准自贸区网络。2015年12月,国务院发布了第一份关于自贸区建设的战略性、综合性文件——《关于加快实施自贸区战略的若干意见》,从顶层设计了未来自贸区建设,明确提出了具体目标和措施。中国对推进自贸区建设工作的重视程度可见一斑。而对亚太区域经济合作机制变迁进行系统、深入研究有助于正确判断国际和亚太地区经济合作环境,找准中国参与亚太区域经济合作的定位,有助于我国更好地实施和推进自贸区战略。基于此,本文研究了亚太区域经济合作机制变迁、主要参与方利益博弈及中国对策。本文认为,亚太区域经济合作若以1997年和2008年为界限,大致可以划分为三个阶段:第一阶段(1989—1997年),这一时期以APEC为主导。APEC在这期间处于发展的鼎盛时期,确立了组织形式、宗旨、目标、合作原则等,提出了发展目标——茂物目标,对推动贸易投资自由化、便利化和促进经济技术合作起到了一定的作用。第二阶段(1997—2008年),这一时期以东盟为主导的亚太区域经济合作为特征。东盟建立了一系列"东盟+N"机制,包括"10+1"、"10+3"、"10+6"机制。东亚地区也因此形成了"小马拉大车"的合作格局。第三阶段(2008年—至今),这一时期,美国遭受全球金融危机的重创,奥巴马上台后,推出"亚太再平衡"战略,凭借TPP介入亚太区域经济合作。自此,东盟主导的东亚区域.经济合作进程被打破,东盟提出RCEP应对TPP的冲击。继之,在中国的倡导下,亚太各方于2014年APEC北京领导人非正式会议决定对FTAAP进行联合战略研究,并一致同意尽快启动FTAAP进程。这样,亚太地区形成了 TPP与RCEP两大机制并存,同时酝酿推动FTAAP的局面。本文分为七章。第一章为绪论,介绍了选题背景及意义,有关研究概念的界定,国内外研究现状述评,研究内容和论文结构,研究思路与研究方法,创新和不足。第二章运用经济学和国际关系理论,结合亚太区域经济合作机制的整体演变,分析了亚太区域经济合作机制形成及变迁。第三章至第五章分别分析了 TPP、RCEP、APEC/FTAAP的发展演变及其对亚太区域经济合作机制变迁的影响。第六章结合亚太区域经济合作主要参与方的亚太战略,探讨其相互间的利益博弈,判断亚太区域经济合作的未来发展趋势。第七章论述中国参与亚太区域经济合作的现状,并结合亚太区域经济合作机制变迁情况及实证分析结果,提出中国参与亚太区域经济合作的对策。本文主要研究内容和结论具体如下:第一,对亚太区域经济合作机制变迁的原因进行了国际政治经济分析。首先,亚太地区主要经济体在亚太地区的权力角逐引发了该地区经济合作机制的变迁。其次,全球金融危机打破了东亚和美国家之间既存的生产和消费的关系。美国强势推进TPP,搅乱了东盟主导的东亚区域经济合作进程,推动该区域经济合作机制进一步发生变迁。再次,APEC存在的问题致使其集体行动成本增加,运行效率低下,陷入了集体行动困境。各成员无奈之下转向其他区域经济合作机制。最后,亚太地区各国经济、政治、文化上的多样性在一定程度上决定着亚太区域经济合作进程的长期性和复杂性,伴随着多机制并存,竞争性合作。第二,厘清TPP、RCEP、APEC/FTAAP对亚太区域经济合作机制变迁的影响。TPP为亚太区域经济合作赋予了新的元素,推动亚太区域经济合作机制朝多元方向发展。TPP冲击了现存区域经济合作机制,催生了 RCEP,两大机制相互制衡;RCEP将在一定程度上加强东盟主导的东亚区域经济合作机制建设。RCEP加入门槛相对较低,为发展中国家参与亚太区域经济合作提供了机会;APEC停滞不前引发了亚太区域经济合作的变迁。FTAAP的提出为亚太区域经济合作机制整合提供了目标。第三,结合亚太区域经济合作主要参与方的亚太战略,分析其相互间的利益博弈,判断亚太区域经济合作未来发展趋势。亚太区域经济合作主要参与方的利益博弈表现在对东亚和亚太区域经济合作主导权的争夺上。美国推进"亚太再平衡"战略谋取亚太区域经济合作主导权,东盟推进"大国平衡"战略维持其在东亚地区的区域经济合作主导权,日本在中、美之间搞平衡,角逐东亚乃至亚太区域经济合作主导权,韩国致力于成为连结亚太区域经济合作机制的关键链条,印、澳、新积极融入亚太权力体系,期冀分得一杯羹。2015年,APEC领导人非正式会议明确指出,TPP和RCEP是未来实现FTAAP的基础。TPP、RCEP两大机制未来发展趋势存在三种可能:RCEP逐步并入TPP后融合为FTAAP;TPP和RCEP趋同后融合成FTAAP;TPP和RCEP纳入FTAAP谈判。然而,未来的亚太区域经济合作机制如何发展,主要取决于主要参与方的利益博弈和亚太地区的现实发展需要。第四,基于中国参与亚太区域经济合作的现状和之前章节的理论分析以及实证分析结果,提出中国未来参与亚太区域经济合作的对策。使用综合贸易份额指数、拓展后的贸易密集指数、HM指数分析了中国与亚太区域经济合作主要参与方的贸易依赖程度,结合现有的关于TPP、RCEP、FTAAP对中国经济影响的CGE模型分析结果以及之前章节的理论分析,提出中国未来参与亚太区域经济合作的对策:多层次、全方位参与亚太区域经济合作;建设高水平自贸区,推进自贸协定深度一体化;妥善处理中美关系,积极探索双边合作途径。
[Abstract]:In October 2007, the report of the Seventeenth Party Congress put forward clearly for the first time Chinese "implementation of the strategy of free trade zones, strengthen bilateral and multilateral trade and economic cooperation".2012 in November, eighteen report again Chinese to "coordinate bilateral, multilateral, regional and sub regional cooperation and opening up, accelerate the implementation of the strategy of free trade zones, promoting the interconnection with neighboring countries." Eighteen third, Fifth Plenary Session further requirements, based on the periphery, speeding up the implementation of the strategy of free trade zones, the formation of a high standard FTA network.2015 global radiation in December, the State Council issued the first report on the construction of the FTA strategy, a comprehensive document on accelerating the implementation of the FTA Strategy -- "a number of opinions", from the top-level design of the future free trade area. Clearly put forward specific targets and measures. The degree of China attention to promote free trade area construction work remarkable. The Asia Pacific Regional economic cooperation mechanism The transition of system, in-depth research is helpful to the correct judgement of the international and Asia Pacific economic cooperation environment, identify the location Chinese participation in economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region, it can help China better promoting the implementation of the FTA strategy. Based on this, this paper studies the change of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific, the main parties involved in the interests of the game and China countermeasures this paper argues that economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region in 1997 and 2008 as the boundary, can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage (1989 - 1997), this period led to APEC.APEC in its heyday. During this period, the establishment of the organization, purpose, objectives, principles of cooperation, put forward the development goal: the Bogor goals, to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation to a certain extent and promote economic and technological cooperation. The second stage (1997 - 2008), this time to ASEAN For the Asia Pacific regional economic cooperation oriented characteristics. ASEAN has established a series of ASEAN +N mechanism, including "10+1", "10+3", "10+6" mechanism. In East Asia, and therefore the formation of "small horse cart" cooperation pattern. The third stage (2008 - present), during this period, the United States by the global financial crisis hit, after Obama took office, launched the "Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy, with the intervention of TPP economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region. Since then, the ASEAN led East Asia regional economic cooperation process. ASEAN is broken, put forward RCEP in response to the impact of TPP. Then, in the China initiative, the Asia Pacific parties on 2014 APEC in Beijing the informal meeting of leaders decided to conduct joint research on FTAAP strategy, and agreed to start the FTAAP process as soon as possible. In this way, the formation of the Asia Pacific region TPP and RCEP coexistence of the two mechanisms, and promote the brewing FTAAP Bureau. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, introduction Describes the background and significance of the research, defines related concepts, review of domestic and international research, research content and the paper structure, research ideas and research methods, innovations and shortcomings. The second chapter uses the theory of economics and international relations, combined with the overall regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific evolution, analyzes the formation and change of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific third chapter to the fifth chapter separately analyzes the TPP, RCEP, APEC/FTAAP evolution and its influence on the change of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific Asia Pacific strategy. The sixth chapter combined with the regional economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific main party, to explore the mutual interests of the game, determine the future development trend of economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region. The seventh chapter discusses Chinese in the situation of economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region, and combined with the change of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific and the empirical analysis results, put forward China's participation in the Asia Pacific Countermeasures for regional economic cooperation. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: first, because of the change of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific has carried on the analysis of international political economy. Firstly, the main body for the Asia Pacific economic power in the Asia Pacific region caused the regional economic cooperation mechanism change. Secondly, the global financial crisis broke the existing production and consumption relations between East Asia and the United States to promote a strong country. TPP, disturbed the ASEAN led East Asia regional economic cooperation process, to further promote the change of the regional economic cooperation mechanism. Thirdly, the problems of APEC resulting in the collective action of increased costs, low efficiency, caught in the dilemma of collective action under the. Other members reluctantly turned to the regional economic cooperation mechanism. Finally, all countries in Asia Pacific economy, politics, cultural diversity determines to a certain extent A long and complex process of economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region, accompanied by a number of mechanisms coexist, competitive cooperation. In second, TPP RCEP APEC/FTAAP, to clarify, influence on the change of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific.TPP for economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region has given new elements, promote regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific in the direction of impact of the existing multiple.TPP the regional economic cooperation mechanism, the birth of RCEP, the two major mechanism; RCEP will to some extent strengthen the ASEAN led East Asia regional economic cooperation mechanism construction of.RCEP with relatively low threshold, provides an opportunity for developing countries to participate in the Asia Pacific Regional Economic Cooperation; APEC proposed.FTAAP changes caused stagnation in the Asia Pacific Regional Economic Cooperation provide a target for the integration of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific. In third, combined with the economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region the main participants in the Asia Pacific strategy analysis The mutual interests of the game, determine the future development trend of regional economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation in the Asia Pacific region. The interests of the game the main participants in the performance of East Asia and the Asia Pacific Regional Economic Cooperation for the leading power. The United States to promote the Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy for the Asia Pacific Region Economic Cooperation Initiative, ASEAN to promote the "balance of power" the strategy to maintain its regional economic cooperation in East Asia and dominate, in Japan, to seek a balance between the United States and for East Asia and the Asia Pacific Regional Economic Cooperation Initiative, South Korea is committed to becoming a key chain link of regional economic cooperation mechanisms in the Asia Pacific and India, Australia, new active integration into the Asia Pacific power system, hoping to grab a slice of.2015 year, APEC informal leadership meeting clearly pointed out that TPP and RCEP are the future foundation of.TPP FTAAP, there are three possible future development trend of RCEP two: RCEP gradually incorporated into TPP FTAAP TPP and RCEP fusion; convergence after fused into FTAAP; TPP and RCEP included in the FTAAP negotiations. However, how the future of the Asia Pacific regional economic cooperation development, the reality of development mainly depends on the main participants in the interests of the game and the Asia Pacific region. Fourth, current situation China participation in the Asia Pacific Regional Economic Cooperation and the theory of the previous chapter based on the results of analysis and empirical analysis, put forward the Countermeasures China future participation in regional economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific. The use of comprehensive trade share index, expand the trade intensity index, HM index to analyze the dependence of Chinese and the Asia Pacific regional economic cooperation is mainly involved in the trade, combined with the existing on the TPP, RCEP, CGE analysis results of model the economic impact of FTAAP and China before chapter theory, put forward the Countermeasures Chinese future participation in regional economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific: multi-level, full participation in the Asia Pacific Region Economic cooperation, the construction of a high level Free Trade Zone, the promotion of the deep integration of the free trade agreements, the proper handling of Sino US relations and the active exploration of bilateral cooperation.

【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F114.46

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