中国工业转型升级的潜力测算与路径优化研究
发布时间:2018-04-14 09:17
本文选题:工业转型升级 + 潜力 ; 参考:《大连理工大学》2016年博士论文
【摘要】:在劳动力成本攀升和日益增强的资源环境约束下,工业转型升级成为中国经济发展的关键问题。现有研究主要集中于从全球价值链视角讨论产业升级的问题,在资源环境约束视角下的研究仅限于分析能源消耗与污染问题对于经济增长产生的影响,在绿色增长研究方面主要是对绿色生产率的测算与应用。中国工业由粗放型向集约型转变,实现技术拉动下的绿色增长,不仅要努力提高技术创新能力,而且要改变传统的依赖于资源禀赋的工业发展方式。本文在绿色生产率的研究框架下,围绕工业转型升级问题,重点研究了中国工业转型升级的潜力与路径优化。对于中国工业改变现在的发展困境、实现转型升级突破具有重要的现实意义。同时,为相关研究在理论研究框架与经验研究方面提供新的思路与证据。通过构建扩展的索洛模型,分析工业部门的绿色模式,在理论上分析工业转型升级与可持续增长、绿色模式之间的内在逻辑关系。进而在理论基础上,明确提出工业转型升级的全新内涵包括价值提升、能源节约与环境友好三个方面。中国工业不仅要在生产制造过程中提高产品附加值,同时要在投入环节降低能源消耗、在产出环节降低污染排放。根据现有数据对中国工业行业的发展历程与现状进行分析,经过与其他国家的比较,发现中国工业的演进过程中存在附加值率低、能源消耗与污染排放高的问题,中国工业与发达国家的工业化水平相比仍然存在较大的提升和发展空间。理论模型部分,首先通过对绿色生产率的测算方法进行分析,将绿色生产率的测算框架与工业转型升级问题的研究相结合。并且对现有方向距离函数中存在的不足,主要在方向内生化、相对距离与目标函数引入外生权重三个方面一一进行改进。基于新的绿色生产率测算模型,构建工业转型升级潜力的测算模型。然后,基于动态多目标优化模型构建工业转型升级路径的优化模型,确定目标函数与约束条件。经过比较,选择遗传算法中的NSGA-Ⅱ法对动态多目标优化模型进行求解,进而对算法进行设计,并且选择四种主要的优化方案对其结果进行分析。对于未来工业转型升级路径的预测,选择灰色预测法对模型中的相关参数进行预测。实证研究部分,首先对中国工业行业的转型升级潜力进行测算。基于2001-2013年中国工业36个二位码行业数据,对绿色全要素生产率与能源环境效率进行测算和比较。并且分别测算出工业行业在价值提升、能源节约与环境友好方面的绝对与相对潜力。发现不同类型行业在提高附加值、减少能源投入、降低污染排放方面具有不同的变化潜力。根据工业升级潜力初步结果中发现的问题,进一步对工业升级潜力的测算模型进行修正,得到各工业行业升级潜力的真实值。模型如果未进行修正所得到的结果要低估工业行业的升级潜力。然后,对中国工业行业的转型升级路径进行优化与预测。基于2006-2010年工业行业数据对“十一五”期间中国工业转型升级的路径进行优化,得到Pareto最优解。通过对不同类型转型升级方案的比较和分析,发现工业行业可以在现有技术水平与约束条件下,通过改变行业之间的产出比例,可以增加总的工业增加值产出,同时大幅减少能源消耗量与污染排放量。进一步,分别采用2011-2015年、2016-2020年工业行业数据对“十二五”和“十三五”期间中国工业转型升级的路径进行优化与预测。结果发现在兼顾价值提升、能源节约与污染排放三个目标条件下,通过减少一些工业行业的生产规模、重点发展一部分工业行业,进而改变中国的工业结构,可以实现创造更多的工业增加值,同时减少工业能源消耗以及工业污染排放。最后对本文研究结论以及不足之处进行总结,并且提出未来可能的研究方向。
[Abstract]:In the rise of labor costs and increasing resources and environmental constraints, industrial transformation and upgrading has become the key problem China economic development. The existing researches are mainly concentrated on industrial upgrading from the perspective of global value chain, from the perspective of research in resource and environmental constraints was limited to the analysis of energy consumption and pollution problems and the impact on economic growth, in green growth is mainly on the calculation and application of green productivity. China industrial transformation from extensive to intensive, green growth driven by technology, not only must strive to improve the technical innovation ability, and to change the traditional rely on resource endowment industry development. Based on the research framework of green productivity, around industrial transformation and upgrading, focusing on the potential and path optimization and upgrading of the industrial Chinese transformation. For Chinese industrial change now The plight of the development, to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the breakthrough has important practical significance. At the same time, for the relevant research to provide ideas and new evidence in the theoretical framework and empirical research. Through the construction of the extended Solow model, analysis model of green industry, analysis in theory and the sustainable growth of industry transformation and upgrade, internal logic of the relationship between green mode between. Then on the basis of theory, put forward the new connotation of industrial transformation and upgrading including value promotion, energy saving and environmental friendly three aspects. China industry not only to raise the additional value of the products in the manufacturing process, at the same time in the sector to reduce energy consumption, reduce pollution emissions in the production link. According to the analysis and the current situation of China industry existing data, through comparison with other countries, the evolution process of industry in China found in additional The value of low energy consumption, high emission and pollution problems, Chinese industry and industrialization in the developed countries there are still large compared to the level of improvement and development space. The model, first through the calculation method of green productivity analysis, green productivity measurement and research framework of industrial transformation and upgrading and combination. The shortcomings of the existing directional distance function, mainly in the direction of endogenous, relative distance and target function are introduced into three aspects: one is improved. The weight of the exogenous productivity calculation based on the new model of green construction, calculation model of industrial upgrading and transformation potential. Then, the dynamic multi-objective optimization model optimization model based on the path of industrial transformation and upgrading sure, the objective function and constraints. By comparison, the dynamic multi-objective optimization model for solving NSGA- II method in genetic algorithm Then, the design of algorithms, and choose four kinds of optimization scheme is mainly to analyze the results. To predict the future path of industrial transformation and upgrading, select the grey prediction method to predict the parameters in the model. The empirical research part, first of Chinese industry transformation upgrade potential estimates. 2001-2013 years China industry 36 two digital industry based on the data of the green total factor productivity estimates and compares the environmental and energy efficiency. And calculates industry in value, energy saving and environmental friendly aspects of absolute and relative potential. It is found that different types of industry in improving the added value, reduce the energy input, with changes in different aspects of potential to reduce pollution emissions. According to the preliminary results of industrial upgrading potential problems in the further calculation of the model of industrial upgrading potential revised by The industrial upgrading potential true value. If the model is not corrected results underestimate the industry upgrade potential. Then, the transformation of Chinese industrial upgrading path optimization and prediction. The "path" in 11th Five-Year during China industrial transformation and upgrading of the optimized industrial data based on 2006-2010 years, get optimal Pareto the solution through the comparison and analysis of the upgrade program for different types of industrial transformation, found in the existing technical level and constraint conditions, by changing the output ratio between the industry, can increase the total added value of industrial output, while significantly reducing energy consumption and pollution emission. Further, by 2011-2015 years, industry 2016-2020 years of data optimization and prediction of the "12th Five-Year" and "13th Five-Year" during Chinese industrial transformation and upgrading of the path found. In the balance of value promotion, energy saving and pollution emissions of the three target conditions, by reducing some of the industrial production scale, the development of a part of industry focus, and then change the industrial structure Chinese, can create more industrial added value, while reducing industrial energy consumption and industrial pollution emissions. The final conclusion of this paper study and summarize the shortages, and puts forward the future research direction.
【学位授予单位】:大连理工大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2016
【分类号】:F424
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