基于实物资本与人力资本最佳配置的中国经济潜在增长率研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 22:06

  本文选题：潜在增长率 + 实物资本存量　； 参考：《华侨大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：自金融危机以来,我国的经济增长速度明显放缓。2011-2015年的GDP增长率分别为9.3%、7.7%、7.7%、7.4%和6.9%。与以往10%左右的高速增长相比,这些实际增长率可认为是中高速增长。然而,中高速增长只是一个相对概念,并未有明确的数量界定。随着我国经济发展进入新常态,新旧增长动力的转化尚未完成,一些不确定风险开始显现,我国经济下行压力依旧较大。那么,我国未来可实现的中高速增长率是多少呢?我国未来的增长潜能又有多大呢?潜在产出是一国各种资源充分利用条件下可达到的最大化产出,是实际产出的最大可能边界,据此计算得到的增长率为潜在增长率。对潜在增长率的测度不仅能准确地判断经济体运行的最大限度,更能为未来宏观经济发展战略以及经济政策的制定提供决策参考。本文在对潜在增长率估算的相关文献进行梳理的基础上,选择了生产函数法来测算我国的潜在增长率。值得注意的是,人力资本积累是经济持续增长的决定性因素和产业发展的真正源泉和动力,而我国的人力资本在过去的三十多年间也经历了显著地提升。因此,本文在测算时除了考虑传统的生产要素,如实物资本、劳动力和技术进步外,还加入人力资本。实物资本和人力资本作为两种重要的生产要素,其充分利用并不意味着两种要素的配置也达到合理状态。本文基于MRW生产函数模型通过数理推导证明,在两种资本总量之和不变的条件下,无论生产函数属于规模报酬不变、递增还是递减,实物资本与人力资本的最佳配置比例为二者的产出弹性之比。那么,最大化产出的极致状态是各种要素充分利用且达到最佳配置比例。生产要素利用率的估计本身较为复杂,为使问题简单化,本文假定在现有生产要素利用率条件下,当实物资本与人力资本达到最佳配置比例时达到的产出水平,定义为“潜在产出”,这种界定是对“最大化产出”概念含义的拓展和延伸,而实际产出对潜在产出的偏离就是潜在损失或效率损失。这是对以往利用生产函数法测算潜在增长率方法的一种全新的尝试。目前我国尚未有权威部门发布实物资本存量和人力资本存量的数据。由于各位学者采用的方法不同,估算结果存在较大的差异。本文采用了不同的方法重新估算了两种资本存量。针对实物资本,本文在数理推导折旧率、资本产出比、固定资本形成率与经济增长率关系的基础上,以国家统计局公布的10个投入产出表年份的折旧额数据为校准点,假定投入产出表年份间的各时段内采用平均折旧率,将估算起点设定在第一个投入产出表年份——1987年,然后向前反推过去年份、向后递推以后年份,同时估算各个时段的折旧率和资本存量。由于实现了校准点年份的折旧额与投入产出表数据的完全一致,从而确保了本文估算结果的可靠性。针对人力资本存量,本文沿用了成本加权法来估算,并做了两点改进:一是考虑到人力资本的人身依附性,客观上需要医疗保健来维持生命的健康和体力的充沛,需要自我学习或娱乐来保持知识和技能的更新,故将人力资本投资成本范围拓展为直接教育、医疗保健及文教娱乐支出;二是考虑到教育投资时滞,即成为拥有某种学历的劳动力花费的教育时间很长,故在估算过程中使用不同年龄阶段的劳动力的学历分布数据进行计算,更为客观地还原各学历层次劳动者的真实教育成本,反映了人力资本形成存在的时滞。基于上述估得的生产要素数据,本文从要素合理配置视角测算了我国1978-2011年间的潜在产出、潜在增长率及潜在损失。结果显示:劳均实物资本和劳均人力资本的产出弹性分别为0.655和0.2589,意味着两种资本的最佳配置比例为2.53,远远低于两种资本存量之比9.53。潜在产出曲线明显位于实际产出曲线之上且两条曲线的差距越来越大,说明潜在损失为正且绝对额越来越大。1978-2011年时段潜在损失累计达到469142.77亿元,占同期实际累计产出的15.33%。在此基础上,本文预测了我国2015-2020年间的潜在产出、潜在增长率及潜在损失,结果显示:2015-2020年间潜在增长率平均为6.44%,实际经济增长率平均为6.39%,比潜在增长率低0.05%,该期间的潜在损失累计达到520648.47亿元,比1978-2011时段多出51505.7亿元。这说明:如果两种资本继续保持以往的增长规律不变,两者之间的错配关系就会继续,由此造成的效率损失也会继续且损失会越来越大。已经形成的资本结构无法变更,只能在未来资本扩张的过程中逐步调整。为了减少两种资本错配的效率损失,本文最后从放缓实物资本投资速度优化投资结构、加大教育投资力度拓宽经费来源、增加医疗保健投入改善城乡医疗服务、加强研发投入和人才培养提高全要素生产率等方面提出了相应的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis, the growth rate of China's economic growth has slowed down significantly in.2011-2015 years, and the growth rate of GDP is 9.3%, 7.7%, 7.7%, 7.4% and 6.9%., compared with the high speed growth of the past 10%, these actual growth rates can be considered as medium and high speed growth. However, the growth of middle and high speed is only a relative concept, with no definite quantitative definition. China's economic development has entered a new normal state, the transformation of the old and new growth power has not been completed, some uncertain risks are beginning to appear, and the economic downward pressure of our country is still larger. Then, what is the high rate of growth in China in the future? How big is our future growth potential? The potential output is the full utilization of various resources of a country The maximum possible output is the maximum possible boundary of the actual output, and the calculated growth rate is the potential growth rate. The measurement of the potential growth rate can not only accurately judge the maximum operation limit of the economy, but also provide the decision reference for the future macro economic development strategy and the economic policy formulation. On the basis of the related literature of potential growth rate estimation, the production function method is selected to measure the potential growth rate of China. It is worth noting that human capital accumulation is the decisive factor of sustained economic growth and the real source and power of industrial development, and human capital in China has also experienced the past more than 30 years. Therefore, in this paper, in addition to considering the traditional factors of production, such as physical capital, labor and technological progress, but also the addition of human capital. Physical capital and human capital as two important factors of production, its full use does not mean that the allocation of the two elements is also reasonable. This paper is based on the MRW production letter. By mathematical derivation, it is proved by mathematical derivation that, under the condition of the sum of the two capital amounts, the ratio of the production function to the scale is constant, increasing or decreasing, and the ratio of the optimal allocation of the physical capital to the human capital is the ratio of the output elasticity of the two. In order to simplify the problem, this paper assumes that the level of output reached when the actual capital and human capital reaches the optimal allocation ratio is defined as "potential output", which is a definition of the concept of "maximum output". The deviation of the actual output to the potential output is the potential loss or the loss of efficiency. This is a new attempt to measure the potential growth rate method using the production function method in the past. At present, there is no data on the stock of physical capital and the stock of human capital by authoritative departments in our country. In this paper, based on the relationship between the depreciation rate, the ratio of capital output, the rate of fixed capital formation and the rate of economic growth, the depreciation of the 10 input-output tables published by the national unified planning bureau, based on the different methods, is used to reestimate the two kinds of capital stock. The data is a calibration point, assuming the average depreciation rate in each period of the annual input and output table, setting the estimated starting point on the first input-output table year - 1987, then pushing forward the past years, recursion back years, and estimating the depreciation rate and capital stock at each time period. In accordance with the stock of human capital, this paper uses the cost weighting method to estimate and make two improvements. First, the human capital is considered to be dependent on human body and needs medical care to maintain the health and physical strength of life. In order to self study or entertain to maintain the update of knowledge and skills, the cost range of human capital investment is extended to direct education, medical care and entertainment expenditure. Two, considering the time lag of education investment, that is, it is a long time to become a labor cost with a certain degree of Education, so in the process of estimating the use of different age stages. Based on the above estimated production factor data, this paper calculates the potential output, potential growth rate and potential loss of China from the angle of rational allocation of factors for 1978-2011 years. The results show that the output elasticity of the labor capital and the labor capital is 0.655 and 0.2589 respectively, which means that the optimal allocation ratio of two kinds of capital is 2.53, which is far below the 9.53. potential output curve of the two capital stock, which is obviously on the actual output curve and the gap between the two curves is increasing, indicating the potential loss. The potential loss of positive and absolute greater.1978-2011 years has reached 46 trillion and 914 billion 277 million yuan, which accounts for the 15.33%. of the actual cumulative output in the same period. This paper predicts the potential output, potential growth rate and potential loss for 2015-2020 years in China. The result shows that the average growth rate of 2015-2020 years is 6.44%, and the real economic growth is in the period of 2015-2020 years. The average rate is 6.39%, which is 0.05% lower than the potential growth rate. The potential loss in this period is 52 trillion and 64 billion 847 million yuan, which is 5 trillion and 150 billion 570 million yuan more than the 1978-2011 period. This shows that if the two kinds of capital continue to remain unchanged, the mismatch between the two will continue, and the resulting efficiency loss will continue and the loss will become more. In order to reduce the efficiency loss of two kinds of capital mismatch, this paper finally optimizes the investment structure of the investment speed of the physical capital, enlarges the investment of education and widens the source of funds, and increases the health care investment to improve the urban and rural medical treatment. Services, strengthening R & D investment and personnel training, improving total factor productivity and so on.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.1;F224
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本文编号：2063169