基于“区域—港口—货流”的世界集装箱海运网络复杂性相关研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 13:53

本文选题：班轮运输 + 海运网络　；参考：《大连海事大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：集装箱班轮运输承担约70%的世界海运贸易价值量,是世界经济发展的重要支撑。由集装箱班轮运输活动形成的世界集装箱海运网络是国际货物贸易格局的现实反映,然而,目前世界集装箱海运网络相关实证研究还较为缺乏。世界集装箱海运网络具有真实的地理空间属性,港口是网络中的最小节点单元,而一定地理范围内的区域港口体系则可视为更大的节点单元,世界港口之间、区域港口体系之间的集装箱海运货流联系分别形成了微观、宏观层面的世界集装箱海上运输格局。因此,将世界集装箱海运网络看作一个系统,港口、海运区域、集装箱海运货流便是该系统中最根本、且相互紧密关联的三方面构成要素。本文以世界集装箱班轮运输企业的航线服务网络为切入点,结合复杂网络视角和地理空间视角,从网络拓扑结构和货流空间分布格局两个维度揭示世界集装箱海运网络的复杂特性,以期为中国沿海集装箱港口发展、中国国际集装箱班轮企业的全球运力布局提供参考,从而服务于中国海运业的长远发展。围绕上述研究目的,主要做了以下工作：(1)在合理划分世界海运区域的基础上,通过分析2001-2012年各海运区域的集装箱货流量发展、在世界集装箱海运网络拓扑结构中的中心程度、以及在网络货流空间分布格局中的主导性,对世界集装箱海运网络的区域发展不平衡性及其演化进行了研究。结果显示：当前研究普遍采用的集装箱货流量指标不能够准确反映一个海运区域集装箱班轮运输的真实发展水平。研究期间内,东亚区域的集装箱货流量虽然显著领先于其他海运区域,但其在世界集装箱海运网络中的地位上升幅度滞后于货流量的发展速度；北美西岸、北美东岸和澳大拉西亚区域在世界集装箱海运网络中的地位下降幅度最大;度处于世界集装箱海运网络边缘位置的南美北岸、西非、南部非洲、南美东岸和西亚区域已成为新兴海运区域。(2)通过分析全球各港口在世界集装箱海运网络拓扑结构中的中心程度,对世界集装箱海运网络的拓扑结构中心性进行了研究。基于度、介数和接近中心度指标,以及各指标与港口集装箱吞吐量的相关性,提出系统性衡量港口在世界集装箱海运网络拓扑结构中地位的综合中心度指数。根据综合中心度指数,全球港口在世界集装箱海运网络拓扑结构中的中心程度可划分为高于0.2、0.15-0.2和低于0.15三个层级,各层级港口占世界港口总数的比例分别为3.18%、14.00%和82.82%。其中,鹿特丹港、安特卫普港和上海港具有最高的综合中心度,位于世界集装箱海运网络拓扑结构的中心位置。同时,通过分析港口的综合中心度和集装箱吞吐量的位序差异,认为综合中心度指数和集装箱吞吐量指标在港口的集装箱海运网络重要性评价上具有互补性。(3)通过分析港口的空间货流组织模式、区域港口体系的货流分布集中度、以及港口的首位货流联系,探析了世界集装箱海运网络货流空间分布格局的复杂特性。港口的空间货流组织模式是指港口集装箱海运货流在自身所处海运区域内部和外部港口之间的分配,其模式可划分为外向型、均衡型和内向型。分析结果显示：对于一定货流规模以上的港口而言,外向型港口比内向型、均衡型港口在世界集装箱海运网络中更具影响力。基于赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数,分析了世界各海运区域的总货流、区域内部货流、区域外部货流在区域内部港口分布的集中程度,发现导致海运区域总货流分布集聚的原因主要在于区域外部货流被区域内少数港口垄断。根据首位货流联系对世界港口进行社团划分,进而得到世界集装箱海运网络的五个港口层级。其中,上海港、鹿特丹港、纽约港、瓦伦西亚港、桑托斯港、陶朗加港等位于社团结构中心的30个港口构成了网络的第一层级。(4)基于显著流分析法,提出分析两个区域(或国家)之间集装箱海运货流空间分布格局脆弱性的一种定量分析方法。进而,基于中国与世界各海运区域之间集装箱显著货流的分布,分析了中国与各海运区域之间集装箱海运联系对各海运区域港口和相应中国港口的依赖程度,以及由此导致的中国国际集装箱海运货流空间分布格局的脆弱程度。同时,根据中国国际集装箱海运货流对相关中国港口的综合依赖度,将中国国际集装箱港口划分为超核心港、次核心港和非核心港三个层级。其中,上海港、深圳港、宁波-舟山港和香港港为超核心港,广州港、厦门港、青岛港、天津港和大连港为次核心港,其余为非核心港。
[Abstract]:Container liner transportation takes about 70% of the world shipping trade value, which is an important support for the development of world economy. The world container shipping network formed by container liner transportation is the realistic reflection of the international trade pattern of goods. However, the world container shipping network correlation empirical research is still short of the world container. The marine network has the real geographical spatial attribute, the port is the smallest node unit in the network, and the regional port system in a certain geographical range can be regarded as the larger node unit. The container shipping links between the ports in the world and the regional port system form the micro, the macro level of the world container shipping. Therefore, the world container shipping network is regarded as a system, port, sea area, container shipping flow is the most fundamental and closely related three components of the system. This paper takes the service network of the world container liner shipping enterprise as the breakthrough point, combining the complex network perspective and geographical space. Angle, from the two dimensions of network topology and spatial distribution pattern, the complex characteristics of the world container shipping network are revealed. It is expected to provide reference for the development of China's coastal container ports and the global capacity layout of Chinese international container liner enterprises, thus serving the long-term development of China's marine transport industry. The following work should be done: (1) on the basis of the rational division of the world shipping area, by analyzing the development of the container cargo flow in the 2001-2012 year marine regions, the central degree in the world container shipping network topology and the dominance in the spatial distribution pattern of the network cargo flow, the region of the world container shipping network is distributed. In the study period, the volume of container cargo in East Asia is significantly higher than that in other maritime areas, but it is in the world. The position in the packing sea network is lagging behind the speed of the flow of cargo; the West Bank of North America, the east coast of North America and the Australasia region have the largest decline in the world container shipping network, and the North Bank of South America, West Africa, South Africa, South America and Western Asia at the edge of the world container shipping network. It has become a new marine area. (2) by analyzing the central degree of the global ports in the world container shipping network topology, the center of the topological structure of the world container shipping network is studied. Based on the degree, the index and the close center degree index, and the correlation between the indexes and the port container throughput, the system is put forward. The comprehensive centrality index of the port's status in the world container shipping network topology. According to the comprehensive centrality index, the central degree of global ports in the world container shipping network topology can be divided into higher than 0.2,0.15-0.2 and three levels below 0.15, and the proportion of the ports at each level to the total number of ports in the world, respectively. For 3.18%, 14% and 82.82%., Rotterdam port, Antwerp port and Shanghai port have the highest comprehensive centrality. It is located at the center of the world container shipping network topology. At the same time, the comprehensive centrality index and container throughput index are considered by analyzing the comprehensive center degree of the port and the sequence difference of container throughput. The importance evaluation of container shipping network in port has complementarity. (3) by analyzing the spatial distribution pattern of the port, the concentration of cargo flow in the regional port system and the first cargo flow connection in the port, the complex characteristics of the spatial distribution pattern of the container shipping space in the world container shipping network are analyzed. The organization model of the port space cargo flow is analyzed. The model can be divided into export-oriented, balanced and introverted. The analysis results show that the outgoing port is more than the introverted port and the equilibrium port is more in the world container shipping network for a certain port over the size of a certain volume of cargo. Based on the Hefen Dahl Hirshman index, the total cargo flow in the world shipping area, the internal cargo flow in the region and the concentration degree of the distribution of the regional external cargo in the region are analyzed. It is found that the main cause of the distribution of the total cargo flow in the sea area is that the foreign goods flow in the region is monopolized by a few ports in the region. The flow of goods is linked to the division of the world's ports and then the five port levels of the world container shipping network. Among them, 30 ports, such as Shanghai port, Rotterdam port, New York port, Valencia port, Santos port, and pottery port, constitute the first level of the network. (4) based on the salient flow analysis, the points are put forward. An analysis is made of the quantitative analysis of the spatial distribution pattern of container shipping flow between two regions (or countries). Based on the distribution of the significant container cargo flow between China and the sea regions in the world, this paper analyzes the dependence of the container shipping line between China and the marine regions on the ports and the corresponding Chinese ports. Lai Chengdu, and the resulting fragility of the spatial distribution pattern of China International Container Shipping flow. At the same time, according to the comprehensive dependence of the international container shipping flow on the relevant Chinese ports, the Chinese international container ports are divided into three levels, the core port and the non core port, including the Shanghai port and the Shenzhen. Hong Kong, Ningbo Zhoushan port and Hongkong port are super core ports, Guangzhou port, Xiamen port, Qingdao port, Tianjin port and Dalian Port are the sub core ports, and the rest are non core ports.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F551

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