冷战后东亚地区的军备发展状况研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 01:19

本文选题：东亚地区 + 军费开支　；参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：冷战结束以后,由于两极格局对抗的消失,全球总体军事形势趋于缓和,东亚地区成为世界上少有的几个和平地区之一,经济社会发展引人瞩目。但与此同时,东亚地区的冷战旧秩序在某些方面并没有实质性的转变,区域安全合作发展缓慢,安全困境依然存在,东亚多国(地区)的军费开支及军备采购呈现持续上涨的态势。伴随着东亚地区国际格局的重大变化,加上历史与现实的原因,各国进一步加快了国防现代化的步伐,持续增加军费开支,大力扩充军备。特别是近些年来,由于各国提高军备技术水平和质量的速度明显加快,国际社会对东亚军事力量的发展倍加关注,关于东亚地区军备竞赛的观点甚为流行,"中国威胁论"也一度甚嚣尘上。在此背景下,采用科学的态度与方法对冷战后东亚地区国家的军备发展状况进行系统研究,具有重大的理论意义与现实意义。我们需要对东亚地区的军备发展状况作出更准确和细致的解析,以期得出更全面、更客观的结论。本文立足于历史研究,同时强调理论联系实际,主要采用定量和定性相结合的分析方法,以研究冷战后东亚地区的军备发展为主旨,以各国军费开支和主要常规武器转让情况为切入点,深入分析总结冷战后东亚地区军备发展的趋势、特点以及现状和动因,并在此基础上,对东亚地区的安全形势和发展趋势进行一些思考。文章共分为六个部分,包括绪论、四个章节和结论。第一部分阐述了冷战后东亚地区军备发展状况研究的基本问题。一是本文的选题背景及意义:二是就冷战后东亚地区的军备发展状况研究作国内外学术界的研究现状阐述分析;三是本文的研究思路和方法;四是本文研究的创新之处和不足之处。第二部分对冷战后东亚地区的军费开支发展态势进行概述分析。主要有两个方面,一是军费绝对量,按全球及东亚地区、东亚各国以及汇率的影响进行分述;二是军费相对量,它包括军费开支占GDP的比例、军人人均军费和全球军事化指数等内容。第三部分对冷战后东亚地区的武器转让发展态势进行论述解析。主要分为武器进口和武器出口两部分,着重对武器进口进行分析,具体分为全球的概况、东亚地区以及各国的进口量情况、各武器类型的比重和武器供应国几部分论述。由于东亚地区并不是主要的武器供应地,对于武器出口情况只作简要说明。第四部分介绍了当前东亚地区军备发展的现状,主要包括军费开支、武装力量的规模以及武器装备的概况等内容。冷战结束以来,在大量的军费支撑下,通过武器转让以及自主研发等方式,经过20多年的发展,东亚各国的军备技术水平和质量迅速发展,军事实力均得到了明显增强。第五部分探讨了冷战后东亚地区军备发展的动因,主要围绕如下几个问题展开研究:一是安全困境,由于东亚社会的无政府特征,使各国认为获得安全的途径是"自助"而不是合作,各国通过"自助"追求安全的同时必然给相关国家带来压力,因此各国在追求安全的同时不可避免地陷入安全困境,二是内外因素的综合作用,东亚地区的军备发展有源于安全困境之下外部刺激的竞争性,也有来自于内在需求的合理性,包括经济的增长、武器装备周期性的更新换代、军事生产的制度化、国内政治活动以及国内安全威胁等因素,同时技术强制性通过内外两个层面产生着影响。第六部分是全文的结论。首先对冷战后东亚地区各国的军备发展情况,主要是军费开支和主要常规武器转让情况进行了一个回顾和评析,然后尝试得出本文的几点结论:一是东亚地区整体而言尚不存在传统的"军备竞赛",其军备发展是多重因素综合作用的结果,不过在局部地区确是出现了某种程度的军备竞争趋势;二是中国军备的较快增长是与中国国力发展相适应的,中国的和平外交方针与防御性国防战略决定了中国的军备发展并不必然导致东亚地区的军备竞赛;三是未来东亚地区军备发展的竞争性可能会有所加剧,但还是处于可控水平,地区安全和稳定依然是主要的发展趋势。
[Abstract]:After the end of the cold war, the overall military situation in the world has tended to ease, and the East Asia has become one of the few peaceful regions in the world, and the economic and social development is attracting attention. But at the same time, the old order of the cold war in East Asia has not changed substantially in some respects, and the development of regional security cooperation is slow. Slowly, the security dilemma still exists, and the military expenditure and arms purchase of many countries in East Asia have continued to rise. With the major changes in the international pattern of East Asia and the historical and practical reasons, countries have further accelerated the pace of national defense modernization, continued to increase military expenditure and vigorously expanded armaments. Especially in recent years. The international community has paid more attention to the development of East Asian military forces, and the view of the arms race in East Asia is very popular and the "Chinese threat theory" has been on the ground. In this context, the scientific attitude and method have been adopted in the army of East Asian countries after the cold war. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out systematic research on the development of preparation. We need to make a more accurate and detailed analysis of the development of armaments in East Asia in order to draw a more comprehensive and objective conclusion. This article is based on historical research, and emphasizes the combination of theory and Practice, mainly by combining quantitative and qualitative methods. The analysis method, based on the study of armament development in East Asia after the cold war, makes a thorough analysis and summary of the trend, characteristics, status and motivation of armament development in East Asia after the cold war, and on this basis, the security situation and trend of development in East Asia are carried out on the basis of the analysis of the military expenditure and the transfer of the main conventional weapons in the post Cold War countries. The article is divided into six parts, including the introduction, four chapters and conclusions. The first part expounds the basic problems of the research on the development of armaments in East Asia after the cold war. The first is the background and significance of this article: two, on the status of armament development in East Asia after the cold war. The three is the research ideas and methods of this article; four is the innovation and shortcomings of this study. The second part of the military expenditure development situation in East Asia after the cold war is summarized and analyzed. There are two aspects, one is the absolute amount of military expenditure, the influence of the global and East Asia, the East Asian countries and the exchange rate, and the two is the military expenditure phase. It includes the proportion of military expenditure in GDP, the per capita military charge and the global militarization index. The third part discusses the development trend of arms transfer in East Asia after the cold war. It is divided into two parts: arms import and arms export. It focuses on the analysis of the import of weapons, which is divided into a global situation, East Asia. In the fourth part, the current status of armament development in East Asia is introduced, including military expenditure and the scale of armed forces. Since the end of the cold war, with the support of a large number of military expenses, through the development of arms transfer and independent research and development, after 20 years' development, the armament technology level and quality of East Asian countries have developed rapidly, and the military strength has been greatly enhanced. The fifth part discusses the development of armament in East Asia after the cold war. The cause, mainly around the following problems: first, the security dilemma, because of the anarchy characteristics of the East Asian society, so that all countries think that the way to obtain security is "self-help" rather than cooperation. All countries will inevitably bring pressure to the relevant countries through "self-help" pursuit of security, so each country is unavoidable in pursuit of security. In the security dilemma, two is the comprehensive effect of internal and external factors. The development of armaments in East Asia is competitive with external stimuli under the security dilemma, and the rationality of internal demand, including economic growth, periodic renewal of weapons and equipment, institutionalization of military production, domestic political activities and domestic security threats. The sixth part is the conclusion of the full text. First, it reviews and evaluates the military expenditure and the transfer of the main conventional weapons in East Asia after the cold war, and then attempts to draw some conclusions in this paper: one is East Asia. There is no traditional "arms race" in the region as a whole, and its armament development is the result of multiple factors, but in some areas there is a certain degree of military competition trend. Two, the rapid growth of China's armaments is adapted to the development of China's national strength, and China's peaceful diplomatic policy and defensive national defense strategy. It is determined that China's armament development does not necessarily lead to an arms race in East Asia. Three, the competitiveness of armament development in East Asia may be intensified in the future, but it is still at a controllable level, and regional security and stability are still the main trend of development.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：E15

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