中国对挪威新鲜三文鱼的需求受收入、双边汇率和价格冲击的影响研究

【摘要】 随着中国城市中上层阶级收入水平达到新的高度,食用进口食物的风潮正在涌现。与此同时,人们用于水产品的花销正在上升,主要原因是对高质量水产品需求的上升。本论文分析了收入变化对中国居民对于挪威大西洋新鲜三文鱼需求的影响,并且试图探索两者之间是否有因果关系。本论文研究发现需求具有高收入弹性,其中短期弹性为4.81,长期弹性为1.43.当把价格和汇率因素纳入到研究之中,短期收入弹性变为2.55,长期收入弹性为1.47.上述两个例子显示,在收入变量受到冲击后,回归均衡状态的调整速度变缓慢。汇率似乎没有对需求造成太大影响,尽管两者呈负相关；需求对价格变化相对缺乏弹性。总体来说,变量之间的因果关系不明显。相比中国大陆,日本和香港市场的需求似乎更多是源自收入、汇率和价格因素。原因可能是市场条件的差异以及三文鱼在各个市场中的不同定位。
 
【关键词】 大西洋新鲜三文鱼； 需求的收入弹性； 需求的自价格弹性； 双边汇率； 因果关系； 误差校正；

I. Introduction

China has been an importer of Norwegian salmon since the mid-1980s and its demandhas increased steadily, particularly in recent years. Still, few studies have attempted todetermine the effect different factors have on demand. This paper aims to quantify theeffect of income, exchange rate and price shocks on changes in the Chinese demand for salmon.

On the demand side； the world's market for farmed salmon is a highly international. Onthe supply side, this industry is dominated by a few major exporters such as Norway,Chile, Faroe Island, Scotland, the United States, and Canada. These countries produceeight different salmon species, but Atlantic salmon is considered the most high-end.Norway is the dominant producer and exporter of this specie. Fresh Atlantic salmon[Salmo salar) refers to farmed salmon that is not frozen or prepared in other ways suchas smoked, canned etc. It is exported both whole, and in fillet form. However, wholeform represents about three quarters of its export (Ma & Xiao, 2010]. Norway is thefocus of this thesis because Norwegian exporters have traditionally had a 90-98 percentmarket share on the Chinese market for fresh salmon. Other exporters are thereforerelatively insignificant.

A. Relevance of Thesis

Several reports and studies have found that Chinese households' demand for bothaquatic products and demand for imported food products tend to be positivelycorrelated with level of income and income growth. Still, there are no studiesconfirming whether or not this is the case for imported salmon. Most studies on salmonin China focus on describing the end user or the market characteristics. Several reportsalso focus on the effect of marketing and promotion efforts, such as those made by theNSEC. These reports are not based on empirical research, and their main objective isoften to identify market opportunities. Several of these mention income's effect ondemand, but the findings are not based on data. The empirical research on salmon inChina is therefore now practically non-existent. In general； much of the empiricalresearch on the salmon markets aim to determine the effect of different policy measureson prices, supply and demand through estimating elasticities. Policy measures that arefrequently studied are import tariffs, and non-tariff barriers. There are also someempirical papers studying income effects on demand for salmon. However, none ofthese papers include a study of the Chinese market.

In addition to income effects, this thesis will study exchange rate fluctuations and price,and how they affect demand. Price has traditionally not been an issue because freshNorwegian Atlantic salmon is considered a premium with few substitutes in the Chinesemarket. However, in the past year other exporters have increased their share in thismarket substantially. Furthermore, China is, with help from foreign exporters, alsoestablishing a few domestic salmon farms. The implication is that substitutes are beingintroduced to the market, and that might influence the own-price elasticity. Dependingon the exchange rate pass-through on salmon prices, fluctuations in exchange rate maythereby also have a stronger effect on demand in the future. However, this topic isbeyond the scope of this thesis.

B. Motivation

The main motivation behind this thesis is to be able to utilize the knowledge acquiredabout China, economics, and research during the EMA in Chinese Economy to study oneof Norway's major trade commodities in China. A secondary motivation is that theseafood industry has long been one of my great interests. There are several reasons forthis. From a Norwegian perspective, the fisheries industry is important because of itscontribution to the national economy, and also because of its cultural significance. MostNorwegians have grown up with an abundance of seafood from stores or fresh marketsin the winter, and preferably self-caught during our days off in summer. Internationally,Norway has gained a solid reputation as a seafood nation of the highest caliber andquality. Although several species of Norwegian fish are exported abroad, fresh Atlanticsalmon is probably most well known outside of the Norwegian borders. In manycountries, salmon is synonymous with Norway.

II. Literature Review

A. Introduction

Several factors should be considered when analyzing market demand for fisheriesproducts such as salmon. Lena Westlund [2005) lists many in a FAO Fisheries circularthat compares different methods for analyzing and forecasting demand for fish andfisheries products. Delgado and McKenna (1997), Ye (1999], and Wessells andAnderson [1992) suggests structural change factors such as traditions, habits； pastconsumption patterns, tastes, experience, perceptions, choice and preference to analyzeand forecast demand for fish. According to Westlund (2005), theses structural changesare difficult to detect, especially in China where they are closely correlated with changesin gross national product [GNP) and thereby difficult to distinguish from responses toincome changes (Huang and Bouis, 1996). Other factors that may influence demand arehousehold size (Ye, 1999) [Capps and Havlicek, 1987), ethnicity and degree ofurbanization [Capps and Havlicek, 1987〕，geographic region such as urban vs. rural andcoast vs. inland (Capps and Havlicek, 1987] [DeVoretz and Salvanes； 1994]； and familyage grouping, household head's sex, education, foreign birth status and spouse at home[DeVoretz and Salvanes, 1994). Population growth rate； as well as advertising budgetalso appears often as important influencing factors (Delgado, Corbois and Rosegrant,2000) (Wessells and Anderson； 1992). Supply is also mentioned frequently [Kabir andRidler,1984) (Kinnucan and Wessells, 1997). However, this thesis considers the supplyfrom Norwegian exporters as fixed due to biomass [previously, feed quota) that posesrestriction on the quantity produced, which lowers Norwegian salmon's supply-elasticity. It will therefore not be studied in this thesis. Prices of substitute products arealso mentioned frequently [Delgado, Corbois and Rosegrant, 2000) (Delgado andMcKenna, 1997)〔Ye, 1999). However, previous studies conclude that there are norelevant substitutes for Norwegian salmon, except for fresh salmon from sources otherthan Norway. Cross-price elasticity will therefore not be included in this analysis. Afactor that will be included is seasonality. (Capps and Havlicek, 1987] (DeVoretz andSalvanes, 1994). Wessells and Wielen〔1992) found that seasonality had an influence onfish demand in Japan. This is a market that may have similar traits to the Chinesemarket. Lastly, disposable income and price are also factors that will be included, asthese appear in several papers as the most important factors influencing demand forfisheries products (Delgado and McKenna, 1997) (Ye, 1999) (Capps and Havlicek, 1987)[Delgado, Corbois and Rosegrant, 2000).

B. The Chinese Seafood Market

The Chinese fisheries industry has great historical as well as cultural importance. Foodis strongly related to culture and tradition in China, and fish is particularly importantbecause its pronunciation is similar to the pronunciation of surpluses. Fish is thereforeconsidered a symbol of prosperity. Demand for seafood is therefore generally higheraround important holidays such as the Chinese New Year and the mid-Autumn festival(Bj0rgo, 2011b).

Today, China is one of the world's largest seafood markets. In general, urban householdsconsume much more seafood than rural households. Statistics from China StatisticalYearbook (1996-2011) shows that in 2009 per capita consumption of aquatic productsin urban areas was estimated to be 14.85 kg, compared to only 5.15 kg in rural areas.The majority of seafood consumed in China is produced domestically. Chinese tend toprefer fresh live, to fresh chilled or frozen fish, which serves as an imported fisheries products. Imported products therefore only constitute a relativelysmall part of the Chinese seafood consumption. Still, there has been an increasing focuson COO as well as quality and food safety in urban areas in recent years (Seafish andFood from Britain [SFB], 2007〕, which has led to an increase in demand for importedaquatic products. imported fisheries products. Imported products therefore only constitute a relativelysmall part of the Chinese seafood consumption. Still, there has been an increasing focuson COO as well as quality and food safety in urban areas in recent years (Seafish and Food from Britain [SFB], 2007〕, which has led to an increase in demand for importedaquatic products. The domestic seafood market cannot be regarded as the same market as importedseafood products because domestic Chinese aquatic products are considered a necessityin urban areas. Imported seafood is in general regarded as premium, or luxury foods,thus the markets must be analyzed separately.

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