非洲市场上中国与荷兰投资者的风险认知比较

【摘要】 本文有助于研究特定国家投资者在非洲投资的风险认知差异这一金融研究。在本文中,将对比分别为中国和荷兰的政策性银行和机构进行非洲投资的中国与荷兰投资者的风险认知。现有文献指出,中西方投资者对各种风险的认识不同。然而在中国与荷兰投资者在非洲市场的风险认知方面,没有结论性研究。笔者通过调查结果的数据分析,研究了中国与荷兰的金融机构投资者在非洲进行投资时,在风险认知上有何不同。来自四个不同金融机构的18名荷兰投资者和15名中国投资者在利式态度量表上排列了26种风险因素。通过下面的分布拟合法,两个样本均按重要程度排列这些风险因素。结果显示,尽管两个样本的风险认知具有各种相似性,在重要风险的排列上存在本质上的不同。中国投资者认为政治风险,例如冲突、政府的稳定性和官僚素质以及民族信仰矛盾等非常重要。荷兰投资者则认为项目风险、企业管理、金融项目风险以及环境和社会风险很重要。两个样本在风险认知上的相似性有：都认为腐败风险一般重要,环境和社会风险很重要,国家的经济和金融风险不太重要。研究表明,基于对风险认知存在相似性,在非洲市场的合作具有共同基础。
 
【关键词】 风险认知； 中国； 荷兰； 外国直接投资； 非洲；

Chapter 1: Introduction

1 . 1 Issue Indication

In the light of its past thirty years fast economic development and opening up process, theeconomic policies of the People Republic of China are increasingly attracting the interest fromscholars and policymakers. From a neglectable amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at thetime Deng Xiaoping initiated the opening up policies in 1978, the investments in China haveincreased to USD 105.7 billion in 2010 (World Bank Data). Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI) on the other hand, has received much less attention as it is significantly smaller thanChina's inward FDI. The inflow and outflow ratio was 6.4 to 1 in 2005 (United Nations, 2005).However, since the start of the twenty first century, China's OFDI has been playing a bigger role.During the period of 1994-1999, China's outward investment reached an annual average levelof USD 2.2 billion, and accounted for 3.4 percent of outflows from developing countries. In2005, it jumped fivefold to 11.3 billion and accounted for 9.6 percent of outflows fromdeveloping countries (Cheung & Qian, The Empirics of China's Outward Direct Investment,2008). Combining this trend with its trade surplus, China is expected to become an increasinglyimportant player in the international capital market.

China's expansion is global, but its substantial investments in Africa have particularly led tosome debate. Scholars and policymakers disagree whether China's engagements in Africashould be celebrated or feared. Many question the motives underlying the investments andtheir implications for Africa's political and economic development (Brookes, 2007) (Manji &Marks, 2007). The model underlying China's activities in Africa is often referred to as "theBeijing consensus" (Rano, 2004), which Is China's answer to "the Washington consensus"(Williamson, 2002). A comparison of the models shows that the approaches to Africa aresubstantially different. Many academia have argued that the determinants of investment flowsgoing from China to Africa deviate from that of the Western countries (Cheung, de Haan, Qian,& Yu, 2011), (Asiedu, Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The role of Natural Resources, MarketSize, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability, 2006)； (Cheung & Qian, TheEmpirics of China's Outward Direct Investment, 2008). Differences in risk perceptions ofinvestors coming from different cultural backgrounds can be an underlying reason explainingthe variation in determinants. This thesis will focus on the risk perception of Chinese and Dutchinstitutions policy banks when investing in Africa. Hence, it is a comparative study.

Literature on risk perceptions describes if, how, and why risk perceptions differ among people.Analyzing risks of a potential investment is a complex matter to deal with, and includesobjective as well as subjective factors. Many scholars have found thatrisk perceptions differamong people from various cultural backgrounds (R. de Camprieu, J. Desbiens, and Y. Feique(2007), N.M. Ashkanasy and C.P. Wilderom (2000), and G. Hofstede(1984). As part of theirCultural Theory of Risk, Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky put forward that 'the role ofcultural ways of life in determining what states of affairs individuals see as worthy of takingrisks' cannot be ignored.

1.2 Issue Statement

In order to answer the aforementioned problem, the following problem statement is formulated:

"To what extent and in which way do risk perceptions of Dutch and Chinese policy banks differwhen they are seeking to invest in Africa?"

Chapter 2: Literature Review

The objective of the literature review is threefold. Firstly, a good understanding of the situationthat the participants of this study find themselves in has to be created, so that the data analysisis placed in a better context. Secondly, ideas of other scholars have to be discussed so aconceptual framework can be build. Therefore, this chapter starts to discuss FDI in Africa；zooming in on Chinese and Dutch FDI in the region. Next, risk factors and perceptions aredescribed.

2,1 FDI in Africa

We are determined to help Africa to develop and to play its full part in the global economy. Toachieve this, it is essential to mobilize private capital flows as well as to reverse the shamefuldecline in official development aid. We are particularly concerned to help promote investment —domestic as well as foreign- as a means of strengthening the supply side of the Africaneconomy' (Kofi Annan, 1999).

Kofi Annan expressed a trend that has been observed over the last years. Private capital andinvestments play a critical role in accelerating economic growth and development in Africa. Inaddition to being a significant source of long-term capital for infrastructure and otherdevelopments investments； FDI also stimulates job creation； skills, technology and knowledgetransfer, development of local suppliers and works as a catalyst for economic diversification(Ernst & Young, 2011). Generally, Africa is and has been perceived to be a risky continent toinvest in. Unstable governments, corruption and weak institutions are deterring FDI and arebelieved to be some of the reasons that Africa attracts less FDI than other developing areas.Ernst & Young's Africa attractiveness survey found that African and other emerging marketsinvestors share optimism about the trend of Africa's investment attractiveness, whiledeveloped nations feel that Africa's progress is in decline.

Since 1970, FDl in Africa have increased from a yearly average of USD 1.9 billion in 1983-1987to USD 6.0 billion in 1993-1997 (UNCTAD F. d.). In the period from 2000 to 2006； the amountsof FDl have again increasedcompared to the 1990-1996 period (The Africa Study Centre, 2008).Although more attention is focused on Africa investments and FDl is increasingly flowing to thecontinent it still accounts for only 5 percent of global FDL Compared to other developingcountries, FDl into Africa increased much less during these years. In the last decades； theregulatory frameworks for FDl have improved in Africa, through for example providing tax andother incentives for foreign investors. Other factors of the investment climate, such as the ruleof law, legal and other institutions, telecommunications, infrastructure and trade liberalizationare found to have improved as well (World Economic Forum, 1998).

Traditionally, few OECD countries such as France, Germany, the United States and the UnitedKingdom accounted most of total investments coming from this organization. Since thebeginning of the 1990s, Italy, Canada and the Netherlands have emerged as important sourcesof FDl in Africa. Other new investors include South Asian investors, among which the newlyindustrialized countries specifically (Odenthal & Zimny, 1999). During the 1986-1990 period,82.4 percent of FDl flowing to Africa came from developed countries. This percentage hasdecreased to 68 percent in the years 2002/2003. The developing countries accounted for 17.5and 27 percent respectively, while the contribution of Central and Eastern Europe alsoincreased from 0.1 to 5.0 percent (UNCTAD, 2003). As of 2010, developed countries stillrepresent the largest share of FDl inflow into the region.

2.2 Risk Factors

2.2.1 Introduction

Traditionally, nsk is believed to be one of the major factors deterring international capital flowsto Africa (Cheung, de Haan, Qian, & Yu, 2011). Much research has been done to assess whichrisks are specifically significant when investing in Africa. This section discusses the existingliterature on this topic, which will provide a basis for the conceptual framework of the primaryresearch of this thesis. Existing literature on the risks of investments in Africa cover both globalconcerns as well as China specific concerns. Attempts to address the differences have beenmade, but comparative studies have only scarcely been conducted. Firstly the literature on riskfactors as perceived by worldwide investors and institutions will be discussed. Following, anoverview of the literature on China specific risk perceptions when investing in Africa will begiven and discussed.

2.2.2 Global risk perceptions

Elizabeth Asiedu (2006) focused on factors influencing FDI flowing to Sub-Saharan Africa andfound (a.o.) that corruption and political instability have negative effects on investments, whilelow inflation and an efficient legal system promote FDI. These conclusions are based on ICRGdata； which provides a framework for country risks and there relative importance. Asiedu didnot take into account that risk perceptions among countries and cultures can differ but solelyfocused on to which countries FDI is flowing and what the characteristics (main risk) are ofthose countries. Significant correlation was found for the above mentioned risks. Four surveys,namely the World Business Environment (1999/2000), World Development Report (1996/1997),World Investment Report (1999/2000) and The Centre for Research into Economics and Financein Southern Africa have assessed factors that constrain FDI into Africa, Two major conclusionsrelevant for this thesis can be drawn from these surveys. All four surveys find that corruption isa major obstacle for FDI flowing into Africa. Furthermore, macro economic instability, includinginflation and exchange rate risk, and political instability are strong deterrents to FDI to Africa.Rogoff and Reinhart (2003) found that internal and external conflicts (i.e. wars) are much morelikely to occur in Africa than in other regions. The regional susceptibility to war index is 26.3%for Africa compared to 9.9% for the Western world. Furthermore, they found correlationbetween conflicts in Africa and FDf flowing to Africa. Onyeiwu and Shrestha (2004) confirm thesurvey results on macroeconomic instability. Their data suggests that high inflation and FDI arenegatively correlated. J.M.Luiz and H. Charalambous (2009) investigated the key elements thatSouth African financial services firms consider before directing FDI in Sub-Saharan Africanmarkets. Their findings based on semi-structured interview surveys suggest that countrygovernance and political risk (including corruption) and the economic environment and macro-economic performance of African countries are (a.o) the most important risk factors to takeinto account when investing in SSA.

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