后冷战时期美国东亚海权战略调整研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 05:22

本文关键词：后冷战时期美国东亚海权战略调整研究　出处：《山东大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海权是指一个国家对海洋的控制力和影响力,在21世纪的大国海洋政治博弈中发挥着战略性功能。在后冷战时期,随着东亚战略地位的不断上升,东亚海权的结构性矛盾日益突出,各国纷纷调整自身的海权战略。在此背景下,美国持续强化东亚海权战略的扩张性调整,加剧了东亚海洋政治的复杂性、敏感性和脆弱性。美国东亚海权战略的调整呈现出新取向:一是具有主动性,依据外部环境变化主动调整;二是具有扩张性,不断增加东亚的战略投入;三是具有引领性,竭力保持技术竞争优势;四是具有灵活性,对新兴大国采取既制衡又合作的复合型策略;五是具有不确定性,美国国内利益集团对东亚海权战略的博弈日益复杂难测。美国的战略调整反映了其对东亚海权的依赖度上升,同时对东亚海权战略生态的结构失衡出现了战略焦虑。笔者主要运用战略行为归因分析方法,解释了后冷战时期美国东亚海权战略扩张性调整的动力来源问题。本文认为,美国东亚海权战略的扩张性调整是其国内外三维动力相互交织、综合作用的结果,国际权力结构、国家身份需求以及外部不确定性为自变量,以美国东亚海权战略调整为因变量,建立了战略行为归因分析的新框架,并提出了三个研究假设:其一,霸权国的战略调整是一种基于权力竞争压力驱动的权力护持行为;其二,霸权国的战略调整是一种基于身份需求增长驱动的利益圈地行为;其三,霸权国的战略调整是一种基于不确定性张力驱动的风险投资行为。第一个假设强调霸权国的对外战略行为是国际权力变迁的结果。国际权力的结构变化是影响霸权国对外战略的直接动力,霸权国对国际权力结构变动高度敏感,国际权力变化越大,霸权国的战略压力也就越大,其调整自身战略行为的动力也就越强大。在新科技革命、全球化和市场化浪潮的共同作用下,国际权力结构出现变动,全球权力中心从大西洋向太平洋方向转移,东亚成为世界权力增长最快的地区。中国和平崛起使东亚形成了经济与安全中心相脱离的双中心治理结构,中美两国的国际公共产品供给竞争日趋加剧,对东亚经济整合与安全结构具有形塑作用。在海洋政治复杂性和碎片化的影响下,东亚各国致力于加快海军现代化进程,西太平洋海权战略生态系统发生结构性变化,区域海权关系出现重构。在权力转移时期,权力结构的变迁对美国东亚的海洋霸权构成了巨大的压力,成为美国东亚海权战略调整的外驱动力。第二个假设强调霸权国的身份对其战略行为具有塑造性。身份属性影响着国家战略利益的边界划定,霸权身份需求是影响霸权国战略的内在动力,对霸权国战略行为发挥激励功能。当国家产生身份依赖时,霸权国的身份需求越强烈,战略调整的内在动力也就越强大。美国是全球海洋主导国,这种角色身份是其自身地理、历史、理论、经济以及军事等多种条件因素长期共同塑造的。冷战后美国的身份需求集中在权力需求、荣誉和威望需求、经济需求、安全需求以及意识形态需求等五个方面,并保持不断增长。身份需求的增长推动了美国东亚海权战略的扩张性调整,其战略意图是在军事上确保制海权优势,控制东亚的海洋战略通道;经济上加速与东亚经济体互动,利用东亚经济增长,为美国经济发展提供动力;政治上强化与东亚盟国、伙伴国的联系,构建以美国为核心的支点网络,制衡新兴大国崛起,垄断海洋主导国地位,确保美国在东亚的海洋利益安全,其本质是继续利用有效海权,维护其全球海洋主导国的海洋霸权,实现自身身份需求的最大化。第三个假设强调外部不确定性对霸权国战略行为的影响。不确定性是影响霸权国战略行为的干扰性因素,具有双重性:一方面它是风险,可以产生巨大的安全张力,不确定性因素越多,霸权国面临的安全张力也就越大,其战略行为调整的动力也就越强大;另一方面它也具有战略投资价值,可以产生风险投资回报,高风险高收益,因而外部不确定性对战略调整发挥一种调控功能。东亚海域长期存在不确定性,具体表现在各国海军力量竞赛、海洋资源分配、海洋领土争端、海洋划界分歧以及非传统安全威胁上升等,是美国调整其东亚海权战略的干预力量。从风险角度上讲,不确定性因素极易成为东亚海洋冲突的潜在诱因,美国将面临被盟国绑架卷入东亚海洋冲突的可能。从投资价值来看,不确定性也是美国的一种战略杠杆,是美国要挟部分东亚国家的工具。美国利用东亚广泛存在的海洋不确定性,达到强化其在西太平洋的前沿存在,进而撬动东亚海权战略生态格局的战略目的。不确定性越多,美国获得合法性存在的理由也就越多;当不确定性减少时,美国会主观故意放大不确定性,借机炒作东亚海洋矛盾,以搅乱东亚海洋秩序,可以达到"火中取栗",增加风险投资回报的目的。美国东亚海权战略的扩张性调整既反映了美国借助海权维护海洋主导国家地位的战略意图,同时也反映出美国对新兴大国的海权崛起感到战略焦虑。对此,美国东亚海权战略的调整存在着双重意涵,一方面强调以实力制衡,另一方面也保持接触与合作。为继续保持东亚海权的竞争优势,美国东亚海权战略调整的矛头指向新兴大国,同时不断优化海权资源配置,提升海权能力水平,强化外交策略支持,持续深度介入东亚海洋争端,意图干预东亚海洋政治,扮演东亚的离岸平衡手角色,目的是维持全球海洋主导国身份,追求美国在东亚海洋事务的话语权,保障自身的东亚海洋利益。中国崛起是21世纪世界政治的最重大变化,但也对自身带来了双重压力,其一是维护自身海外利益的压力增大,其二是维护海洋安全秩序的国际责任压力也在增大。面对美国的东亚海权的战略调整,作为负责任的全球新兴大国,中国应该努力保持战略定力,灵活运用战略智慧,坚守和平发展理念,坚持奋发有为原则,积极发展强大海权,加快推进海洋强国战略实施,加速海军现代化建设,坚定维护国家海洋权益,构建更加平衡的新型大国海权关系,重构东亚海洋秩序,为东亚国家提供优质的国际公共产品。
[Abstract]:Sea power refers to a state control of the sea and influence, plays a strategic function in large marine political game in twenty-first Century. In the post Cold War period, with the strategic position of East Asia's rising Asian sea power structural contradictions have become increasingly prominent, countries have to adjust their strategy of sea power. Under this background. The United States continued to strengthen the expansion of adjustment of East Asian sea power strategy, exacerbated by the complexity of ocean politics in East Asia, sensitivity and vulnerability. The right to adjust the strategy of the United States in East Asia sea presents new trends: one is initiative, according to changes in the external environment of active adjustment; two is expansionary, increasing investment in East Asia; three is a leading technology, strive to maintain a competitive advantage; four is the flexibility of emerging powers to take composite strategy both balance and cooperation; five is uncertain, the domestic interest group The game of East Asian sea power strategy is increasingly complex and unpredictable. The strategic adjustment in the United States reflects its dependence on East Asian sea power degree rise, while the structure imbalance of East Asian sea power strategy of ecological strategy appeared anxiety. The author mainly uses strategic behavior attribution analysis method, explains the problem of adjusting the power source expansion strategy of American East Asian sea power after the cold war. This paper argues that the expansion of the strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power is the domestic and foreign three-dimensional dynamic intertwined, the comprehensive effect of the international power structure, national identity and external demand uncertainty as independent variables and the dependent variable to adjust the American East Asian sea power strategy, the new framework to establish a strategic behavior the attribution analysis, and puts forward three hypotheses: first, the strategic adjustment of hegemony is a protection of power power competition based on driving behavior; second, hegemony in the war A little adjustment is a kind of interest act to protect identity based driving demand growth; thirdly, strategic adjustment of hegemony is a kind of risk investment behavior driven uncertainty based on tension. The first hypothesis emphasizes the foreign strategic behavior of hegemony is the result of power. The change of the international structure change of international power is the impact of foreign direct power hegemony the strategy of hegemony, is highly sensitive to changes in the international power structure, the greater the change of international power, strategic pressure hegemony is also bigger, the power to adjust its own strategic behavior is more powerful. In the new technology revolution, the interaction of globalization and the market tide, the international power structure changes, global the center of power transfer from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, East Asia has become the world's fastest-growing power area. Chinese formed a peaceful rise of the East Asia economic and security center from the double The center of governance structure, the supply of public goods in China and the United States international competition aggravating, shaping effect on East Asian economic integration and security. In the structure has the effect of ocean political complexity and fragmentation, the East Asian countries are committed to accelerating the naval modernization process, structural changes in the Western Pacific sea power strategy ecological system, regional sea power relations reconstruction the transfer of power. In the period, changes of power structure of American maritime hegemony in East Asia poses great pressure, as the adjustment of America's East Asia strategy of sea power of the external driving force. The second hypothesis emphasizes the status of hegemony has shaped on its strategic behavior. Identity affects the demarcation of national strategic interests, the hegemony of identity demand is affecting internal power hegemony strategy, an incentive function of hegemony strategy behavior. When the national identity depends on the status of hegemony, Demand is strong, intrinsic motivation of strategic adjustment is also more powerful. The United States is the world's leading marine country, this kind of role identity is its own geography, history, theory, economy and military and other factors together for a long time. Shaping the United States after the cold war as demand concentrated in power demand, honor and prestige demand, economic demand five, safety requirements and ideological needs, and keep growing. Identity demand growth promotes the expansion of strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power, its strategic intent is to ensure that the advantages in the military, marine strategic channel control in East Asia; economic and East Asian economies interaction, with economic growth in East Asia. Provide the impetus for the economic development of the United States; strengthening political and East Asian allies, partners, support network construction with the United States as the core, balance the big emerging countries rise, the monopoly of marine The leading country status, to ensure that the United States in East Asia's maritime interests security, its essence is to effectively use sea power to maintain its global ocean leading country marine hegemony, to maximize their own identity needs. The third hypothesis emphasizes the influence of external uncertainty on the hegemony of strategic behavior. Uncertainty is the interference factors affecting hegemony strategic behavior, has a dual nature: on the one hand, it can produce huge security risk, tension, more uncertain factors, safety hegemony face tension is bigger, its dynamic adjustment of the strategic behavior is strong; on the other hand it also has strategic investment value, can produce the risk investment return. High risk and high return, so the external uncertainty play a regulatory function of strategic adjustment. The East Asian Seas long-term uncertainty, specifically in the naval power race, marine resources With the sea, territorial disputes, maritime delimitation disputes and non-traditional security threats are rising, is the United States to adjust its strategy in East Asia sea right intervention force. From the risk perspective, uncertainty factors are likely to become a potential cause of the East Asian Seas of the conflict, the United States will be involved in the kidnapping of allies in East Asian Seas conflict from the investment. The value point of view, the uncertainty of a strategic lever is the United States, the United States is threatening some of the tools of East Asian countries. The United States used in East Asia widespread marine uncertainty, to strengthen the frontier in the Western Pacific, and then move the strategic objective of East Asian sea power strategy ecological pattern. The more uncertain, the United States to obtain legitimacy the reason is also the more; when the uncertainty is reduced, the United States will enlarge the subjective uncertainty, took the opportunity to hype the East Asian Seas contradictions, to disrupt the East Asian maritime order, can be reached To gain profit in risk ", increase the risk of investment returns. The expansion of strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power not only reflects the intentions of the United States by sea right to maintain marine leading status of country strategy, but also reflects the emerging powers of sea power on the rise feel anxiety. The strategy, strategy of the United States the right to adjust the existence of East Asian Seas a double meaning, on the one hand to power balance, on the other hand, maintain contact and cooperation. In order to maintain the competitive advantage of East Asian sea power, adjust the American East Asian sea power strategy aimed at emerging powers, and the continuous optimization of sea power in the allocation of resources, enhance the ability of sea power level, support to strengthen diplomatic strategy, continuous depth in the East Asian maritime disputes, the intention of the East Asian Seas political intervention, play the role of East Asia offshore balancer, the objective is to maintain the global ocean leading status, the pursuit of the United States in East Asia maritime affairs words Right, to protect their own interests. The rise of the East Asian Seas Chinese is the most significant change of world politics in twenty-first Century, but also brought pressure on their own, one is to safeguard their own interests overseas pressure increases, the maintenance of international maritime security responsibility pressure order is also increasing. The strategic adjustment in the face of the American East Asian sea power and as a responsible global emerging powers, Chinese should strive to maintain a strategic concentration, flexible strategic wisdom, adhere to the concept of peaceful development, adhere to the principle of the positive development of the sea be enthusiastic and press on, strong power, to accelerate the implementation of marine power strategy, accelerate naval modernization, firmly safeguard national marine rights and interests, the construction of new sea power more balanced relationship the reconstruction of the East Asian Seas, in order to provide international public goods quality for East Asian countries.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D871.2

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