生育冲击、人口结构与商品房市场

发布时间：2018-01-05 05:28

本文关键词：生育冲击、人口结构与商品房市场　出处：《浙江大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1998年住房全面市场化改革以来,我国商品房市场在销售量和销售价格上均呈现出了大幅上涨的态势。这一期间,我国的人口结构正经历着“80后”逐步进入婚育期、人口红利的集中释放期以及城镇化的快速增长期,这些来自人口要素的冲击都将对商品房市场产生较大的影响。根据1998年后我国商品房市场的表现,本研究从生育冲击和人口结构转变的视角来探究人口这一驱动因素对我国商品房市场的影响。结合我国的现实背景,本文通过理论分析、规范分析和实证分析论证了不同代际生育水平、人口年龄结构以及人口空间结构如何影响商品房市场。本文主要的研究结论如下：第一,在财富代际转移的作用下,中年代的人口冲击及其较低的生育水平是是推动近年来房价上涨的重要影响因素。由于存在财富代际转移的可能,不同代际生育水平的变化将会对房价产生较大的影响。基于此,本研究构建了包含不同代际生育水平的世代交叠模型,从理论上分析代际生育水平的变化以及财富代际转移行为如何影响商品房价格。理论分析和实证研究结果均表明,中年代生育水平越低,转移到每个青年代个体的财富水平越高,这些财富会流入房地产市场并引发房价的上涨。第二,在人口年龄结构转变的过程中,现阶段橄榄型的人口年龄分布恰好是有利于商品房市场发展的人口结构,这是商品房市场的“人口红利”。基于微观数据和宏观数据的研究均表明：在总人口恒定的条件下,更少的少年人口会引发商品房销售量和销售价格的增长,而受老年人口多样化住房需求的影响,现阶段老年人口的少许增多不但不会抑制商品房市场的繁荣,反而会促进商品房销售量和销售价格的上涨。第三,人口空间结构中的城镇化水平和人口迁移均是城市商品房市场的推动因素。基于城市层面人口普查数据和统计数据的实证研究结果表明：城镇化率以及迁移人口占比会对商品房销售量和销售价格产生显著的正向影响,且商品房价格对人口迁移的弹性更大,能否吸纳更多外来人口将是未来城市商品房市场能否持续发展的重要筹码。本文的研究具有较强的理论意义和实践意义。在理论上,本研究拓宽了人口转变理论的研究视野,并构建了包含不同代际生育水平的世代交叠模型。在实践上,本文的研究一方面有助于理解我国商品房市场在过去一段时间内的快速发展,另一方面有利于把握我国商品房市场未来的发展脉络,这对政府、开发商以及个人购房者都具有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing market in 1998, both the sales volume and the selling price of the commercial housing market in our country have shown a trend of substantial increase. The population structure of our country is going through the period of marriage and childbearing, the concentrated release of population dividend and the rapid growth of urbanization. These impacts from population factors will have a greater impact on the commercial housing market. According to the performance of China's commercial housing market after 1998. From the perspective of fertility impact and population structure change, this study explores the impact of population as a driving factor on China's commercial housing market. Combined with the reality of our country, this paper through theoretical analysis. Normative analysis and empirical analysis demonstrate how different intergenerational fertility levels, population age structure and population spatial structure affect the commercial housing market. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first. Under the influence of intergenerational wealth transfer, the population shock and its low fertility level in the middle age are the important factors to promote the rise of house price in recent years. Because of the possibility of intergenerational wealth transfer. Different intergenerational fertility levels will have a greater impact on housing prices. Based on this, this study constructs a generational overlap model with different intergenerational fertility levels. This paper theoretically analyzes the change of intergenerational fertility level and how intergenerational wealth transfer behavior affects the price of commercial housing. The theoretical analysis and empirical research results show that the lower the fertility level in the middle age. The higher the level of wealth transferred to each individual generation of youth, the greater the wealth flows into the real estate market and the rise in house prices. Second, in the process of changing the age structure of the population. At the present stage, the age distribution of the olive type population is just the population structure conducive to the development of the commercial housing market. This is the "demographic dividend" of the commercial housing market. Studies based on microcosmic and macro data show that under the condition of constant population, less juvenile population will lead to the increase of sales volume and selling price of commercial housing. Affected by the diversified housing demand of the elderly population, the current increase of the elderly population will not only not restrain the prosperity of the commercial housing market, but will promote the increase of the sales volume and the sales price of the commercial housing. Third. The urbanization level and population migration in the population spatial structure are the driving factors of the urban commercial housing market. The empirical research results based on the census data and statistical data at the urban level show that:. The rate of urbanization and the proportion of people moving will have a significant positive impact on the sales volume and selling price of commercial housing. And the price of commercial housing is more flexible to the migration of population. Whether we can absorb more foreign population will be an important chip for the sustainable development of urban commercial housing market in the future. The research in this paper has strong theoretical and practical significance. This study broadens the research field of population transition theory and constructs the intergenerational overlapping model which includes different intergenerational fertility levels. On the one hand, the study of this paper is helpful to understand the rapid development of the commercial housing market in China in the past period of time, on the other hand, it is helpful to grasp the future development of the commercial housing market in China, which is of great importance to the government. Developers and individual buyers have a certain reference value and reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.23

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