人口老龄化、代际冲突与公共政策研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 01:28

本文关键词：人口老龄化、代际冲突与公共政策研究　出处：《华中科技大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济发展和人口预期寿命的增长,人口老龄化成为世界各国面临的共同问题。无论从理论上分析还是参照发达国家的历史经验,人口老龄化必将对社会经济各方面带来深远的影响。由于不同年龄群体的需求和偏好的差异性,人口老龄化不仅仅意味着人口结构的变化,并且可能改变代际间的利益格局和政治格局,进而影响政府的公共政策。代际冲突为研究人口老龄化的影响提供了新的视角。在代际冲突的机制下,人口老龄化会影响政府公共政策的选择,也会影响政策的传导路径和效果。为了检验代际冲突是否存在,以及在代际冲突的作用下人口老龄化对公共政策的影响,本文采用了七个章节展开研究。首先,从中国特殊的人口老龄化背景出发,阐述了人口老龄化影响财政政策和货币政策的理论解释,并梳理了有关代际冲突的经济学解释和研究进展。然后,使用全国性的微观调查数据,检验个体在公共资源配置的主观偏好上是否存在代际冲突,检验老年人和年轻人在对通货膨胀和失业的主观态度上是否也存在代际冲突。在此基础上,使用省级面板数据,从客观上考察人口老龄化对财政支出结构的影响以及人口老龄化对通货膨胀与失业率的替代弹性的影响。以上述两个角度的研究结果为例,论证并检验了代际冲突的作用下人口老龄化对财政政策选择和货币政策的传导路径的影响。最后,基于本文的研究结果提出了针对性的政策建议。实证研究是本文的主体,主要得出以下四个结论：(1)个体的公共资源配置主观偏好存在代际冲突。基于CGSS2005和CGSS 2006微观调查数据的实证研究结果表明,年龄越大的居民,对公共教育支出的支持意愿越低；同时,年龄越大的居民，越倾向于认为医疗卫生和养老金等与老年人密切相关的公共支出比公共教育支出更加重要和紧迫。(2)人口老龄化的进程中,政府财政支出结构存在代际冲突。基于2001-2010年的省级面板数据的实证研究表明,人口老龄化程度对公共教育支出强度有显著的负向影响,同时对非教育类的公共支出强度没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,人口老龄化并未对全社会教育经费产生负向影响,仅仅对公共教育支出有显著负面影响。以上实证结果表明,中国的特殊背景和人口老龄化进程导致公共部门和私人部门对资源配置的博弈结果是,私人希望加大家庭的教育投入,在受教育竞争中获得领先优势,而养老方面的需求倾向于最大程度地依赖于公共部门的投入。随着人口老龄化,政府的公共资源配置存在从年轻人向老年人转移的现象。(3)个体对通货膨胀和失业率的主观偏好存在代际冲突。通货膨胀和失业率是货币政策传导路径的重要指标,两者呈此消彼长的负向关系。基于CGSS2010微观调查数据的实证研究表明,相对于年轻人,通货膨胀对老年人的主观幸福感和再分配偏好的影响更大；相对应的是,失业率对年轻人的主观幸福感和再分配偏好的影响更大。(4)人口老龄化对货币政策的传导路径(通货膨胀与失业率的替代弹性)产生了显著影响。基于理论模型的推演,并使用2001-2012年的省级面板数据进行的实证研究结果表明,人口老龄化程度越高,通货膨胀和失业率之间的替代弹性越小。随着人口老龄化程度的提高，整个社会对通货膨胀的容忍度会降低。本文的政策含义主要有三点：一是要积极应对人口老龄化对劳动力供给、消费和投资等方面的影响,保持经济持续稳定的增长,为完善社会保障体系和提高社会保障水平提供经济来源。同时,加快完善社会养老保障体系,借鉴国际经验大力发展商业保险并提倡家庭养老,减轻老龄化对公共财政的压力；二是在人口老龄化的进程中应该客观认识并积极应对代际冲突,理性地调整相关政策。例如在人口老龄化的特定阶段应该提高公共教育支出强度,避免为解决人口老龄化问题而压缩公共教育投入的短视之举。三是政府应该提供一些具有代际正向外部性的政策或公共服务,在一定范围内调解或弱化代际冲突。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the life expectancy of the population growth, population aging has become a common problem facing the world. No matter from the theoretical analysis and referring to the historical experience of the developed countries, population aging will bring profound influence to the social and economic aspects. Due to differences in different age groups of the needs and preferences of the aging population. Not only means the change of the population structure, and may change the pattern of interests and the political situation between the generations, thereby affecting the public policy of the government. The intergenerational conflict provides a new perspective for the impact of population aging. The mechanism of intergenerational conflict, the aging of the population will affect the government's public policy choice, will also affect the policy the conduction path and effect. In order to test the existence of intergenerational conflict, and intergenerational conflict under the impact of population aging on public policy, the The seven chapter is researched. Firstly, starting from the Chinese special background of population aging, expounds the impact of population aging fiscal policy and monetary policy theory, and reviews the progress of economics explanation about the intergenerational conflict and research. Then, using the micro survey data nationwide, the existence of intergenerational conflict test individual the subjective preferences in the allocation of public resources, inspection of the elderly and young people are on inflation and unemployment also exists on the subjective attitude of intergenerational conflict. On this basis, using the provincial panel data, investigation of the population aging of the elasticity of substitution effect on inflation and unemployment on the effect of fiscal expenditure structure and the aging population from objective to study the two aspects. The results of case study, demonstration and testing of the intergenerational conflict under the effect of population aging on fiscal policy and monetary policy Effect of conduction path strategy. Finally, the research results of this paper are put forward based on the specific policy recommendations. The empirical research is the main body of this paper, the main draw the following four conclusions: (1) there are conflicts of individual subjective preferences of the allocation of public resources. The empirical research results of CGSS2005 and CGSS 2006 micro survey data show that based on the older residents, the lower the public education expenditure will support; at the same time, older residents, more inclined to think that health care and pensions are closely related to the elderly public expenditure than public expenditure on education is more important and urgent. (2) the process of population aging, intergenerational conflict of government the structure of fiscal expenditure. The panel data of 2001-2010 years showed that based on the degree of population aging has a significant negative impact on public education expenditure intensity, while the non education class Public expenditure intensity has no significant effect. Further studies showed that the aging of the population did not have a negative effect on the whole social education funds, only has significant negative impact on the public education expenditure. The empirical results show that the special background and the process of population aging Chinese led to the public and private sectors in the allocation of resources is the result of the game, private to increase investment in education and family education, get ahead in the competition, and the pension needs tend to maximize the dependence on public sector investment. With the aging of the population, the allocation of public resources and government transfer from young to old people. (3) the individual existence of subjective intergenerational conflict the preference of inflation and unemployment. Inflation and unemployment rate is an important indicator of monetary policy transmission path, both showed a reciprocal negative relationship. Based on the CGSS20 An empirical study of 10 micro survey data show that compared with the young people, the impact of inflation on subjective well-being of older people and redistribution preference more; correspondingly, the unemployment rate affects on young people's subjective well-being and redistribution of preference more. (4) the population aging pathway on monetary policy (the elasticity of substitution inflation and unemployment) have a significant impact. The theoretical model of the deduction based on the results of empirical research and using provincial panel data during 2001-2012. The results showed that the higher the degree of population aging, the elasticity of substitution between inflation and unemployment is smaller. The higher degree of population aging, the whole society to inflation the tolerance will be reduced. The policy implication of this paper has three main points: one is to actively cope with the population aging on labor supply, consumption and investment effect and so on, to keep the economy Sustained and stable growth, in order to improve the social security system and provide a source of economic improvement of social security. At the same time, accelerate the improvement of social security system, using international experience to develop the commercial insurance and promote family pension, reduce the aging of the public finance pressure; two should objectively understand and actively respond to the intergenerational conflict in the aging population in the process, rationally adjust relevant policies. For example, at any particular stage of population aging should increase the intensity of public education expenditure, avoid to solve the problem of population aging and compression short-sighted investment in public education. The three is that the government should provide some of the intergenerational positive externality policy or public service, or weaken the intergenerational conflict in mediation range.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2;D630

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