村镇震后应急救援及重建的决策方法与模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 11:49

  本文关键词： 村镇 地震灾害 应急救援 恢复重建 决策方法与模型　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：广大村镇是我国受地震灾害影响及受灾情况最为严重的地区,同时也是应急救援的薄弱环节、亟需加强恢复重建工作的重灾区。与城市相比,我国村镇承灾体更加脆弱易受破坏,极大加剧了地震灾害对村镇造成的不利影响和损失程度,延误恢复重建进度,给村镇震后的应急救援及重建决策工作带来严峻挑战,而这主要与应急救援决策者的决策水平和决策方法直接相关。因此,依据村镇承灾体特性、地震灾害相关理论,通过对村镇震后灾情状况、灾情信息规律进行分析,结合村镇与城市震后应急救援及重建差异,构建村镇震后灾情信息集成、村镇震后应急救援及重建决策的研究框架、决策方法与模型,为村镇震后应急救援及重建决策提供科学的理论和方法指导,提高村镇应急救援及恢复重建效率,确保各项工作顺利进行。然而,现有的针对村镇应急救援及重建决策的理论和方法较为欠缺,多照搬城市,未结合村镇实际地域情境,缺乏对村镇地震灾害特点、村镇承灾环境、村镇社会环境、村镇自身承灾体特性以及村镇与城市差异等因素的针对性及系统性研究,缺乏涵盖从村镇震后应急救援到恢复重建过程的相关决策理论体系及针对性的决策方法,且多数的研究方法通常集中于定性方面,很少有相关研究涉及量化方面。因此,为提升政府等决策主体面对村镇地震灾害的应急决策水平,有必要构建村镇震后应急救援及重建决策理论体系,涵盖从灾情分析、应急救援到恢复重建的决策工作,在此基础上对决策方法进行系统、定量及应用研究,目前涉及上述研究内容的相关文献较少。本文以村镇震后应急救援及恢复重建决策相关理论、村镇震后应急救援及重建决策研究的方法与模型框架作为理论基础,从村镇与城市震后应急救援及重建差异分析入手,构建涵盖决策主体、决策系统、决策目标、决策准则的村镇震后应急救援及重建决策研究框架,采用系统动力学模型,动态网络模型,改进的免疫谱聚类Nystr?m遗传算法,改进的粒子群优化神经网络(MPSOBP)算法,群决策算法,马尔科夫最优停止模型,改进的恢复力三角函数等定性与定量相结合的多种研究方法,提出村镇震后灾情信息分析方法、应急救援决策方法以及重建决策方法,并通过发生在我国村镇灾区的地震灾害真实案例进行实证分析,检验方法的有效性。为村镇灾区的灾情信息集成分析、灾情信息披露影响应急救援效用分析、灾情突发期的生命救援决策、灾情持续期的临时安置决策、灾情衰落期的终止救援决策以及灾后平静期的恢复重建决策行为提供理论体系支撑和方法支持。本文面向决策主体及村镇灾民,构建面向村镇震后应急救援决策的灾情信息集成模型,以及灾情信息披露影响村镇震后应急救援决策效用的网络模型。通过分析村镇灾情信息概念、分类及规律,依据灾情信息集成原理,研究灾情信息集成系统内、外部因素的相互作用和关系,构建面向村镇震后应急救援决策的灾情信息集成模型,为村镇灾情信息转化为决策信息的过程提供理论与方法支持,并对集成系统各集成环节进行分析,探究其相互作用原理和机制;从灾情信息对村镇灾区灾民的影响角度,采用管理学中网络思想,构建灾情信息披露影响决策效用的网络模型,考察灾情信息披露对村镇应急救援效用的影响,从而得出决策主体在实行不同的灾情披露机制下,对村镇灾民及决策效用产生的影响,明确作为决策主体为达到决策目标应采取的行为措施。本文建立多种村镇震后应急救援决策方法模型,依据村镇震后应急救援任务和阶段划分,进行村镇震后应急救援决策方法研究。按照村镇震后各应急救援阶段的决策需求,建立基于易损性的村镇震后灾情突发期人口救援决策模型、基于MPSOBP的村镇震后物资救援决策模型、村镇震后灾情持续期临时安置决策模型、基于Markov最优的村镇震后应急救援终止决策模型,并进行实例应用分析,分别对村镇震后的生命救援、临时安置、终止救援等方面提供理论及方法支持,并进行实证分析检验。本文构建村镇震后恢复重建决策模型,以及基于优先度的村镇路网重建决策模型。村镇的震后恢复重建工作,往往要将原有废墟推平,对村镇灾区重新进行规划和建设。通过构建村镇震后恢复重建决策模型,对地震灾害恢复力三角模型进行改进,为村镇灾区恢复力的量化提供更为简便、准确的计算方法,从村镇恢复重建期最主要的四个恢复维度:人口、建筑物、基础设施、经济水平等四个方面,进行恢复力量化的研究,以分析和评价村镇灾区的恢复速度;同时结合村镇灾区交通路网的震后特点,计算恢复优先度,构建基于优先度的村镇路网重建决策模型,从而确定恢复重建期的村镇交通路网恢复顺序。本文以应急救援及恢复重建相关理论和决策方法模型为基础,通过分析村镇与城市震后差异,构建村镇震后应急救援及重建决策研究框架和决策方法的量化模型,旨在弥补目前村镇震后应急救援决策及重建研究理论和决策方法定量分析的不足,有望对我国未来加快乡村小城镇防灾减灾建设提供决策支持,为提升村镇应急救援及重建决策效率和水平,加强并完善村镇应急管理理论与方法体系建设,为政府为主的决策主体在村镇震后应急救援以及恢复重建决策工作中提供理论依据和方法支持。
[Abstract]:The village is in our country is affected by the earthquake disaster and the disaster situation is the most serious area, the weak link is also an urgent need to strengthen emergency rescue, recovery and reconstruction work in the hardest hit. Compared with the city, our country rural disaster more vulnerable vulnerable, greatly increasing the extent of earthquake disaster on the village caused by adverse effects and loss, delay reconstruction progress, bring severe challenges to the emergency rescue and reconstruction work after the earthquake and village decision-making, decision-making level and decision-making method mainly with emergency decision makers directly related. Therefore, based on the characteristics of rural disaster bearing body, earthquake disaster related theory, through the village post earthquake disaster situation, disaster information analysis and combined with the emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and the city after the earthquake, the earthquake disaster difference, constructing information integration, the research framework of post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of rural decision-making, decision-making The method and model, provide the theory and method of scientific guidance for rural reconstruction and post earthquake emergency rescue decision-making, improve rural emergency relief and recovery efficiency, ensure the smooth progress of the work. However, the existing theories and methods for the rural emergency rescue and reconstruction decision is not much, copy the city, not with the actual situation of rural areas. Lack of the characteristics of the earthquake disaster village, Cun Zhencheng village environment, social environment, and its bearing characteristics and disaster factors such as differences in the village and the city for the research and system, lack of cover from the village post earthquake emergency rescue to the restoration and reconstruction of the theoretical system for decision-making and decision methods, and most of the research methods usually focus on the qualitative aspect, there are few studies involving the quantification. Therefore, in order to improve the government decision-making body face of rural earthquake disasters should Emergency decision level, it is necessary to build the rural reconstruction and post earthquake emergency rescue decision theory system, ranging from disaster analysis, emergency rescue to the restoration and reconstruction of the decision, on the basis of the decision making method of system, quantitative research and application, the relevant literature little involves the research contents of this paper. In the post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and towns decision theory, method of earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of rural policy research and model framework as the theoretical basis, starting from the analysis of emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and the city after the difference, construction covers the decision-making body, decision-making system, decision-making, decision rule, earthquake emergency rescue and rebuilding rural decision-making research framework, using the system dynamics model, dynamic the network model, the improved immune spectral clustering Nystr? M genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization improved neural network algorithm (MPSOBP), group The decision algorithm, the Markoff optimal stopping model, a variety of research methods to improve the resilience of trigonometric function as the combination of qualitative and quantitative, and give the earthquake disaster emergency rescue information analysis method, decision method and decision making method of reconstruction, and through an analysis of real cases occurred in China earthquake disaster stricken villages, verify the effectiveness of the method for disaster information analysis of village disaster, emergency rescue effect analysis of disaster information disclosure, life rescue decision disaster emergency period, the duration of the temporary resettlement decision-making, disaster rescue decision and the termination of the period of decline after the disaster quiet period to provide theoretical support and method support system restoration decision-making behavior. The decision subject village and victims of disaster information integration model construction for rural earthquake emergency rescue decision, and disaster information disclosure. Ring network model village post earthquake emergency rescue decision utility. Through the analysis of rural disaster information concept, classification and rules, according to the principle of integrated disaster information, disaster information system integration, interaction and relationship between external factors, construction of information integration model for the village after the earthquake disaster emergency rescue decision, for the village into providing disaster information the theory and method of decision support process information, and the integrated part of the integrated system for analysis, to explore the interaction principle and mechanism; from the impact of disaster information on rural disaster victims angle, the management of network ideological construction, disaster information disclosure influence network model of decision utility, disaster investigation information disclosure effect rescue utility the emergency of the village, so that decision-makers in the implementation of different disaster disclosure mechanism, produced by the use of rural victims and decision. Influence of decision-makers is to clear as the decision goal should take action measures. This paper establishes a model of Emergency Rescue Decision Method of various villages and towns after the earthquake, according to division of emergency rescue missions and stage of villages and towns after the earthquake, the emergency rescue decision method. According to the village after village town after the emergency rescue stage of the decision-making needs, the establishment of village post earthquake disaster emergency period population vulnerability based on Rescue Decision Model, rural earthquake aid decision-making model based on MPSOBP, and the duration of the earthquake disaster temporary resettlement village post earthquake emergency rescue decision model, Markov optimal termination decision model based on application and analysis of village life rescue, after the earthquake were temporary resettlement, termination and provide relief and support, and makes an empirical test and analysis. In this paper, constructing the village reconstruction model, and Rural network reconstruction decision model based on the priority of the village. The post earthquake reconstruction work, often to the original ruins push, re planning and construction of rural disaster areas. Through the construction of village reconstruction on the decision model of restoring force of earthquake disaster triangle model was modified to provide quantitative restoring force for the village area is more convenient, accurate calculation methods, the four dimensions of recovery from the village reconstruction of the main population, buildings, infrastructure, four aspects such as economic level, study the strength, to restore the speed of analysis and evaluation of rural areas after the earthquake disaster; combined with the characteristics of the rural road network, the calculation of priority construction of rural network reconstruction, decision model based on priority, so as to determine the rural transportation network reconstruction in the recovery phase sequence. This paper takes emergency relief and recovery phase Model theory and decision method as the foundation, through the analysis of differences between rural and city construction in villages and towns after the earthquake, quantitative model of post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction decision research framework and methods of decision making, to compensate for the lack of the analysis of rural post earthquake emergency rescue decision and reconstruction of the theory and decision making method was, on China's future is expected to accelerate the construction of disaster prevention and reduction small towns in rural areas to provide decision support for emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and towns to improve decision-making efficiency and level, strengthen and improve the rural emergency management theory and method of system construction, to provide a theoretical basis and support for the government as the main decision making body in the villages to the post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction work in decision-making.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63
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本文编号：1459977