放松生育管控效应评估与优化研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 00:13

本文关键词： 全面二孩政策效应评估多阶段决策双目标决策政策优化　出处：《中国农业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为应对人口结构失衡引发的各种社会经济问题,2015年底中国实施了表征为放松生育管控的全面二孩政策。但对于此项政策的效果,学者依然存在诸多疑问,如放松生育管控是否会提高产出,协助中国顺利实现百年目标?是否会改善劳动人口福利,落实政策生育力量;是否会从根本上改变未来的养老模式选择,改善未来社会的养老状况;全面二孩政策是否存在不足?若存在,应该选择何种配套性政策加以规避。若依然不能有效规避,在全面二孩政策之后,应该安排何种生育政策,等等。针对上述问题,主要采用多阶段决策方法进行研究发现:首先,放松生育管控改变不了未来产出增速断崖式下降的趋势;在产出和人均产出上,短期存在轻微的挤占效应,长期存在较大的提升效应。若民众按照政策生育且缺乏配套政策,放松生育管控短期会轻微降低劳动人口福利;长期较大改善未来劳动人口或当前孩子未来的福利。这意味着在生育堆积力量释放以后,民众很可能不会有效响应全面二孩政策,长期通过生育实现的政策目标很可能无法落实。虽然放松生育管控没有从根本上改变未来最优的养老模式选择,短期又轻微降低了对老年人的代际支持水平,不能有效应对养老汛期,但是在当前代际赡养模式下,长期改善了未来老年人口或者当前劳动人口未来的养老状况。这意味着养老制度应朝着积累制或缴费确定的方向变轨;为了改善未来社会的养老状况,当前我们应积极落实全面二孩政策,为应对短期的养老汛期,应着眼于其他政策调整和养老生产率提高。综合放松生育管控在产出、福利及养老上的长短期效应,对于社会,按照政策生育,短期轻微有害,长期却较有利,整体上利大于弊。其次,为避免放松生育管控短期在产出、福利以及代际支持水平上的负面影响。通过模拟发现,在实行全面二孩政策过程中,配套实施延迟退休等措施,可以提高社会产出,弥补生育的成本,在理论上,可以规避放松生育管控的负面影响。考虑到配套性措施实施的难度和滞后性,未来城镇化下家庭生育行为的变迁,全面二孩政策越来越无法解决后工业化时代生育行为的外部性,无法释放保障社会福利的政策生育力量。从生育权安排的视角,构建一个双目标决策模型,探讨未来可能选择的生育政策。结果显示,在全面二孩政策之后,中国很可能选择家庭自由生育政策。虽然家庭自由生育可以保障家庭福利,但是随着社会从马尔萨斯陷阱过渡到低生育陷阱,家庭自由生育依然不能解决生育的外部性和保障社会福利,所以生育政策进一步的优化方向应从家庭自由生育向有限制的生育权方向探索。最后,在人口红利逐渐消失和全面二孩政策刚实施的背景下,针对学者的疑惑,本文尝试把对生育、养老以及其他配套性政策的探讨放在一个框架内,及时系统地评估了全面二孩政策的社会经济效应,以及基于评估结果优化配套性措施和全面二孩政策。在某种程度上,本文的研究可能会为学者在上述问题上解答疑惑,也可能会为决策者在后续生育和配套制度安排上提供参考。最终通过生育和配套性政策的实施,解决人口结构失衡引发的各种社会经济问题,促进人口、经济以及社会的均衡和可持续发展。
[Abstract]:All kinds of social and economic problems to deal with the unbalance of population structure, by the end of 2015 the implementation of the China characterization of relaxed control comprehensive fertility two child policy. But the effect of this policy, there are still many scholars doubt, such as birth control will relax and improve output, assist China smoothly hundred years will improve the working population? Welfare, implement the policy of family power; will not change the pension mode in the future to radically improve future social pension status; comprehensive two child policy if there is insufficient? If there is, what kind of supporting policy should choose to avoid. If you still can't avoid, after the two child policy, what family should arrange policy, and so on. To solve these problems, mainly using the method of multi stage decision research findings: first, relax control can not change the future output growth rate of cliff The downward trend; in output and per capita output, there is a slight short-term crowding out effect, long-term existence of larger lifting effect. If the people in accordance with the family planning policy and the lack of supporting policies, relax control will slightly reduce the labor growth short-term population welfare; improved long-term future workforce or the current children's future welfare. This means that in the family the accumulation of power after the release, the public may not effectively respond to a comprehensive two child policy, through long-term fertility policy objectives may not be able to achieve the implementation. Although the choice of pension model did not change the future optimal control to relax fertility fundamentally, short-term and slightly decreased the level of support for the elderly generation, can not effectively deal with pension flood, but in the current intergenerational support mode, improve the long-term future of elderly population or the current workforce future pension. This means raising The old system should be accumulated or determine the direction of transfer payment; in order to improve the future of social endowment situation, we should actively implement the comprehensive two child policy to deal with short-term pension flood, should focus on other policy adjustments and improve the productivity of old-age fertility control. Comprehensive relaxation in output, short and long term effects, and welfare pension for society, in accordance with the policy, a slight short-term harmful, but long-term favorable, whole outweigh the disadvantages. Secondly, in order to avoid short-term growth in output to relax control, negative welfare and intergenerational support level influence. According to the simulation, in the implementation of a comprehensive two child policy process, supporting the implementation of delay retirement such measures can improve social output, make up for the cost of fertility, in theory, can avoid the negative influence of birth control to relax. Considering the implementation of supporting measures of the degree of difficulty and lag, the future of the city The change of the reproductive behavior of the families in town, external comprehensive two child policy more and more can not solve the fertility behavior of post industrialization era, unable to release the social welfare and security policy of family power. Arrangement from the angle of childbearing right, constructing a double objective decision-making model, to explore the possible future choice of fertility policy. The results show that after all the two child policy, Chinese is likely to choose family free family planning policy. Although family reproductive freedom can protect the welfare of the family, but with the social transition to Malthus from the trap of low fertility trap, family reproductive freedom is still not solve the birth of externality and social welfare and security, so the fertility policy further optimization from the direction of family reproductive freedom to explore family the right direction is limited. Finally, gradually disappeared in the demographic dividend and the comprehensive implementation of the two child policy just under the background, in view of the suspect Or, this paper attempts to study on fertility, pension and other supporting policies in a timely assessment system within the framework of the overall social and economic effect of the two child policy, and the evaluation results of optimization of supporting measures and policies based on the full two children. To some extent, this study may for scholars to answer on the issue of doubt, may also provide a reference for decision makers in the subsequent growth and supporting institutional arrangements. Finally through the implementation of fertility and supporting policy, to solve the unbalanced population structure caused by a variety of social and economic problems, promote population, economy and society in a balanced and sustainable development.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21

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