东南亚国家对冲战略的动因（1997-2015）

发布时间：2018-03-11 04:08

  本文选题：中国崛起　切入点：大国安全竞争　出处：《清华大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文试图解释的核心困惑是,东南亚国家为何在1997年亚洲金融危机之后普遍采取对冲战略而非制衡以应对中国崛起带来的冲击?研究发现,东南亚国家作为典型的中小国家有着较为强烈的对冲倾向,即希望并行不悖地发展与邻近大国的安全关系,以缓解其安全依赖和独立自主两个目标之间的内在张力。不过,这种对冲倾向能否转化为政策实践则受到邻近大国安全竞争性质的显著影响。具体而言,在大国对抗性竞争时期,东南亚国家几乎没有对冲的战略空间,追随特定大国因此成为其普遍选择;在不存在大国安全竞争的时期,东南亚国家则普遍寻求弱化既有的安全依赖。而在大国包容性竞争时期,东南亚国家普遍具备对冲的战略空间,奉行对冲战略因此成为这些国家的普遍趋势。1997年亚洲金融危机以来,中美两国之间的安全竞争呈现出典型的包容性特征,东南亚国家因此获得了较为充裕的对冲战略空间,对冲战略随之成为这些国家的普遍选择。研究表明,中美包容性竞争主要源于中国崛起进程中面临着较为突出的安全压力,这种压力不仅源于美国的综合实力优势,更来自于美国的东亚安全保护体系。通过提供安全保护,美国赢得了日本、韩国、澳大利亚、菲律宾、泰国和新加坡等盟友和安全伙伴对其主导地位的认可和支持。为缓解美国安全保护体系的压力,中国一方面尽力维持中美战略关系稳定,另一方面坚持睦邻友好政策,深化与东亚国家的全方位合作,从而塑造了中美包容性安全竞争的局面。随着中国实力的持续上升和安抚战略取得进展,2008年金融危机以来,中美包容性竞争态势局部有所弱化。一方面,美国强化了其在东亚地区的安全存在,并随之促使其部分安全保护伙伴奉行更为对抗性的对华政策。另一方面,中国为缓解压力在部分安全议题上采取了更为进取的政策。中美包容性竞争的局部弱化使得东南亚国家的对冲战略空间有所缩小,对冲随之出现了分化。菲律宾和越南的对冲战略空间被显著压缩,菲律宾甚至转向制衡战略;印尼、马来西亚和新加坡则不得不在中美之间采取更为谨慎地平衡战略。而此前没有受到中美安全竞争影响的缅甸、泰国和柬埔寨等国也开始因与一方接近而受到另一方的压力。不过,在美国实力优势较为突出及其安全保护体系得以延续的背景下,中美包容性竞争整体转向对抗性竞争的可能性较小。因此,东南亚国家的普遍对冲倾向将能够得以延续。为塑造更为有利的地区安全环境,中国有必要在东亚主要安全问题上保持总体克制,同时恰当选择进取时机和对象。
[Abstract]:The central puzzle this paper attempts to explain is why did Southeast Asian countries generally adopt hedging strategies rather than checks and balances to deal with the impact of China's rise after the Asian financial crisis in 1997? The study found that Southeast Asian countries, as typical small and medium-sized countries, have a strong hedging tendency, that is, they want to develop security relations with neighboring powers side by side. In order to alleviate the inherent tension between their security dependence and independence. However, whether this hedging tendency can be translated into policy practice is significantly affected by the nature of security competition in neighbouring powers. During the period of confrontational competition between great powers, Southeast Asian countries had little strategic space to hedge, so it became a common choice for Southeast Asian countries to follow a particular big country; when there was no great power security competition, Southeast Asian countries generally seek to weaken their existing security dependence. In the period of inclusive competition among big countries, Southeast Asian countries generally have the strategic space for hedging. Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the security competition between China and the United States has taken on a typical inclusive character, thus giving Southeast Asian countries ample hedging strategy space. As a result, hedging strategies have become a common choice for these countries. Research shows that inclusive competition between China and the United States is mainly due to the prominent security pressures facing China in the process of its rise, not only because of the comprehensive strength advantage of the United States, but also because of the overall strength of the United States. The East Asian security protection system from the United States. By providing security protection, the United States has won over Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore and other allies and security partners recognize and support their leading position. In order to ease the pressure on the US security protection system, China, on the one hand, makes every effort to maintain a stable strategic relationship between China and the United States, on the other hand, it adheres to the policy of good-neighborly friendship. Deepening all-round cooperation with East Asian countries has shaped the situation of inclusive security competition between China and the United States. As China's strength continues to rise and its strategy of appeasing progress, since the financial crisis in 2008, On the one hand, the United States has strengthened its security presence in the East Asia region, and subsequently prompted some of its security protection partners to pursue a more confrontational China policy. China has adopted more aggressive policies on some security issues in order to ease the pressure. The partial weakening of inclusive competition between China and the United States has narrowed the hedging strategy space of Southeast Asian countries. Hedging has become divisive. The Philippines and Vietnam's hedging strategy space has been significantly reduced, and the Philippines has even turned to a counterbalancing strategy; Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have had to adopt a more cautious balancing strategy between China and the United States. Myanmar, which has not been affected by the security competition between China and the United States, Countries such as Thailand and Cambodia are also beginning to come under pressure from the other for being close to one side. Inclusive competition between China and the United States as a whole is less likely to shift to confrontational competition. As a result, the general hedging trend in Southeast Asian countries will continue. In order to create a more favourable regional security environment, It is necessary for China to exercise general restraint on major security issues in East Asia and to choose the right timing and target.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D833
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本文编号：1596488